As we enter Week 5, the Patriots (+95 point differential) look like favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions while the Dolphins (-137 point differential) are well on their way to becoming one of the worst teams in NFL history. After all, the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold the record for the worst single-season point differential (-287). But while point differential can tell us a lot about teams on the extreme ends of the spectrum while making bets, it's not the only thing to consider when looking at favorites and underdogs.
Case in point: Tampa was a chip-shot field goal conversion away from being 3-1, but they are 2-2. The Raiders are 2-2 but have a -23 point differential. The Saints are 3-1 and lead the NFC South, but they have a -8 point differential. Therefore, using a multi-faceted approach to analyzing bets is still the way to go (as always), rather than simply relying on win-loss records and other basic public info.
WEEK 5 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
*Calculated by wagering one unit on each touted bet with -110 spread odds.
NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
Titans (-3) vs. Bills
With Josh Allen (concussion) listed as "questionable", Matt Barkley could be in line to start this road game for the Bills. Both quarterbacks struggled to do much of anything against the Patriots in last week’s 16-10 loss (Allen went 13-for-28 for 153 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions while Barkley went 9-of-16 for 127 yards, no touchdowns and an interception). Although Frank Gore (17 carries for 109 yards) had a throwback performance last week, quarterback play will most likely determine the outcome of this game.
The Titans defense hasn’t rivaled New England’s, but it ranks fourth in the NFL in points allowed per game (15.5) and only surrendered 10 in a 24-10 victory over Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the Falcons last week. Offensely, Marcus Mariota (106.2 QB rating, seven touchdowns, no interceptions) has been an effective game manager while Derrick Henry has been a legitimate bellcow running back, rushing for 310 yards and three touchdowns while posting 97 receiving yards and another score. While both teams feature upper-echelon defenses, give the edge to the home squad in this one, especially if Allen sits.
WEEK 5 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Bears (-225) vs. Raiders (in UK)
The Bears defense has looked almost as dominant as New England’s this season, allowing just 11.2 points, 61.5 rushing yards, and 229.2 passing yards per game. While this matchup is going to take place in London, Khalil Mack will undoubtedly try to make a statement against his former team and the offensive line of the Raiders will have to step up.
En route to a 34-14 loss to the Vikings in Week 3, the Raiders allowed consistent pressure on Derek Carr, who was sacked four times. Expect Mack and company to make him similarly uncomfortable in this contest. Although Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) will miss the game and backup quarterback Chase Daniel will get the starting nod, the Bears should be able to establish the run against Oakland’s defense, especially since they currently don’t have a middle linebacker listed on their entire roster after Vontaze Burfict (suspension) was lost for the remainder of the season. Although Chicago has received 39 percent of the total bets (per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard), they’ve garnered 85 percent of the total money, making them a sharp play.
WEEK 5 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | FD cash | FD GPP | DK cash | DK GPP
NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Browns at 49ers (OVER 46.5)
A lot of points should be featured on this week’s edition of Monday Night Football. So far, 63 percent of public bets have gone on the OVER, and 43 percent of sharps are on the OVER per BetQL’s NFL expert picks dashboard.
The Browns have allowed 119.8 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. That’s good news for the 49ers offense, which has the NFL’s highest rush percentage (56.7 percent) so far. Utilizing a multi-pronged ground attack, Kyle Shanahan has been able to open things up downfield for Jimmy Garoppolo and his receiving corps.
MORE WEEK 5 DFS: Stacks | Values | Lineup builder
Meanwhile, the Browns just dropped 40 points on the road against the Ravens. Nick Chubb (20 carries for 165 yards and three touchdowns) probably won’t repeat his incredible performance on the ground, but the offensive balance certainly made a positive impact. In that contest, Odell Beckham Jr. only had two grabs for 20 yards, too. He has the potential to go off every week, particularly when all eyes will be on this prime-time game. Hammer the over.
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