Week 4 is the most interesting week of the NFL season so far from a betting perspective. We have two massive favorites (Rams -13 vs. Giants and Ravens -14 at Washington), six spreads of four points or less, and a number of high-pressure situations highlighted by the winless Falcons (+7) taking on the undefeated Packers on Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my favorite bets while weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL, a web and app platform that simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day, and meaningful team trends. So far, my recommendations have gone 6-3 (2-1 spread, 2-1 moneyline, and 2-1 O/U records). Let’s take a look at three Week 4 bets you should consider making.
All data presented is as of Tuesday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
WEEK 4 PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Saints -4 at Lions
Can you believe that the Saints and Lions are both 1-2? Due in part to the ankle injury of superstar wideout Michael Thomas, the Saints lost 34-24 at Las Vegas in Week 2 before falling to the Packers at home 37-30 last week. With Thomas expected back in Week 4, this Saints offense should be deadly once again, which could become a major issue for Detroit’s defense, who will have to figure out how to limit Drew Brees, Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, and company in the familiar confines of a dome.
Also, historical trends matter. The Saints have gone 35-15 ATS in October under Sean Payton. They’ve also gone 24-9 ATS in their past 34 games against teams that allow 375 yards per game. Further, New Orleans is 16-6 ATS after two or more consecutive losses under Payton. Per BetQL’s Sharp Picks Dashboard, 68 percent of total money wagered is backing the Saints -4. Follow the money and lock it in!
WEEK 4 PICKS ADIVCE: Pick 'em pools | Survivor pools
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Bengals -165 vs. Jaguars
Our model is projecting a two-point win for the Bengals, who are 0-2-1 but could very well be 3-0 at the moment. Yes, you read that correctly. All three of Cincinnati’s games finished within one score, and they’re coming off of a 23-23 tie against the Eagles.
Joe Burrow has taken a major step forward over the past couple of weeks, as well. In Week 2, he went 37-of-61 passing for 316 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a road game against the Browns, and last week, he went 31-of-44 passing for 312 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Jacksonville has allowed 248 passing yards per game, but what really makes me love the Bengals in this spot is the fact that Jacksonville has allowed quarterbacks (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers) to complete 80 of their passes this season, the worst mark in the NFL by a wide margin. If you recall, Burrow thrives when defenses throw soft coverage at him. He completed 76.3 percent of his passes last year at LSU, and he has a very solid shot to light up the scoreboard in this one at the helm of an offense with a sneaky amount of weapons through the air.
WEEK 4 DFS: Best stacks | Best values | Lineup Builder
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Raiders vs. Bills: OVER 52.5
The over has gone 6-0 combined in Raiders games and Bills games so far this season. For reference, an average of 56.7 points per game have been scored in Buffalo’s contests while an average of 59.3 points per game have been scored in Las Vegas’ contests.
While the “let Russ cook” movement has gotten some attention in Seattle, the Bills have certainly unleashed Josh Allen in an equally impressive fashion. They average 6.6 yards per play on offense (the second-best mark in the NFL), as well as 31 points per game (third best). The Raiders defense that has allowed 6.4 yards per play (fourth worst) and 30 points per game (25th). Buffalo’s perennially stout defense has been anything but this year, as it's allowed 25.7 points per contest and 6.0 yards per play.
While betting on 53-plus points being scored may seem like a stretch for these two squads on paper, the numbers certainly suggest otherwise, even with the small three-week sample size.
You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!