We now have 11 weeks of data to help influence our Week 12 NFL DFS decisions, and while those surface stats are helpful, the public tends to overvalue basic numbers like yards and TDs. This creates solid buy-low opportunities over the next few weeks as sharp daily fantasy football players fade guys likely to regress and target guys who have been getting opportunities but just haven't produced yet. By looking at ownership projections on RotoGrinders, we can ensure that differentiation we need to win big in DraftKings and FanDuel tournaments and the rest of our fantasy contests.
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Now, let's get into the projected ownership breakdown for NFL Week 12!
WEEK 12 DFS LINEUPS:
FD cash | FD GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | Y! cash | Y! GPP
Week 12 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
HIGH: Baker Mayfield, Browns vs. Dolphins (9.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 10.6% on DraftKings). Mayfield steps into a meeting with a lowly Dolphins defense that has hemorrhaged production to QBs all year and is fresh off allowing a monster performance to the Josh Allen-John Brown combination. He’s expected to be one of the three or four most popular QBs on the slate, but I don’t see the ceiling necessary to want to jump on board here. Mayfield doesn’t add enough with his legs, and while his weapons are still above average, this also doesn’t appear to be a spot where a back-and-forth affair leads to inflated stat totals. I’d much prefer either Jameis Winston or Jeff Driskel, both of whom are priced in the same range. Mayfield won’t be in my player pool come Sunday.
HIGH: Carson Wentz, Eagles vs. Seahawks (8.3% pOWN on FanDuel, 12.4% on DraftKings). I like slates where I’m in favor of fading some of the most popular options at the QB spot – that alone can lead to a lot of differentiation. Wentz is another one I’m not high on. I’m a little worried that the injuries to his tackles -- the most serious being Lane Johnson who will not play, while Jason Peters dealt with an in-game injury against NE and has had a tough time staying on the field the last two seasons. Seattle’s defense certainly isn’t what it used to be and it struggles to generate pressure, but the offensive line issues plus a gimpy Alshon Jeffery and no DeSean Jackson doesn’t give him the ceiling I’m looking for at his price/ownership.
Notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Josh Allen (vs. Broncos), Jeff Driskel (@ Redskins)
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MORE WEEK 12 DFS: Values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
Week 12 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
HIGH: Le’Veon Bell, Jets vs. Raiders (13.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 23.4% on DraftKings). He’s expected to gain more traction on DraftKings, which is sensible given his style, but I don’t think Bell deserves to be one of the most popular backs on the slate – he leads the way in pOWN on DraftKings. The usage is there, but the efficiency is not, and he’s also struggled to find the end zone with any consistency. He’s likely to continue regressing positively in that sense, but his own offense is the biggest thing working against him. Bell is not finding running lanes like he did in Pittsburgh, and despite a healthy allotment of carries this year, he’s failed to top 70 rushing yards in a game to this point. I just can’t buy in here at this ownership.
HIGH: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers @ Saints (27.5% pOWN on FanDuel, 18.0% on DraftKings). I generally like to write about some players I actually want exposure to, but knowing who to avoid is helpful in its own right. The McCaffrey fade has become more and more interesting as the weeks have gone by, and his price continued to climb. He started this season off on an otherworldly pace and hasn’t fallen off much in the past two weeks, but he’s slowly descended back to earth and steps into one of his toughest draws of the year on Sunday. At his price against a stingy New Orleans defense that will surely scheme to make Kyle Allen beat them, I can’t justify being overweight on C-Mac. I’ll happily save a few thousand in cap space and roster the back on the other side of this matchup, Alvin Kamara, whose team I expect to do far more scoring.
Notable RBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: David Montgomery (vs. Giants), Ronald Jones (@ Falcons), Devin Singletary (vs. Broncos), Phillip Lindsey (@ Bills)
Other notable RBs that I think are being overvalued: Nick Chubb (vs. Dolphins)
WEEK 12 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 12 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
HIGH: Jarvis Landry, Browns vs. Dolphins (11.4% pOWN on FanDuel, 10.0% on DraftKings). Like Mayfield, I’ll be way underweight on Landry relative to the field. People seem to be talking up the revenge aspect, but it’s been a few years since Landry was in Miami and this game is being played in Cleveland, plus the staff/roster on the Dolphins side is considerably different than it was in Landry’s time there. As he’s always been, Landry relies on volume to make up for his lack of big-play ability, and while he’s scored in three straight games, he’s not always consistent in terms of finding the painted grass. He’s inside the top 10 on both sites in projected ownership at a mildly inflated price tag, so I’ll pass.
LOW: D.J. Moore, Panthers @ Saints (6.9% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.3% on DraftKings). If I’m not going to invest in McCaffrey while investing in the Saints offense, I’ll run it back with someone else associated with the Panthers passing attack. New Orleans still figures to be without Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), which is great news for the Carolina receivers, most notably Moore. His usage is still in line with a top-tier WR despite a weak-armed Kyle Allen chucking him the ball, and he’s due for some serious TD regression given the volume of looks he’s received to this point. Moore was one of the most popular value plays at WR over the past month but seems to have lost some steam with the public. This is a good time to stay the course.
Other notable WRs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Dede Westbrook (@ Titans), Alshon Jeffery (vs. Seahawks), N’Keal Harry (vs. Cowboys), Allen Hurns (@ Browns)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: Josh Gordon (@ Eagles), Russell Gage (vs. Buccaneers)
WEEK 12 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 12 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
HIGH: Greg Olsen, Panthers @ Saints (9.1% pOWN on FanDuel, 9.9% on DraftKings). Yet another thing working in D.J. Moore’s favor is the talent that the Saints have at safety and linebacker, which should keep Olsen’s usage/stat line in check. He’s projected to be the third-most popular TE on both major sites, but I’ll aim to be way underweight there. The Panthers figure to struggle putting points on the board, so Moore will likely be the one player on this side that I’m overweight on. I’d much prefer the TE on the other sideline here, Jared Cook, and guys like Mike Gesicki and Vance McDonald look like better targets at a cheaper price tag.
HIGH: Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. Seahawks (8.5% pOWN on FanDuel, 9.4% on DraftKings). Another fade candidate here. I just don’t think the volume will warrant rostering him in GPPs, especially given that he’s expected to be one of the five most popular TEs on the main slate. He’ll have to do battle with another TE on his own roster for looks, and while I am very interested in Zach Ertz’s services this weekend, Goedert’s role with Alshon Jeffery likely returning isn’t nearly as clear.
Notable TEs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Mike Gesicki (@ Browns), Vance McDonald (@ Bengals), Noah Fant (@ Bills)
Other notable TEs that I think are being overvalued: Cameron Brate (@ Falcons)