Week 13 is shaping up to be another interesting betting slate. Six different games have spreads of a field goal or less, and the seven other games have spreads of a touchdown or more. There’s also only one double-digit spread (Redskins-Panthers). Meanwhile, only one game (Chiefs-Raiders) has an over/under over 50 points (51), while four others have totals under 40. More than at any other time this season, it’ll be important for you to trust your process in an attempt to identify edges.
Luckily, BetQL can help out in that area. Our subscribers can view NFL ATS picks from BetQL’s model and make the most informed, data-driven wagers possible. Let’s get into some of the Sunday slate’s top options.
WEEK 13 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
All data presented is as of Wednesday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard. Figures below calculated by wagering one unit on each touted bet with -110 spread odds.
NFL Week 13 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Jets (-3.5) at Bengals
The Jets are soaring! They’ve scored 34 points in each of their past three games and are riding a three-game winning streak into this matchup against the winless Bengals. Cincinnati has already named Andy Dalton its starting quarterback for this matchup, but it most likely won’t matter much against a surging New York defense that allowed 17 points to the Redskins in Week 11 and then just three points to the Raiders last week. The Jets even knocked Derek Carr out of that contest due to his general ineffectiveness. Sam Darnold’s passing offense is clicking, and Le’Veon Bell has a dream matchup against the NFL’s worst run defense. Further, after one or more UNDERs this season, the Bengals are 0-6 ATS (their game against the Steelers stayed under the total last week). The momentum is squarely in the Jets’ favor heading into this contest.
WEEK 13 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
NFL Week 13 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Patriots (-170) at Texans
The Patriots are 10-1, in need of a statement win after Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been anointed as the team to beat, and have a very frustrated Hall-of-Fame quarterback that knows their offense needs to be better. It’s hard not to trust New England’s incredible defense and believe that Brady and company will figure things out in this road contest against one of Bill Belichick’s former disciples, Bill O’Brien.
Consider some of these trends working in the Patriots' favor: New England is 23-2 in their last 25 games against terrible defenses (teams that allow six or more yards per play), 53-8 in its past 61 games against poor passing defenses (teams that allow seven or more passing yards per attempt), 28-8 in its past 36 games in which it's coming off of a low-scoring offensive game (in which it scored 14 or fewer points), and 36-9 in its past 45 games against AFC South opponents. You can find more trends like those on BetQL’s Patriots-Texans game page, as well as updated odds, schedule analysis, injuries, and more.
Per BetQL’s NFL Public Betting dashboard, the Patriots’ moneyline has received 41 percent of total bets, but a whopping 93 percent of the total money, which proves the sharps are all over New England.
WEEK 13 DFS LINEUPS:
FD Cash | FD GPP | DK Cash | Y! Cash | Y! GPP
NFL Week 13 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Vikings at Seahawks UNDER 49
If you like a ground-and-pound style of football, you’re going to want to tune into this one. Minnesota ranks third in the NFL in rush-play percentage (50.2 percent) while Seattle ranks fifth (46.4 percent). While both of their passing offenses have shown bright spots at various points of the season, each team’s offensive scheme requires establishing the run. Therefore, expect the clock to keep moving without an abundance of scoring, especially since both defenses rank in the top 10 against the run (Vikings rank sixth, allowing 94.2 rushing yards per game, Seahawks rank 10th, allowing 101.5 rushing yards per game).
You can find all of BetQL’s NFL over/under picks on their Totals spread dashboard.