Perhaps it's because of the rash of upsets this season, but several underdogs are getting too much respect in NFL pick 'em pools this week. Multiple home favorites are being picked by fewer than 50 percent of entries, while a neutral-field favorite is also getting a surprising lack of love. Finding value is key when making picks in confidence and office pools, and the experts from TeamRankings can help you do just that with their strategy advice for your Week 6 NFL picks.
Picks that are being underrated by the public can yield weekly gains that make the difference between winning and losing a season-long NFL pool, while smart upset picks can drive success in weekly pools. TeamRankings the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL pick 'em pools. Check out TeamRankings' Football Pick 'em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks. For a limited time, you can also get a free three-day trial of all their premium football picks.
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Week 6 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How We Identify NFL Week 6 Value Picks
This article is written on Wednesday, but if the win odds and pick popularity numbers hold, the teams below all provide compelling risk-vs.-reward trade-offs to differentiate your Week 6 picks from your pool opponents.
It's important to note that we're not necessarily saying you should make all of these picks. In particular, some upset picks may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. You need to take an overall level of risk with your picks that's appropriate for your pool size and rules. Season-long pools typically call for more conservative picks than single-week pools. If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick 'em Picks product.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Baltimore Ravens vs. LA Chargers
Point Spread: -3.0
Pick Popularity: 46%
Category: Value Favorite
The Chargers have been on a roll, and the public is picking them slightly more often than the favored Ravens. That means there's value in sticking with Baltimore here, as the ideal pick ’em situation is getting the favored team when more than half of the entries are opposite you.
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Cleveland Browns vs. Arizona Cardinals
Point Spread: -2.5
Pick Popularity: 45%
Category: Value Favorite
The same rationale applies here, as the Browns are favored but more pickers are going with the Cardinals right now. It isn't surprising that the majority would be on the undefeated Cardinals, but the only difference between these teams is some close-game luck.
The Cardinals just beat the 49ers by a touchdown in a game where they got four different fourth-down stops. They also beat Minnesota in Week 2 when the Vikings missed a very makeable game-winning field-goal attempt. Meanwhile, the Browns just lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers on Sunday. They also lost to the Chiefs in Week 1 despite holding a lead for most of the game.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 6 NFL survivor pool advice
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas
Point Spread: -3.5
Pick Popularity: 65%
Category: Value Favorite
There aren't quite as many people going with the underdog Raiders in this one, but enough are to keep Denver as a value play.
Denver has struggled over the past two weeks after a 3-0 start, but so has Las Vegas. The Raiders will also now be without the head coach who was calling their offense, which increases their downside risk.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
Point Spread: -3.5
Pick Popularity: 62%
Category: Value Favorite
This is a heavy value-favorite week. The Dolphins have looked bad in their two games against the best teams in the NFL, getting blown out by Buffalo and Tampa Bay. But Jacksonville is, uh, not in that same class.
The Dolphins could also get QB Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) back from IR for this week’s game, giving them a boost that the public may not be accounting for.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Point Spread: -1.0
Pick Popularity: 33%
Category: Unpopular Toss-Up
Finally, we’ll close with the Vikings, who nearly squandered a 10-point lead to the Lions last week. The Vikings are the slight road favorite at Carolina, but they are relatively unpopular, with about twice as many entries currently picking the Panthers.
Get All Our Week 6 NFL Picks
Football Pick 'em Picks from TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your edge in NFL pick 'em pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win your straight-up, point spread, or confidence pool.
From a strategy perspective, game theory is a foundational aspect of winning pick 'em pools. In short, to win a pick 'em pool, you have to score points that your opponents miss. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated gamble and avoid trendy upset picks not worth the risk. Our product does all that number crunching for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report winning a prize in football picks contests.
If you want to learn more about football pick 'em pool strategy, you can also check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick 'em pools.
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Good luck in your pools this week!