We have a nice little three-game slate for NBA DFS contests on Tuesday. We have one ugly total, one decent total, and one really juicy total. Since there are only three games, we can't fade any of them, and we're going to need to have exposure from each contest. Optimal daily fantasy basketball lineups will be posted for our subscribers at Fantasy Alarm around 6:30 p.m. ET as tonight’s slate begins at 7:30!
Instead of our usual chart full of players and analysis, we're going with a game-by-game breakdown because of the short slate.
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NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings, FanDuel advice for Tuesday, November 14
Celtics at Nets
Total: 208.5 / BOS -6.5
Injury News: Kyrie Irving PROB, D'Angelo Russell OUT
We are getting Kyrie Irving back, so at least one superstar point guard is healthy in this matchup. D'Angelo Russell is out and will miss the next few games, so we obviously want to know who's going to replace him. This total isn't bad, and what we really love about it is the fact that it doesn't scream blowout despite the fact that the Nets haven't had the best track record over the past couple of seasons.This is a MASSIVE pace-up spot for Boston. Brooklyn is first in the NBA in pace (107.7) while Boston is 24th (98.6).
Celtics
Vegas knows best, so I believe them when they say this should be a competitive game because I want a ton of Boston exposure in this spot. Brooklyn ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and is in the bottom five in DVP in four of the five positions, so we want to take advantage of this fact.
Elite Plays: Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford. There's no singular player that can actually stop Irving one-on-one, and Spencer Dinwiddie is not going be the one to suddenly figure out how to do so. We saw Al Horford return from his concussion and play a full complement of minutes the last time the Celtics took the floor, so Irving's case likely won't be much different. Irving checks in at his second-lowest price tag of the year on DraftKings at just $8.2K, and that is a fantastic price on a point-per-dollar scale.
Every time the Celtics are on a slate, I find myself teeter-tottering between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but I prefer the upside of Tatum here. Tatum is cheaper on both FD and DK and has shown 40-point upside, as well. His minutes are steady as can be, and since Brown has been the one playing better of late, that could help suppress Tatum's ownership a bit, which is obviously good for us on this small slate. Brooklyn ranks second to last versus centers this year, so Horford should be in for a big night. On smaller slates we are sometimes just looking for a raw number of points, and Horford's consistency has been just what the doctor ordered for Tuesday. He has a safe floor and is a triple-double threat, as well.
Value Plays: Marcus Morris. After three straight solid outings, Morris put up a dud last time out. He still has upside at his price, too, and should continue to see an uptick in minutes with each passing game. I mentioned Brooklyn ranks poorly versus almost every position on the floor, and it is dead last against power forwards. Morris has a fantastic 24-percent USG rate thus far in 2017, so he's an excellent play in this spot, especially on FanDuel.
Nets
Elite Plays: None, zilch, zero. Boston's defense is so good, especially versus guards, that I don't see any elite plays in this spot.
Value Plays: Spencer Dinwiddie. I don't have much interest outside of Dinwiddie on the Brooklyn side. There's possibly a Tyler Zeller-revenge narrative, but he was active last game for Brooklyn and didn't see the floor at all. Dinwiddie is really nice value matching up against Irving's defense. Boston's one weak spot on defense has been at the point guard position, ranking 16th against them, so it's still decent. We've seen Dinwiddie with 40-fantasy point upside in games where he's seen 30-plus minutes, which is absolutely the track he's on for tonight.
Raptors at Rockets
Total: 219.5 / HOU -6.5
Injury News: Norman Powell OUT, Nene Hilario OUT, Chris Paul OUT
This is easily the best game on the slate with fantasy goodness all over the place. As I mentioned above, raw numbers of points win tournaments on these types of slates, so is there anyway we can pass up James Harden at his astronomical price tag? Will he be 80-plus percent owned in tournaments, and if you're daring enough, 100 percent in cash games? As crazy as it sounds, probably.
Raptors
Toronto may be the dogs in this matchup, but this game fits their style, as Houston plays at virtually the same exact pace as the Raptors do. This is the first night of a back-to-back for the Raptors, who will also be playing three games over the past four nights.
Elite Plays: DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry. Even though I don't exactly love the idea of either of their price tags on DraftKings, they are much more valuable on FanDuel where you have to roster two players at each position. DeRozan has scored 20-plus actual points in nine of his past 10 games, and the Raptors need him to do so tonight. The Raptors are implied to score 106 points tonight, and if they're going to hit that mark, DeRozan is the main reason why. Game stacking him with Harden in this spot could be wise. Lowry has been so inconsistent this season, but I'm not worried about Eric Gordon or Harden on the defensive end. If you're looking to spend up at point guard and don't trust Irving coming off injury, Lowry is the second-highest priced PG on the slate. He's fine, but I prefer DeRozan in this uptempo, high projected total.
Value Plays: Jonas Valanciunas, Serge Ibaka, CJ Miles, OG Anunoby. Since the first game of the year where he absolutely bullied the Bulls front court, Valanciunas has been non-existent. He doesn't see a lot of minutes even though he's a fantasy-point-per-minute player when he does. With Nene Hilario already ruled out, it's likely that Clint Capela will see extended run in this one. Valanciunas' minutes are seemingly dictated by what his opponents are doing at center, so more Capela is a good thing. If he gets the minutes, he could mash, but "if" is the crucial word in that sentence. Since Valanciunas has been pulled off the floor so frequently, Ibaka has seen his time right around 30 minutes more often than not. He'll draw Ryan Anderson defense in this, so sign me up! He's cheap as hell and is a nice, cheap way to get exposure to this game.
Norman Powell has been ruled out, so Miles could be a big beneficiary. He's shooting just 38 percent from the field, but he's hitting his threes at a 36-percent clip, which is respectable. If he's knocking down shots, he's worth rostering. If he's not? He'll ruin any and all chances at winning some serious coin. Anunoby is arguably the most interesting play on this slate. There are rumblings that he may step into Powell's starting small-forward position for this contest. Anunoby gets after it defensively, and Dwayne Casey has been sticking him on the opposing team's best offensive weapon when Anunoby is on the floor. That would be Harden in this case, so if Casey wants Anunoby on Harden all game, he could be on track for season and career highs in minutes, production and fantasy points in this contest. He's virtually the minimum, too.
Rockets
If you're reading this you've probably been listening to the podcast, which means you know about the Ryan Anderson shooting splits narrative. He's at home, so this is the last time I'm going to mention his name. (HINT: He can't shoot at home for whatever reason). I'm on the fence about Eric Gordon tonight. I like the safety for cash games because of the minutes and usage rate, but I don't think he's shown us much upside at his current price points lately.
Elite Plays: James Harden, Clint Capela. Harden is the top play on the slate and is priced accordingly. He's $12.3K on DraftKings and $12.5K on FanDuel, but fading him on this slate would be something I wouldn't suggest doing at all. I don't suggest playing cash, but if you are, he's going to be nearly 100-percent owned. I love Capela in this spot, especially with Nene already ruled out. Houston has finally realized Capela is a really skilled player and has given him 30-plus minutes in three straight. Without Nene he'll see even more of a boost and look to notch his fourth straight game with 10-plus rebounds. He also has had a block or more in four straight games, which has helped him accrue 29 DK points or more in all four of those aforementioned games.
Value Plays: Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker. After getting off to a dreadful start this year, Ariza has really picked it up of late. He's scored 24-plus DK points in six straight games, which hits 5x at his price tag every single contest. Pairing him with Harden is great because Ariza is shooting so many three pointers this year, and they're primarily coming on passes from Harden, so double the points if the shots fall. Ariza's usage rate or lack thereof scares me, but everyone on the floor will be involved in this game. Because there are only three games, Tucker comes into play. If he knocks down a few shots, he'll crush his value. The problem is he has an 11-percent usage rate, which tells me he could play 30 minutes tonight and not take a single shot. He contributes in other places and is a cheaper, likely lower-owned way to get exposure to the highest total on the board.
Spurs at Mavericks
Total: 199.5 / SA -6.5
Injury News: Kawhi Leonard OUT, Danny Green IN, Devin Harris OUT
As much as I want to fade this game and move on, there are some very interesting pieces here that we shouldn't ignore. Both team's pace of play makes you want to gouge your eyes out, so don't expect this total to really exceed anyone's expectations.
Spurs
Looking at how these two team's match up, San Antonio has a lot of mismatches they will definitely look to exploit early and often. Dallas is in the bottom 10 in the league at four positions according to the points-allowed-by-position stat. Small forward is the only point of strength on the defensive end for them, which comes as no surprise seeing how Wes Matthews has played a lot of time at SF.
Elite Plays: LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol. Play one or the other or both, and you will be rewarded. Aldridge is one of the safest plays on all of the slate as he has an excellent USG of 27.6 percent, which is right outside of the top 20 in the league. He'll have the size advantage over Harrison Barnes and whoever else they try using at PF on Tuesday. Gasol should be able to grab every rebound over Dirk Nowitzki in this matchup. He went off against the Bulls last game in only 27 minutes, scoring 41 DK points, and he's in a similar spot again today. His season average of 11 points and eight rebounds is solid and center is very weak tonight. He could be a lock on FanDuel if you don't plan on spending up on Al Horford or Clint Capela.
Value Plays: Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Rudy Gay. There are so many point guard tandems that go back and forth between who's going to be good on a certain night that it's almost impossible to get it right. Both Spurs PGs are in an excellent spot, as we mentioned the Mavs stink defensively and rank 25th against the point guard position. Murray has the upside we wish Mills had, but right now, Mills is getting the minutes as long as the game stays competitive. I think Gay has some upside in this matchup because he should see a bunch of minutes at the PF spot matching up with Barnes. Gay has shown the ability to stuff the stat sheet in a multitude of ways, something we’ve not been used to from him in years past.
Mavericks
Top Plays: Harrison Barnes. What has gotten into Barnes? He’s not only the Mavericks best scorer, but he’s also now all of a sudden their best rebounder as well? He has three games in a row of nine or more boards and two straight of 12-plus. Not only that, but he’s shot 47 percent or better and scored 20 actual points in all three games. Barnes might have a tough assignment guarding LaMarcus Aldridge defensively, but Aldridge won’t be able to handle him on the other side of the ball either.
Value Plays: Dennis Smith Jr., Yogi Ferrell, Salah Mejri, Wesley Matthews, JJ Barea. Dallas has so much value potential, but plugging in the right plays will ultimately decide your fate. Smith Jr. has really taken off of late, scoring 30-plus DK points in three straight. His USG rate is also taking off, as he’s attempted 15 or more shots in six straight games. He’s still too cheap and is a great play on FD where you’re forced to roster two PG’s. Ferrell has been seeing the minutes of late and is producing to boot. With Devin Harris out on Tuesday, Ferrell should once again play big minutes. He has an awesome price tag across the board, and he has 30-point upside, which would be about 8x his salary on DK and 7x on FD.
Mejri is interesting because it seems his minutes fluctuate based on the matchup. With Gasol starting at center for San Antonio, Mejri should actually be able to stay on the floor for north of 20 minutes, and at his price, he could open up a lot of doors to pay up elsewhere while at the same time, crushing value. Matthews has seen 33 minutes or more in eight of 10 games, so that’s one thing we have going for us. It just comes down to making shots. Over his past five games he’s shot 13-for-54 (24 percent). JJ Barea is going to be a crowd favorite tonight and for good reason. With Harris out, Barea will see more minutes and more usage. He’s a fantasy-point-per-minute guy when he’s on the floor, but he seems to be capped around 25 minutes, so unless something drastic happens, don’t expect that to change