When the Packers host the Titans to open Week 11 on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video), the weather also will be a factor on top of the matchups. With winds around 10 mph and temperatures dipping down to 25 degrees at kickoff time at Lambeau Field, some fantasy football owners might be giving extra scrutiny to their start 'em, sit 'em decisions.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are used to those kinds of temperatures in November and pivoted to a run-heavy team against the Cowboys in victorious fashion last week. Derrick Henry and the Titans are fine with a run-heavy game plan per usual to avoid exposing Ryan Tannehill and their limited passing attack too much.
Rodgers won't have wide receiver Romeo Doubs (ankle) again, but fellow red-hot rookie Christian Watson (ankle) and veteran Allen Lazard (shoulder) will be available. Lead running back Aaron Jones (shin) is also good to go. The Titans have pretty good health around Tannehill and Henry going into the game, including some more positive news for key defensive pieces.
With all that in mind, here's breaking down the entire start 'em sit 'em picture for Thursday night, including a couple of DFS lineup suggestions for FanDuel and DraftKings:
WEEK 11 FANTASY PICKS: Sleepers | Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em
Packers: Who to start or sit in fantasy football on Thursday night
Start: QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has thrown multiple TDs in three of the past four weeks and has been the borderline QB1 everyone expected based on his preseason ranking and ADP. It's difficult to run on the Titans, so Rodgers will be forced into 30-plus attempts again to attack big weaknesses in the secondary. Around 250 yards and two TDs is a reasonable floor at home in that scenario.
MORE TNF: DK lineup | FD lineup
Start: RB Aaron Jones | Sit: RB AJ Dillon
Jones has become the centerpiece of the Packers' offense. He's needed as a runner and receiver to help give the Packers more playmaking pop. He won't find the same easy running lanes he saw open in his huge game against the Cowboys, but he can use his speed, outside quickness, and pass-catching skills for a fine scrimmage night with a high chance of scoring. That makes him at least a high-end RB2.
Dillon was an RB1 in half-point PPR way back in Week 1, but he hasn't had more than an RB3 finish since. Basically, he's become a low-upside flex that's unplayable in shallow leagues.
WEEK 11 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Start: WRs Allen Lazard and Christian Watson
Lazard has been pretty steady because of his consistent targets and nose for the end zone in his eight healthy games. Week 10 was his first absolute clunker without a TD, but Watson went off with three TDs. Lazard should see his usual peppering of six-to-10 targets with a fair shot and getting back in the end zone. Watson won't duplicate his big breakout game, but it's another strong spot against a Titans' defense that can give up big pass plays. Consider Lazard a WR2 and Watson a WR3.
WEEK 11 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Start: TE Robert Tonyan
Tonyan has been very quiet of late, with his last fantasy-relevant game coming against the Jets in Week 6. He tends to perform better at home. Tonyan is overdue for a short TD, and the Titans give decent yardage to the position.
WEEK 11 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
Start: K Mason Crosby
He hasn't been a reliable fantasy producer on the season because the Packers are not giving him enough scoring opportunities. Don't force it in the cold.
WEEK 11 DFS: Best stacks | Best values
Start: Packers D/ST
The Packers play better defense at home and get the emotional prime-time bump here to go after Ryan Tannehill. They are a borderline D/ST1 in regular-to-deep leagues.
Titans: Who to start or sit in fantasy football on Thursday night
Sit: QB Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill is coming off his third QB1 performance of the season with 255 yards and two TDs despite going only 19-of-36 against the Broncos. A blown coverage on a flea-flicker is a big reason for that, though, and Tannehill's overall passing is shaky. Considering he's not running much anymore, he's not a serious consideration in single-QB leagues in this matchup.
Start: RB Derrick Henry
Henry had his first fantasy flop in eight weeks with his 53 scoreless rushing yards against the Broncos. Before then, he finished as a strong RB1 in five of the previous six games. The Packers are No. 26 against the run and give up on average 140.6 rushing yards per game, so this is an easy call.
Start: WR Treylon Burks
Here's a sneaky start for the rookie after he got his feet wet in his return from turf toe against the Broncos. He had six targets last week, and he needs to be more involved as the best playmaker after Henry. He's a deep PPR-league option given some of the recent injuries and byes at the position.
Sit: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods
Don't chase NWI's random big game against the Broncos. Make sure you also see the forest through Bobby Trees and don't force the former Ram into your lineup.
Sit: TE Austin Hooper
Hooper had some relevance with five catches for 41 yards on seven targets against the Broncos. The Packers are stingier against tight ends, and Hooper is completely unreliable.
Sit: K Randy Bullock or K Josh Lambo
Bullock is a game-time decision because of a right calf injury. That could mean Lambo, who once kicked in Green Bay while with the Chargers, gets to start on the field that's a homophone of his last name. That's all good and fun, but not for fantasy.
Sit: Titans D/ST
The Titans can sneakily rack up big plays, but don't go here when they're road underdogs in prime time.
Packers vs. Titans: FanDuel single-game lineup
- MVP (1.5X): QB Aaron Rodgers $15,000
- AnyFLEX: RB Derrick Henry $17,000
- AnyFLEX: WR Allen Lazard $11,000
- AnyFLEX: D/ST Packers $9,000
- AnyFLEX: WR Treylon Burks $8,000
Here's stacking part of the Packers' necessary passing with a pivot away from Watson. We're also getting the best playmaking pieces from the Titans. Green Bay's D/ST is what was affordable to max out our salary.
Packers vs. Titans: DraftKings Showdown lineup
- Captain (1.5X): QB Aaron Rodgers $15,600
- FLEX: RB Derrick Henry $11,800
- FLEX: WR Christian Watson $7,400
- FLEX: TE Robert Tonyan $5,800
- FLEX: WR Treylon Burks $5,200
- FLEX: D/ST Packers $3,800
Rodgers, Henry, Burks, and the Packers D/ST all carry over from FD to DK. Here's going for some Watson big-play ability and counting on a Tonyan touchdown.
