There are few things in life more joyous than the opening week of the NFL season. For me, it means a full day on the couch, chicken wings and a pizza in the oven (at different times...I’m not an animal) with a pint of ice cream on deck. Glorious. What am I hoping to witness in the midst of all that? My lowest-owned NFL DFS players hitting paydirt and pushing me ahead of the field. Week 1 is different than most given that we have months of lead-in time, and I think it’s a time when casual daily fantasy football owners are a little afraid to veer off the beaten path in FanDuel and DraftKings contests.
My goal here will be to touch on a few players that are likely to be more popular than they should be while also trying to find some hidden gems that could be GPP difference makers. We'll be using RotoGrinders' Projected Ownership numbers as a reference. Let’s get into it
Week 1 Non-PPR Rankings:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 1 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
High: Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. Lions (10.5 percent pOWN on FanDuel, 11.8 percent on DraftKings). In his regular season debut, Murray is expected to be one of the three most popular QBs on both major sites. We have certainly seen some rookies come out with a bang before, but I’m expecting Murray’s first game to leave his owners wanting more. There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic. For as much as Kingsbury’s offense has been raved about since he was hired, we haven’t seen it succeed here yet. Does that mean it can’t? Obviously not, but I struggle to put that much faith in a chalky QB. Arizona’s offensive line is still an issue, and Detroit’s defense has plenty of talent up front. Detroit is also the favorite here and if they are able to control the ground game and burn clock, it could lead to fewer opportunities for Arizona’s offense. I will be far underweight on Murray shares come Sunday.
Low: Josh Allen, Bills @ Jets (2.1 percent pOWN on FanDuel, 1.8 percent on DraftKings). I don’t expect Allen to be as efficient of a runner as he was last season, but the upside he adds with his legs can’t be ignored. I would also expect his passing chops to improve and his receiving corps has at least been upgraded mildly, with John Brown presenting the first real weapon he’s had. The Jets also don’t boast a plus secondary. The floor here isn’t exceptionally high in a game with one of the lowest totals of the weekend – if you're in Pennsylvania and interested in PA online sports betting, the total sits at 40.5 as of now -- but there is going to be a GPP-winning ceiling with Allen most weeks, so why not take a shot while he’s being slept on?
Week 1 DFS Lineups:
FD Cash | DK Cash | FD GPP | DK GPP | Y! GPP | Y! Cash
Week 1 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
High: Austin Ekeler, Chargers vs. Colts (17.5 percent pOWN on FanDuel, 16.8 percent on DraftKings). We won’t see Melvin Gordon on Sunday, which sets up nicely for Ekeler. However, he’s not the only DFS-viable back on this team (hello Justin Jackson), and his counterpart may have some qualities that make him a preferred DFS target. When Gordon was out last year, Ekeler was absolutely the “lead” back in terms of touches, but we saw Jackson’s usage pick up with time and I’d expect to see closer to a 60-40 split here, which makes Ekeler a far tougher sell given how popular he’s expected to be. I’d rather look elsewhere in the mid-range (namely Chris Carson) and may take some GPP shots at Jackson, but I likely won’t be too high on either Chargers running back compared to the field.
Low: Damien Williams (3.7 percent pOWN on FanDuel, 2.4 percent on DraftKings). Before the LeSean McCoy signing, Williams was one of the more sought after backs for fantasy purposes running with the league’s most potent offense. As much as I loved Shady in his days with the Eagles, he is not that same player and has been with the team for about a week, so I think it’s fair to question how involved he’ll be right out of the gate. Sure, he’s familiar with Andy Reid’s system, but he’s not going to seamlessly transition. Given the projected ownership on Williams, I’ll aim to be overweight and hope he takes on the lion’s share of the work against Jacksonville. On another note, the line in the Chiefs-Jaguars game has moved from -4.5 (KC) to -3.5 since opening despite almost three quarters of the bets being placed on the KC side. However, about half of the money has been placed on Jacksonville, indicating some sharp action on that side. The line sits at KC -3.5 on the FanDuel PA online sportsbook, and I’ll probably be staying away at that number.
WEEK 1 DFS: Values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
Week 1 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
High: Curtis Samuel (20.6 percent pOWN on FanDuel, 27.3 percent on DraftKings). I’m actually a fan of Samuel and think he’s in store for a nice season, but if he’s going to be one of the most popular WRs on the slate – he’s projected to be the most heavily owned WR on DK – I’m perfectly content being underweight in Week 1. If he falters Sunday, I’ll likely look to buy back big in the next few weeks. Carolina’s offense is still led by the ground game, and Christian McCaffrey commands plenty of attention as a receiver. D.J. Moore is also a fine option, and I’m not sure Samuel has cemented himself far enough away from Moore for the projected ownership on the two to make sense. I’d rather play Moore at less than half the ownership.
WEEK 1 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 1 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight End
Low: George Kittle (5.5 percent pOWN on FanDuel, 10.4 percent on DraftKings). Kittle is more of an against-the-grain play on FanDuel at his asking price, but I would put him right behind Travis Kelce at the top of the TE pool, so the pOWN here still seems low. The 49ers-Bucs game has as much shootout appeal as any on the slate (it has one of the highest totals on the NFL odds board), and while the TB passing game is drawing more attention, I think San Francisco’s deserves plenty, as well. Jimmy G still doesn’t really have a true No. 1 WR, and there isn’t loads of depth at the position, which sets up really nicely for Kittle’s floor and ceiling in terms of targets and production. He’ll likely end up being the most popular TE in my personal builds, but that doesn’t look like it’ll be the case for most of the public.