Scoring 129 points in consecutive weeks qualifies as the "Winter Heater" I've been hyping for weeks. That'll do the trick when already-low unders keep hitting and 129 points more than clears the bar in DraftKings cash games. Time to close out our 2017-18 NFL DFS campaign by riding this heater into our divisional round lineup picks.
This week, we'll find a couple volume bargains on running back so we can splurge at quarterback and receiver. When Antonio Brown's at $8,100, you click Antonio Brown.
PLAYOFF DFS:
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Divisional Round DraftKings Picks: Lineup, advice for playoff NFL DFS cash games
QB Tom Brady, NE vs. TEN ($7,000): Paying up for volume-boosted floor as no quarterback threw more passes during the regular season. The only ones on slate to come within 50 attempts are Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, who this week face the top two defenses in fewest DK points allowed to quarterbacks.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX @ PIT ($6,900): We'll get some Le'Veon in GPP, but in cash games we'll look for that 15-touch minimum at close to $6K a pop, given the tight pricing across the board. Even if the Steelers force some "Bortling" and run out to a big lead, Fournette's decreased his variance by owning the checkdown with five targets in consecutive games.
RB Latavius Murray, MIN vs. NO ($5,400): Murray is the only player south of $6K to get 20 touches each game over the past three weeks. The main risk comes from Murray's game-script sensitivity, since that number falls closer to 10 touches when Minny falls behind multiple scores, but that is yet to happen at home this season.
WR Antonio Brown, PIT vs. JAX ($8,100): Counting on AB getting close to "100 percent" as the Steelers did plan for this return spot since his injury. AB hasn't gone this cheap in years so we won't shy away. Big Ben played arguably the worst game of his career in the first Jags matchup, and Brown still notched 28.7 DK points.
WR Brandin Cooks, NE vs. TEN ($7,000): TyFreak got open pretty much at will against Tennessee's secondary last week, with drops the only thing keeping him from 100 yards in just the first half. Cooks fills a similar role for the Patriots. While he'll vanish against some of the better corners, lower-end DB matchups can yield double-digit targets, like against the Jets in Week 17.
WR Chris Hogan, NE vs. TEN ($5,200): The Patriots expect Hogan back, and there's enough to go around, as he and Cooks typically dominate WR snaps when both are active and this matchup encourages receiving volume. Tennessee's the ultimate pass-funnel defense in ranking fourth versus the run and 25th against the pass, with little variance from those rankings over the past three weeks.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL @ PHI ($3,200): Gronk and Kyle Rudolph find interesting matchups at premium and mid-tier prices, respectively, but Hooper's the basement play that allows for palatable floors elsewhere. He's hit three catches in each game since Week 15 and saw five targets on Saturday, so 2.5X value is within reach if Philly's No. 1 run D forces Atlanta to pass more.
FLEX Corey Davis, TEN @ NE ($3,400): Davis out-targeted his fellow Titans receivers in two of the past three games — perhaps fair to skip the Jags games — averaging eight targets in those two more comparable matchups. No Patriots corner ranks higher than 39th among 86 qualifying corners in Pro Football Focus' measure of yards allowed per coverage snap.
D/ST Steelers @ Jaguars ($3,800): In the wild-card round we hit 5.5X value with the cheapest unit on slate. No such values really jump out here, and playing the great Ds on slate means going against Ben or Brees. Shell out for the premium against Bortles.