With December upon us, things start to get serious in NFL pick 'em pools and survivor pools. Leaders can get too conservative and people back in the pack can get too reckless. With six weeks left, you might need to take some calculated risks with underdogs or unpopular favorites, but that doesn't mean you should go against the grain with the majority of your picks. The experts from TeamRankings are here to help inform your Week 13 NFL picks with strategy tips and advice on five key games.
Picks that are being underrated by the public can yield weekly gains that make the difference between winning and losing a season-long NFL pool, while smart upset picks can drive success in weekly pools. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL pick 'em pools. Check out TeamRankings' Football Pick 'em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks. For a limited time, you can also get a free three-day trial of all their premium football picks.
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Week 13 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How We Identify NFL Week 13 Value Picks
This article is written on Wednesday, but if the win odds and pick popularity numbers hold, the teams below all provide compelling risk-vs.-reward trade-offs to differentiate your Week 13 picks from your pool opponents.
It's important to note that we're not necessarily saying you should make all of these picks. In particular, some upset picks may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. You need to take an overall level of risk with your picks that's appropriate for your pool size and rules. Season-long pools typically call for more conservative picks than single-week pools. If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick 'em Picks product.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders
Point Spread: +2.5
Pick Popularity: 17%
Category: Value Gamble
Maybe it's because the Raiders just won the most-viewed NFL regular-season game in the past 30 years, but the public is all over Las Vegas in this relatively close matchup. Washington is only a 2.5-point underdog on the road in this game, but Vegas has been consistently inconsistent all year. The Raiders have won more often as an underdog than as a favorite.
In weekly contests or if you need to make up ground, consider going against the grain with Washington.
WEEK 13 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel | Yahoo
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Point Spread: +3.0
Pick Popularity: 30%
Category: Value Gamble
The Chargers and the Bengals have been consistently up-and-down this season, looking like they can beat anyone or lose to anyone in a given week.
With the Chargers coming off a loss to Denver and Cincinnati winning in a blowout over Pittsburgh, there’s some value in going contrarian here on a (mild) Chargers upset.
Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Survivor Pool Picks | Pick 'em Pool Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Point Spread: -7.5
Pick Popularity: 86%
Category: Favorite at a Reasonable Price
The Cardinals should have QB Kyler Murray (ankle) back after he has missed the past three games, and they could also get star WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) back.
Arizona is one of the larger favorites of the week, but don’t fall into the trap of picking the upset here. There are underdogs with better odds available.
WEEK 13 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Philadelphia Eagles at NY Jets
Point Spread: -6.5
Pick Popularity: 81%
Category: Favorite at a Reasonable Price
The Eagles are nearly a touchdown favorite despite concern about Jalen Hurts’ ankle. They are playing a Jets team coming off a win, but one that wasn’t particularly inspiring. Rookie QB Zach Wilson returned and threw for fewer than 150 yards and one interception.
The Eagles are a value relative to other options similar to them in win odds. The three closest favorites by point spread to Philadelphia have a pick popularity of 89 percent. That means pool entrants are picking the upset here about twice as often as in those other games, so stick with the favored Eagles.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Point Spread: -4.5
Pick Popularity: 72%
Category: Favorite at a Reasonable Price
This week, there aren’t any true high-value favorites where the public is picking the underdog at a higher rate. But with the pick rates on some smaller favorites being higher than that of the Ravens, sticking with them against the struggling Steelers is a solid play.
Week 13 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Most popular picks
After five weeks of large survivor eliminations, including the most popular pick losing each week, most survivor pools are down to just a few entries remaining. Based on the public pick rates versus our recommendations, we estimate that one of our subscriber entries is four times more likely to still be alive compared to a typical entry.
Here are the most popular picks so far for Week 13.
- Minnesota Vikings (20% popularity) at Detroit Lions
- Los Angeles Rams (15% popularity) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Kansas City Chiefs (15% popularity) vs. Denver Broncos
- Philadelphia Eagles (14% popularity) at New York Jets
- Las Vegas Raiders (10% popularity) vs. Washington Football Team
You can check out our Week 13 pick analysis and get our customized pick recommendations if you are still competing in a survivor pool.
Get All Our Week 13 NFL Picks
Football Pick 'em Picks from TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your edge in NFL pick 'em pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win your straight-up, point spread, or confidence pool.
From a strategy perspective, game theory is a foundational aspect of winning pick 'em pools. In short, to win a pick 'em pool, you have to score points that your opponents miss. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated gamble and avoid trendy upset picks not worth the risk. Our product does all that number crunching for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report winning a prize in football picks contests.
If you want to learn more about football pick 'em pool strategy, you can also check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick 'em pools.
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Good luck in your pools this week!