There's just one double-digit spread (Ravens vs. Browns) featured on the Week 16 NFL slate, and there are a lot of exciting spots for bettors to attack this week. Six different spreads are between one and three points and seven more are between six and eight points. Playoff implications are at stake across the league, and the second-to-last week of the regular season is sure to be action-packed! Let’s check out some edges to capitalize on, be it on the moneyline, against the spread, or on the over/under total.
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WEEK 16 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
All data presented is as of Wednesday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard. Figures below calculated by wagering one unit on each touted bet with -110 spread odds.
NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Bills (+6.5) at Patriots
The Bills have gone 6-0-1 ATS on the road this season, and, while the Patriots have gone 5-1 at home, they’ve gone just 3-3 ATS. Earlier this year, New England took down the Bills 16-10 in Buffalo. Since then, both teams have been trending in different directions. Although the Patriots defense has relatively maintained its elite status (with the exception of two ugly losses against mobile quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson), New England’s offense has not resembled the dominant units that have graced Foxborough throughout Tom Brady’s tenure.
Whether Brady’s regression is real or not, it’s clear that New England's defense has carried the Pats to an 11-3 record. Meanwhile, the Bills have proved their doubters wrong all season and have played their best football away from Buffalo. Since this game has a slate-low 37.5 point total, it’s easy to assume that points will be hard to come by for both teams. Expect this one to come down to the wire, especially since the Bills are in the hunt for their first AFC East title since 1995. A Buffalo win in this game wouldn’t guarantee that, but it’s a necessary step toward dethroning the Patriots, who have won the division every year of the last decade.
NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Saints (-145) at Titans
The Saints have gone 5-1 on the road this season and are coming off of a dominant 34-7 victory over the Colts on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Titans have gone 4-3 at home and are coming off of a 24-21 loss to the Texans. There are some trends working in New Orleans’ favor in this matchup. In their past 57 games against good offensive teams (who average 24-plus points per game), the Saints have gone 43-14. In their past 31 games against excellent passing teams (that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt), New Orleans has gone 22-9. Further, in their last 102 games against poor passing defenses (that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse), the Saints have gone 75-27.
Per BetQL’s Public Betting Dashboard as of Wednesday afternoon, 70 percent of the total bets and 93 percent of the total money has been wagered on the Saints’ moneyline.
MORE WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em
NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Texans at Buccaneers OVER 49.5
Death, taxes and Buccaneers games hitting the OVER -- those are the only certainties in life. While that’s a bit hyperbolic, 11 of the past 12 Bucs games have gone OVER the total, and five of their six home games have gone OVER. Jameis Winston has thrown for 914 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions over the past two games, which has led to 73 and 55 point totals. Right now, he’s clearly being given the freedom to throw the ball all over the field and leads the NFL in passing yards as a result. But, due to his uncanny ability to turn the ball over, offenses have capitalized from beneficial field positions all year long against Tampa Bay, who have allowed 276.8 passing yards per game (30th) as they tend to sell out against the run. That could play right into Deshaun Watson’s favor this week, as DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller should be able to run wild. Hammer the OVER!
Via BetQL’s Sharp Picks Dashboard, 62 percent of public bets have supported the over, but pro bettors haven’t quite agreed. Find out what percentage of total money has been wagered on the over!