The Broncos didn't necessarily need to add a running back during the offseason. Phillip Lindsay had produced a second straight 1,000-yard season with exactly 35 catches in 2019 and was proving to be a solid lead back for the team. However, with Melvin Gordon available, the Broncos decided to target the former Chargers star and were able to ink him to a two-year deal worth $8 million per season. As such, they have set up what could be one of the hardest fantasy football backfield rotations for fantasy owners to figure out before draft day.
In a normal offseason, owners would get a chance to watch the duo play in the preseason, see who looks like the top back, and adjust their rankings accordingly. This year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, most are flying blind.
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It's anyone's guess as to whether Lindsay or Gordon will lead the team in touches. Both are talented former Pro Bowlers, both can handle volume, and both can catch passes out of the backfield. They may operate in a true split or the Broncos could opt to ride the hot hand. Either way, this backfield split could get frustrating fast for fantasy owners relying on either back as an early pick.
Who is ahead in the race between Lindsay and Gordon? Where should you target each back? We've got all the right answers (hopefully) about the Broncos backfield with the NFL season almost here.
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Phillip Lindsay fantasy outlook
After going undrafted in '18, Lindsay quickly emerged as a key part of the Broncos backfield rotation during his rookie season. He was a top post-Week 1 waiver wire pickup and though he split touches with third-round pick Royce Freeman, Lindsay was clearly the more impressive back. That's what led Lindsay to take on a bigger role in '19 and put up another rock-solid season.
Lindsay garnered 259 total touches after logging 227 as a rookie. His increase in volume didn't exactly line up with an increase in fantasy production, but his consistent performance continued to be a boon for fantasy owners trusting him as an RB2.
In each of his first two seasons, Lindsay finished 12th and 19th, respectively, among RBs in fantasy points. He has run for over 1,000 yards and totaled at least 1,200 total yards in each campaign, as well. If he continues to get touches, he should produce at a high level.
That said, the question now becomes, will the Broncos give Lindsay those touches? With Gordon in the fold, the team may be more apt to split touches and give Lindsay a similar workload to what he saw as a rookie. After all, during that season Lindsay averaged 5.4 yards per carry compared to 4.5 last season with a larger workload. And at 5-foot-8, 190 pounds, Lindsay isn't exactly a big back, so getting him fewer carries could keep him fresher and prevent him from getting banged up.
Even if he gets fewer carries, Lindsay still will be consistent and should approach the yardage totals he has logged in each of his first two seasons. By all accounts, he has looked good during training camp and Denver's addition of Gordon may have sparked him to up his game even more. The competition may end up bringing up the best in him.
Right now, Lindsay's ADP has him ranked 35th among RBs this season, per FantasyPros. That puts him 12 spots behind the 23rd-ranked Gordon, so that may make him a good value depending on how this RB rotation shakes out.
2020 STANDARD FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Superflex | Top 200
Melvin Gordon fantasy outlook
There's no doubt that Gordon is a bigger name than Lindsay. The former first-round pick of the Chargers came into the league with high expectations after a prolific college career at Wisconsin. Over the course of five years in the league, Gordon's success has been mixed, but he has largely been a fantasy contributor thanks to his volume and touchdown potential.
Since failing to score as a rookie, Gordon has averaged a whopping 11.8 TDs per season. This TD upside has given him a high floor in fantasy football formats the past four seasons even though his ability to rack up yardage on the ground has left a lot to be desired.
Gordon has only averaged more than 3.9 yards per carry once during his NFL career. That came in '18 when he averaged 5.1 ypc. However, that year appears that it may have been an aberration. Because of his bottom-barrel yard-per-carry average, Gordon has only eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards once (though he came within three yards of doing so on another occasion). Still, he has three seasons in which he has at least 1,375 total yards, so that speaks to his strong receiving ability.
Since '16, Gordon has averaged 48 catches and 420 receiving yards on a yearly basis. Per 16 games, those numbers go up to 58 and 507 respectively. He figures to provide a similar impact in Denver since he's a more explosive receiver than Lindsay. So, in PPR formats, Gordon may have a bit of an advantage in that area.
With that said, it remains possible that Gordon could see regression as a receiver for one main reason. He's no longer paired with Philip Rivers. Rivers targets his running backs out of the backfield more than any other QB in the league and last year, Chargers RBs saw a league-high 177 targets. Comparatively, Broncos RBs garnered 112 targets, so Gordon may have trouble reaching the 68 targets per season (82 per 16 games) he has seen over the past three seasons.
If Gordon provides fewer points as a receiver, he will need to make up for it in the red-zone. But it may be difficult for him to do that. Last year, all eight of Gordon's rushing TDs came in the red zone with six coming inside the 5-yard-line. Inside the five, Gordon had 13 carries for 15 yards and six scores. Comparatively, Lindsay had eight carries for 14 yards and five scores inside the five, so the production of the two is certainly similar. If the duo split red-zone carries, as Lindsay and Royce Freeman have done in recent seasons, that will continue to hurt Gordon's upside because he is so TD-dependent.
Gordon could certainly emerge as a quality RB2, especially if he can take on a bigger role than expected as a receiver, but there are undeniable risks associated with grabbing him early. Were there a preseason, some of these concerns may have been quelled, but for now, he is a risky pick, especially since he's coming off the board ahead of Lindsay more often than not.
2020 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Superflex | Top 200
Verdict
Currently, we have Lindsay seven spots ahead of Gordon in our RB rankings. Lindsay comes in at 28 and Gordon at 35 (though Gordon is higher in our PPR rankings). That puts both in the flex range, but one should ultimately emerge as an RB2.
Given the numbers outlined above, it would seem that Lindsay has a better chance to do that. The third-year man simply has been more consistent than Gordon throughout his career and should have a chance to produce yardage totals similar to what he has put up in his first two seasons. He may have less TD upside than Gordon, but he should produce good yardage no matter what.
Gordon isn't a bad pick either. He just has more questions surrounding him as he joins a new team with an unsettled RB room. We're more than willing to trust him as a flex play, but the problem with him is that his ADP puts him more in the true RB2 range. Could he live up to that billing? Sure. But Lindsay has a better chance of panning out at his ADP.
If fantasy owners can draft both Lindsay and Gordon, that could be a sensible strategy. If both can produce, they will be flex plays on a weekly basis. If one emerges as a top option over the other, owners will have an RB2 and a top handcuff.
However, owners would have to target Gordon in the late-third/early-fourth round and Lindsay in the seventh round to pull that off. Since Lindsay is the better value with fewer question marks about his fit in Denver, it may make more sense to just target Lindsay in the middle rounds and let another player reach for Gordon early on.
