Week 10 is shaping up to be an interesting betting slate. As of Thursday morning, there are three double-digit favorites and five three-point (or fewer) favorites. Nonetheless, there are some that stand out as exploitable options, bet it against the spread, on the moneyline, or on the over/under. The week’s largest spread is one of them, as is the highest total. Let’s get right into it.
All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard. Figures below calculated by wagering one unit on each touted bet with -110 spread odds.
WEEK 10 FANTASY RANKINGS
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
NFL Week 10 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Saints (-13) vs. Falcons
The Saints have been on a surge and are on a six-game winning streak They’ve also covered the spread in all six of those games. Meanwhile, the Falcons are in a free-fall. As indicated by the double-digit spread, the Saints are expected to completely control this contest at home.
Via BetQL’s game page, some important trends explain the Week 10 situation: Atlanta is 1-7 overall and 1-6 ATS; the Saints are 7-1 overall and 6-2 ATS and under Sean Payton; and the Saints are 20-5 ATS against awful passing defenses (ones that allow more than 260 passing yards per game). Atlanta has allowed 261.1 passing yards per contest.
Further, New Orleans is 11-1 ATS after two or more consecutive wins against the spread over the past two seasons. The average score in those 12 games was New Orleans 32.7, Opponent 17.7.
Per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard, 50 percent of the bets have gone on the Saints with these odds, but 74 percent of the money has. That indicates how sharp bettors are viewing New Orleans.
WEEK 10 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
NFL Week 10 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Giants (-135) at Jets
The Jets just lost to the Dolphins. Don’t overthink this one.
Since Evan Engram (foot) will miss the game, Saquon Barkley and Golden Tate will likely be heavily relied on to produce offensively. Daniel Jones must figure out his troublesome turnover issues, but once again, the Jets just lost to a tanking Dolphins team. While the Giants are 2-7, they’ve stayed in most of their games and kept last week’s loss to the Cowboys tighter than what the final score indicates.
The Jets are a complete dumpster fire right now. Adam Gase is firmly on the hot seat, the team hasn’t figured out how to use Le’Veon Bell, and there’s no consistency on either side of the ball. There’s no reason to trust them in any matchup moving forward, especially on the moneyline where they’re required to win the game outright.
Check out BetQL to see what games our NFL picks are on.
WEEK 10 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP
NFL Week 10 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers OVER 52
The Buccaneers play an exciting brand of football. While it hasn’t worked out in the win column, it’s clear that Bruce Arians is comfortable with Jameis Winston slinging the pigskin all over the field. Similarly, their opponents have scored at will, as Todd Bowles’ early-season defensive success has faded. Since Kyler Murray and the Cardinals play at the fastest pace in the NFL, expect another shootout to occur.
The last six Buccaneers games have gone over the total. An average of 68.3 total points per game have been scored over Tampa Bay’s last six contests. There’s no reason not to expect a shootout in this matchup.
You can find all updated NFL odds, lines and spreads at BetQL!