Doesn’t it seem like the NFL season is flying by? At this point in the season, we are starting to figure out the identities of teams and standout players around the league -- and sharpening our bets for spread, moneyline, and over/under picks. At the completion of Week 4, a quarter of the regular season will be over for every team except the Jets and 49ers, who are on a bye.
The New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are the remaining undefeated teams in the AFC. That will change this week, as the Pats and Bills square off. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, Rams, Packers, Lions and 49ers are the NFC’s undefeated squads. The Dolphins, Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, Redskins, Cardinals and Jets are the only winless teams remaining.
After going 2-0-1 in Week 3 in this column, I’m 5-3-1 overall (60-percent win, - 0.28 units*) on the season and ready to crush it in Week 4. Let’s get into it.
*Calculated by wagering one unit on each touted bet with -110 spread odds.
WEEK 4 DFS LINEUPS:
DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP | Y! cash | Y! GPP
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
Ravens (-7) vs. Browns
In case you missed it, Lamar Jackson appears to be the real deal. Last week, he didn’t look his best and completed 22-of-43 passes for 267 yards and scampered for 46 yards and a touchdown on eight carries in a narrow 33-28 loss to the Chiefs. Expect him to turn it around in front of his home crowd in this contest. If Baker Mayfield continues his reckless play by turning the ball over, it could be a long day for the Browns.
Despite the presence of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, Mayfield has completed just 56.9 percent of his passes for 805 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions. He has also been sacked 11 times. He was stifled by the Rams defense in his last game and completed 50 percent of his passes for just 195 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. It’s clear that he’s talking the talk, but not walking the walk at the moment and things won’t come easy against a talented Ravens defense that has traditionally exceeded expectations in Baltimore.
MORE WEEK 4 DFS: Top values | Stacks | RotoQL Lineup Builder
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Patriots (-330) at Bills
Let’s ignore the constant well-oiled machine that is the Patriots offense for a second. We know what that group brings to the table every week and that they’ll put up points against any defense. The Patriots defense is the only unit since 1970 to not surrender a single passing or rushing touchdown in the first three weeks of the season. They’ve picked off six passes, recorded 13 sacks, and have allowed a QB rating of 44.5. They’ve also surrendered an NFL-best 36.7 rushing yards per game (2.3 yards per carry).
As much as grown adults in the Bills Mafia throwing themselves through tables in order to show their team pride enamors me, siding with Tom Brady and company straight-up in this contest is the smart bet. This doesn’t seem possible, but Brady is 30-3 against Buffalo in his career and (hilariously) since he became a starter in 2001, no quarterback on any team (including the Bills) has more wins than he does in Buffalo!
Nearly all the money has gone on one team’s money line in this contest. Find out which team!
WEEK 4 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Vikings at Bears (UNDER 38.5)
Through three weeks, one thing is abundantly clear: Minnesota is going to run a lot this season. In fact, it's carried the ball 103 times and asked Kirk Cousins to throw just 63 times. Due to the explosiveness of Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison in their backfield, Minnesota has surprisingly ranked 22nd in time of possession, which is unusual considering how skewed their game plans have been. However, the ultra-efficient drives it was able to put together against the Falcons, Packers and Raiders might not have prepared them for the fearsome Bears front that they’ll face on the road this week.
Chicago has allowed their opponents to score 10, 14 and 15 points, respectively, in its first three contests and rank inside the top five in pretty much every rush defense category, including yards per attempt (3.07), yards per game (68.7) and touchdowns surrendered (0). Although the Bears offense put up points against the Redskins in their Monday Night Football victory, they’re playing on short rest and Mitchell Trubisky has been unable to throw the ball downfield with any consistency. Since Minnesota’s defense is a borderline elite group, it could very well become a ground-and-pound affair with a defensive-first mindset.
The total is low, but bet the UNDER. While just 47 percent of the total tickets written have bet the UNDER, an incredible percentage of the money has been wagered on it. Find out how much!