Week 11 is here, and there are plenty of solid options for your daily fantasy football lineups. Of course, you don't want to be overweight on players the general public is on, nor do you want to be underweight on players who who will be low owned. By looking at key NFL DFS ownership projections from RotoGrinders, you can find those tournament-winning plays who will differentiate your picks from the masses.
Below is a look at some of Week 11's key players who figure to be over- and underowned.
WEEK 11 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP
Week 11 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Bengals (13.4% pOWN on FanDuel, 13.3% on DraftKings). We’re on to yet another week where Carr looks like bad chalk. He’s projected to be the most heavily owned QB on both major sites, and for the life of me I do not understand it. We play GPPs because of the upside of big-money finishing at (or very close) to the top of the standings. To do that, you generally need to hit home runs at every position and find a couple cheap, under-the-radar gems that catapult you forward. Carr just doesn’t have that type of ceiling, especially against a Bengals team that won’t keep him and the Raiders offense throwing and playing fast. He’s rushed for more than eight yards in just one game this season, so he’s also not giving you any added upside with his legs. Just don’t do it. If Carr does end up being one of the most popular QBs on the slate, it figures to be a nice advantage for those that look elsewhere.
Kyle Allen, Panthers vs. Falcons (10.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 11.8% on DraftKings). I usually write up a lower-owned QB here that I actually want exposure to, but seeing Allen projected as the third-most popular QB on both sites made me change things up. Like Carr, he just doesn’t possess a ceiling suitable for winning GPPs. If you are playing those contests, that should be your only goal. If you’re going to aim for cashing at the back end of tournaments, just play cash games. Allen has not scored 18 FPs since the middle of September, and like Carr he just gives you absolutely nothing with his legs. This offense clearly runs through Christian McCaffrey and things will have to go way off the rails for them to lean heavily on Allen’s arm. Here are a couple of QBs projected at a lower ownership than Carr and Allen – Lamar Jackson (I’d personally expect him to be more popular), Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott. Those arms have consistently shown the ability to post GPP-winning box scores, and those four will be a huge part of my QB pool come Sunday.
Notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Josh Allen (@ Dolphins), Deshaun Watson (@ Ravens)
Other notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Matt Ryan (@ Panthers)
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MORE WEEK 11 DFS: Values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
Week 11 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
J.D. McKissic, Lions vs. Cowboys (11.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 14.9% on DraftKings. There is more merit here on full-point PPR sites given McKissic’s style, but I worry that he’ll be able to return value on a site like FanDuel where touchdowns are a little more important. Ty Johnson (concussion) is a longshot at best to be able to suit up on Sunday, leaving the Lions backfield to McKissic and Paul Perkins. While McKissic played a little more than two-third of the snaps last week, he still profiles as a poor between-the-tackles runner and will need to rely on usage through the air to earn his stripes. He may very well do that -- and if the Lions play from behind it could help matters -- but I would expect to see Perkins involved a little more on early downs and it wouldn’t be shocking if he stole a goal-line score at some point. (Update: Johnson cleared concussion protocol and will play, thus making McKissic an even worse play.)
Marlon Mack, Colts vs. Jaguars (2.9% pOWN on FanDuel, 3.1% on DraftKings). He has to explode sometime, right? Mack and the Colts offense couldn’t have looked much worse on Sunday, getting throttled by a cellar-dwelling Dolphins team, but the run game specifically should bounce back nicely at home against Jacksonville. Mack has failed to top double-digit FPs in his past two games, but the good news is he’s seen an average of 20 carries in those two games but has continued to struggle to add anything in the passing game. I expect Mack to go way underowned thanks to recency bias, and he should find running lanes against a Jags defense that has been much tougher to beat via the air.
Other notable RBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Miles Sanders (vs. Patriots), Kenyan Drake (@ 49ers)
Other notable RBs that I think are being overvalued: Adrian Peterson (vs. Jets)
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WEEK 11 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 11 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd, Bengals @ Raiders (11.2% pOWN on both FanDuel and DraftKings). This is more about the QB play than anything else. I simply don’t trust Ryan Finley to get the ball into Boyd’s hands enough for him to be a viable GPP piece, especially given that he’s expected to be one of the most popular values at the WR spot. The Bengals are an absolute dumpster fire and appear to have a very good shot at landing the top pick, so Cincinnati fans will only have to deal with Finley’s services for a few more weeks. Even in a game where they were down big and clearly in pass-first mode, Finley threw for just 167 yards and doesn’t have the ability to stretch the field. There’s an old saying in daily fantasy sports: Play good players. You can also add, "...or players with other good players throwing them the football."
Julian Edelman, Patriots @ Eagles (7.5% pOWN on FanDuel, 4.3% on DraftKings). The Patriots will head to Philly off a bye week and will be out for blood against the last team to upend them in the Super Bowl. While things couldn’t have went much better in the early part of the season for New England – minus a trip to Baltimore before the bye – the offense hasn’t actually looked that explosive. They’ve gotten by via the ground game against some dismal defenses but will have to do battle with an Eagles defense that actually does an above-average job at stuffing the run. We should see Brady get more involved, and with an underwhelming group of weapons, Edelman should be a focal point against a porous Eagles secondary. I’ll be way overweight on him this Sunday.
Other notable WRs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Christian Kirk (@ 49ers), DJ Chark (@ Colts), Will Fuller (@ Ravens), Phillip Dorsett (@ Eagles), Michael Gallup (@ Lions)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: Tyrell Williams (vs. Bengals), Deebo Samuel (vs. Cardinals)
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WEEK 11 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 11 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
Jared Cook, Saints @ Buccaneers (4.5% pOWN on FanDuel, 8.9% on DraftKings). Cook is more affordable on DraftKings, as it seems FanDuel has wisely upped his salary with Drew Brees back. It’s been a down season to this point for Cook, but a lot of that has been out of his hands. With the Saints top signal-caller back in action, things figure to improve in a noticeable way. He scored touchdowns in back-to-back games before going scoreless this past Sunday, although he did rack up a season-high 10 targets this past weekend and steps into a plum draw with a Bucs passing defense that is among the worst in the league. He’ll be more of a contrarian target on FanDuel.
Other notable TEs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Mike Gesicki (vs. Bills), Ross Dwelley (vs. Cardinals)
Notable TEs that I think are being overvalued: Jack Doyle (vs. Jaguars)