You think it gets easier to pick NFL games late in the season? It doesn't -- certainly not when COVID is raging through the league and knocking out swaths of key players a couple days (or hours) before kickoffs. Favorites can turn to underdogs (and vice/versa) very quickly. That makes navigating pick 'em pools and survivor pools more difficult, but it also creates more opportunities for those truly paying attention. The experts from TeamRankings are here to help inform your Week 15 NFL picks with strategy tips and advice on five key games.
Picks that are being underrated by the public can yield weekly gains that make the difference between winning and losing a season-long NFL pool, while smart upset picks can drive success in weekly pools. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL pick 'em pools. Check out TeamRankings' Football Pick 'em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks. TeamRankings also have Bowl Pick 'em picks if you are in a college football bowl pool.
TEAMRANKINGS: College Bowl Pool strategy | Bowl Pool value picks
Week 15 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How We Identify NFL Week 15 Value Picks
This article is written on Wednesday, but if the win odds and pick popularity numbers hold, the teams below all provide compelling risk-vs.-reward trade-offs to differentiate your Week 15 picks from your pool opponents.
It's important to note that we're not necessarily saying you should make all of these picks. In particular, some upset picks may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. You need to take an overall level of risk with your picks that's appropriate for your pool size and rules. Season-long pools typically call for more conservative picks than single-week pools. If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick 'em Picks product.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Football Team
Point Spread: -5.0
Pick Popularity: 67%
Category: Value Favorite
Philadelphia comes into this NFC East showdown off a bye and getting some value as a decent favorite. For comparison, Green Bay is favored by 4.5 points against Baltimore, and 88 percent of the public is taking Green Bay. About three times as many entries are picking Washington in an upset as are taking Baltimore as a similar underdog.
Take advantage of that value and stick with the favored Eagles here.
WEEK 15 NFL DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel | Yahoo
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
Point Spread: -2.0
Pick Popularity: 42%
Category: Value Favorite
The Colts are the betting favorite at home against the Patriots, who have won seven games in a row. Indianapolis has plenty to play for, though, as it's in a logjam for the final AFC playoff spot after winning four out of its past five games.
With the public treating the Patriots as the favorite, there’s some value here going the opposite way.
TEAMRANKINGS: College Bowl Pool strategy | Bowl Pool value picks
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Point Spread: -1.5
Pick Popularity: 15%
Category: Value Favorite (Formerly Value Upset)
The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing performance; the Browns are coming off a big win over Baltimore. But Cleveland has some serious COVID-19 issues, as the organization placed eight more players on the reserve/COVID list Tuesday and QB Baker Mayfield and head coach Kevin Stefanski on Wednesday.
The line has adjusted downward because of that news, and if this game goes forward Saturday as scheduled, Cleveland will be shorthanded. With just 15 percent of entries currently taking the Raiders after how they looked last week, it’s an opportunity to pick against those not paying attention to the news.
Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Survivor Pool Picks | Pick 'em Pool Picks | NFL Betting Picks | Bowl Pool Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans
Point Spread: +1.5
Pick Popularity: 33%
Category: Unpopular Toss-up
There's probably no bigger disconnect between the average fan and the betting market than on Tennessee. The spread is fairly even in this one, but the public is taking the Titans at a two-to-one clip.
It's another toss-up type game where you can play the less popular side if you need to catch up in a season-long pool or want to give yourself a chance to move past a bunch of entries in a weekly contest.
WEEK 15 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Point Spread: -1.5
Pick Popularity: 47%
Category: Value Favorite
This one is just a moderate value play right now, and it could slide off depending on line movement or popularity shifts.
But as the favorite being picked less than half the time, Denver is a solid pick against the Bengals in a key game between AFC teams sitting at 7-6.
Week 15 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Most popular picks
There are only four weeks to go if you are still alive in survivor pools, and we finally had another week where almost everyone advanced.
Here are the most popular picks so far for Week 15.
- Miami Dolphins (21% popularity) vs. New York Jets
- San Francisco 49ers (19% popularity) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Arizona Cardinals (18% popularity) at Detroit Lions
- Dallas Cowboys (8% popularity) at New York Giants
- Philadelphia Eagles (5% popularity) vs. Washington Football Team
You can check out our Week 15 pick analysis and get our customized pick recommendations if you are still competing in a survivor pool.
Get All Our Week 15 NFL Picks
Football Pick 'em Picks from TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your edge in NFL pick 'em pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win your straight-up, point spread, or confidence pool.
From a strategy perspective, game theory is a foundational aspect of winning pick 'em pools. In short, to win a pick 'em pool, you have to score points that your opponents miss. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated gamble and avoid trendy upset picks not worth the risk. Our product does all that number crunching for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report winning a prize in football picks contests.
If you want to learn more about football pick 'em pool strategy, you can also check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick 'em pools. Good luck in your pools this week!