While DFS and season-long fantasy football leagues create a giddy feeling among football enthusiasts at this time of the year, tens of millions of American adults will wager on Week 1 NFL games this weekend -- be it against the spread, on the money line, or over/under the total. BetQL helps bettors make informed decisions by giving them full access to their proprietary NFL Model. Premium members have full access to weekly Best Bets, public betting data, updated odds, line movement data, and all of their other tools to help ensure you make the most profitable betting picks possible.
As always, I used BetQL’s features to inform my bets. Here are my favorite picks of the week.
Week 1 DFS Lineups:
FD Cash | DK Cash | FD GPP | DK GPP | Y! GPP | Y! Cash
NFL Week 1 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
All data presented is as of Thursday evening.
Ravens (-6.5) @ Dolphins
The Ravens opened as 3.5-point road favorites, but after the Dolphins traded away their best players in a shocking and overt display of tanking, Baltimore’s line moved to -6.5. In case you were wondering, their consensus moneyline opened at -210 and moved all the way to -310 in that same span, as 82 percent of the money has been wagered on the Ravens (spread and moneyline).
Baltimore ranked third in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA last season and will immediately get an advantageous matchup against Ryan Fitzpatrick, a depleted Miami offensive line, unproven backfield, and underwhelming slew of receivers. Lamar Jackson’s dynamic dual-threat nature of quarterbacking could result in a bunch of easy points for the Ravens offense, as well. If there’s a blowout that will happen in Week 1, there’s a strong chance it will be this game.
WEEK 1 DFS: Values | Stacks | RotoQL Lineup Builder
NFL Week 1 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Chiefs (-180) @ Jaguars
Although 63 percent of tickets have been written on Kansas City’s moneyline, a whopping 89 percent of the money has been bet on Patrick Mahomes and company. We refer to that 26-percent positive difference as the Pro Edge, meaning the Chiefs are a sharp moneyline bet . Leonard Fournette is seemingly back to full health, Jacksonville’s defense should be formidable yet again, and the team acquired Nick Foles as an upgrade over Blake Bortles, but bettors are focusing more on a Chiefs offense that was the league's top unit a wide margin last year according to Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA (and most counting statistics).
Even though Fournette is a threat to run all over Kansas City’s defense, reigning MVP Mahomes should be able to move the ball with ease. Since a moneyline bet is simply picking an outright winner, think about who you have more confidence in: Mahomes in the second full year under Andy Reid with a slew of weapons around him or Foles in his first year with the Jaguars throwing to a questionable group of receivers. I’d take the former, even though the Chiefs are on the road.
Week 1 Non-PPR Fantasy Rankings:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
NFL Week 1 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
OVER 51.0 Total Points (49ers vs. Buccaneers)
This game has seen the second-largest point total increase. After opening at 48.5, the total was bet up to 51.0, one of just three games on the entire slate to surpass the 50-point threshold. So far, 69 percent of the tickets have been written on the OVER, while 71 percent of the money has also gone there.
Although defensive effectiveness is variable on a year-to-year basis in the NFL, it’s worth mentioning that the 49ers had an NFL-low two interceptions as a team last season. Yes, two. No other team had fewer than seven. That creates a positive outlook for the turnover-prone Jameis Winston, who has had a knack of throwing picks throughout his career. However, Winston’s mystifyingly-awful decision-making has led to a lot of scoring at times in recent years since he’s willing to take shots down the field. Armed with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard, among others, expect Winston to air it out a lot in this game, especially due to the question marks surrounding Tampa Bay’s running game.
Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco offense should have no problem going up the field against a Tampa Bay pass defense that was among the worst in the NFL last year.
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