NFL Week 6 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

Can you believe Week 6 is already here? The 2019 NFL season has been ripe with drama, intrigue and parity, as evidenced by the fact that only two undefeated teams remain: the 5-0 Patriots and 4-0 49ers. There are plenty of stellar matchups this week, but one in particular will be under the microscope (for all the wrong reasons). Who will come out on top: the 0-5 Redskins who just fired their coach or the 0-4 Dolphins who have a -137 point differential? (And do you have the guts to put a moneyline bet on either team...or bet the OVER?)

Speaking of going winless, I went 0-3 last week, thanks to the offensive ineptitude of the Titans, inability of the Bears defense to limit the Raiders offense, and Baker Mayfield’s dud against the aforementioned 49ers. But I’m totally not bitter. This is a new week, so let’s continue to trust the process.

WEEK 6 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

*Calculated by wagering one unit on each touted bet with -110 spread odds.

NFL Week 6 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week

All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

Saints (+1.5) @ Jaguars 

The Saints are 3-0 under Teddy Bridgewater in one of the best feel-good stories in recent memory. Bridgewater’s path has been unpredictable and improbable, and the Saints are coming off of a statement 31-24 victory over the Buccaneers.

Most notably in that contest, Bridgewater was allowed to sling the ball all over the field and the team deviated from its previously conservative play-calling with him under center. The result: 26-for-34 with 314 yards, four touchdowns and an interception. Michael Thomas caught 11 passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns in that game, too. 

The Jaguars are coming off of a 34-27 loss to the Panthers in which they allowed multi-dimensional running back Christian McCaffrey to rush for 176 yards and two scores and catch six passes for 61 yards and another touchdown. Alvin Kamara might be the only other back in the NFL who can put up numbers similar to that and Sean Payton will undoubtedly key in on what worked for McCaffrey last week. 

So far, 63 percent of public bets have been wagered on the Saints (per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard). 

WEEK 6 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end

NFL Week 6 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week

Falcons (-140) @ Cardinals 

The  Falcons are 1-4 but could easily be 3-2. In Week 2, they lost 24-20 to the Eagles and then 27-24 to the Colts in Week 3. Yes, they’re coming off of an embarrassing 53-32 loss to the Texans, and yes, their defense has looked awful since losing Keanu Neal to injury. 

However, the Cardinals barely earned their first win of the season against the Bengals (26-23) in Week 5. Most notably, their defense has allowed 138.8 rushing yards per contest (27th out of 32 teams), which might allow Devonta Freeman to finally get going. So far, he’s averaged just 3.2 yards per carry for 187 yards, but he has caught 22 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown. His inefficiency has forced Atlanta to throw the ball an NFL-high 72 percent of the time, which has created a predictability factor that wasn’t as evident in recent years. If Freeman can get things going on the ground and Ryan can utilize Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper, who is in a dream tight end matchup, expect the Falcons to get back on the right track. 

WEEK 6 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | FD cash | FD GPP | DK cash | DK GPP

NFL Week 6 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week

49ers @ Rams (OVER 50)

The last time these two teams squared off (Week 17 of last season), the Rams beat the 49ers 48-32. While that obviously doesn’t mean a similar output will be produced in this contest, the ingenuity of two of the NFL’s best offensive minds (Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay) were on full display. 

Although the 49ers’ pass rush is much improved, the Rams offense should be able to put up points due to the elite talent of their playmakers alone. Jared Goff has a healthy Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods at his disposal while Todd Gurley is due for a breakout at some point. Meanwhile, Shanahan’s run-first mentality while utilizing the specific skills of Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman makes them a legitimate threat, considering that it makes George Kittle and company more efficient producers on Jimmy Garoppolo’s dropbacks. 

Expect plenty of points to be scored in what might end up being the game of the week. An overwhelming percentage of the total money has been wagered on the over. Check out BetQL to see what teams our model’s expert NFL picks are on. 

You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads and odds at BetQL!