Heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, we've seen most of the contenders and pretenders separate themselves from the pack. There are a number of edges for sharp gamblers to attack on this slate, be it on the moneyline, against the spread, or over/unders. Perhaps the most interesting matchup of the week is the Sunday Night Football tilt between the Patriots and Ravens, which is one of our featured bets of the week. Let's get into it.
All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard. Figures below calculated by wagering one unit on each touted bet with -110 spread odds.
WEEK 9 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
NFL Week 9 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Titans (+4) at Panthers
Since naming Ryan Tannehill their starting quarterback, the Titans (4-4) have won two straight games and are just one game behind the Colts and Texans in the AFC South win column. After going 23-for-29 for 312 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a 23-20 Week 7 victory over the Chargers, Tannehill went 21-for-33 for 193 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions en route to a 27-23 victory over the Buccaneers last week. While the offense has clearly taken a step forward under Tannehill, Tennessee’s defense has been glossed over all year long. The Titans impressively rank fourth in the NFL in scoring defense (16.9 points per game).
Meanwhile, the Panthers were demolished 51-13 by the 49ers last week and could struggle mightily in this contest due to the fact that their defense has allowed 135.1 rushing yards per game (27th out of 32 teams), 7.7 rushing first downs per game (28th), and 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game this year. While those numbers are absolutely skewed by San Francisco’s domination of them last week, expect Derrick Henry to be fed the ball early and often, which is exactly how Tennessee likes to control the game.
Check out BetQL to see what games our NFL picks are on.
WEEK 9 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
NFL Week 9 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Patriots -190 at Ravens
Halfway through their schedule, the Patriots are undefeated and have a +189 point differential (250 points for, 61 points against). Their defense has been historically-great and has surrendered just 40 of those 61 points (the others came against their offense and special teams units).
Rather than explain every reason why this moneyline is egregiously misvalued, consider the following facts, all of which can be found on BetQL’s game page.
Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have gone 29-2 after a cover as a double-digit favorite, 22-2 after allowing 17 points or less in four straight games, 38-6 after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, 24-2 against poor passing defenses (those that allow 260 or more passing yards per game), 23-1 against teams who allow 6.0 or more yards per play, 41-8 after a game with a turnover margin of plus-3 or better, 53-16 against good rushing teams (those that average 4.5 rushing yards per carry or more), and 53-7 against poor passing defenses (allowing 7.0 or more passing yards per attempt).
Need more convincing?
So far, 80 percent of the money has been wagered on New England’s moneyline (per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard).
WEEK 9 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP
NFL Week 9 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Buccaneers at Seahawks OVER 51.5
This game has shootout potential. The Buccaneers average 28 points per game (fifth in the NFL) while the Seahawks average 26 (11th). Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have allowed 30.3 points per game (30th) and the Seahawks have allowed 24.5 points per contest (20th).
While Russell Wilson is the ultimate example of a game manager who takes care of the football, Jameis Winston is the polar opposite. He’s reckless, as shown by his 12 interceptions and six fumbles lost through seven starts. That has allowed Tampa Bay’s opponents to capitalize on short field opportunities. On the flip side of that aggressiveness, he’s accumulated 2,072 passing yards and 14 touchdowns and has two elite receivers that are essentially matchup-proof at his disposal (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin).
Since Tampa Bay has the best rushing defense in the NFL (68.6 yards per game), expect Seattle’s offense to rely more on Wilson’s arm, which could certainly bode well for the OVER.
You can find all updated NFL odds, lines and spreads at BetQL!