We have just a two-game NBA DFS slate this Thursday, so we're taking a different approach with our Daily Fantasy Basketball Playbook. Instead of a chart with a bunch of potential picks based on FanDuel and DraftKings prices, we're simply breaking down the top plays from both the Warriors-Spurs and Lakers-Blazers games.
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NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings, FanDuel advice for Thursday, November 2
Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs (O/U: 216 / GSW -7.5)
Warriors Primary Plays
In a game with a nice 216 total and the best offensive team in basketball in town, I'm not to excited to roster many Warriors. It's a massive pace down spot for Golden State, as the Dubs are sixth in the league in pace while the Spurs are 25th. The blowout potential is always a factor, even if Vegas believes this game should stay relatively close all the way through.
If I were looking to roster someone, I'd start with Kevin Durant. It's hard to fade the stars on a small slate like this and make up the points elsewhere, so Durant will likely be a lock-and-load play for me. Durant's the highest priced played on this slate, and his 48 DK points per game is right at the 5x mark based on that current salary. Let's not forget Kawhi Leonard is out, so we don't have to worry about his pestering defense at all.
One player I actually am excited to roster from the Golden State side is Klay Thompson. I can save $1,000 on DK off of C.J. McCollum, who's the top-priced SG on the slate, for someone with similar and maybe even greater upside. Thompson's 23-percent USG is rock solid, and he's had an extremely safe floor of around 29 DK points, a number he's hit in every game but one.
I have slight interest in both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, as well, but not nearly as much as the other two I mentioned. You can deploy Curry whenever you'd honestly like to in a GPP, and he could get you 5x easily. All it takes is for him to get going. I'd just personally spend up on Durant in this spot, especially with Leonard out. Green's interest is limited because he's going to be working damn hard on the other end trying to defend LaMarcus Aldridge, who's been unstoppable to begin this year.
Warriors Value Plays
The Warriors value players haven't shown me enough to deploy any of them either.
Spurs Primary Plays
If you're not starting with LaMarcus Aldridge here, you're doing something wrong. Attacking Golden State with big men offensively has been a kryptonite for them. Aldridge looked human for the first time of the season the last time out, as he scored a season-low 11 points against Boston. Before that he notched 20-plus every single contest. Recency bias would play more of a factor if it weren't a two-game slate, but his ownership tonight is going to be massive. Aldridge is a tough fade considering how good he's been and how bad the Warriors are at defending big men.
Spurs Value Plays
Dejounte Murray is in an interesting spot because we all know Curry isn't the best defender. Murray is also a lot bigger than Curry, which is another advantage he can look to exploit. Murray has played poorly of late and has missed hitting value in three of his past four games. Recency bias could be a big factor as to why Murray is a good play here.
Normally on a two-game slate, we're simply looking for a raw amount of points. We need the most we can get, so safety is a good thing. Rudy Gay has been just that this year. Coming off the bench, Gay has scored 20-plus DK points in every game this season. Because he comes off the bench, he'll see less Durant and Green defense, which is obviously ideal. Gay is so cheap at $5.3K that even if he has a crappy game he could hit or exceed value.
The Spurs are playing way up in pace as I alluded to earlier, so giving Danny Green a look might be worth it. Green is someone who loves taking transition threes (well, just threes in general). He's made two or more trey bombs in five of seven and is down to $5K. He could easily mash value in this uptempo matchup.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers (O/U: 210 / POR -6.5)
Lakers Primary Plays
Lonzo Ball gets a nice matchup against Damian Lillard who, let's just say, focuses more on the offensive side of the ball. Ball has struggled with his shot this year, shooting just 33 percent, but the secondary stats have been beautiful. To go along with his 10.4 point per game average, he's pacing the team in assists (7.0) and is second behind Larry Nance in rebounding (7.3). Unfortunately, this is definitely a pace down spot for the Lakers, so Ball's full potential might not be flashed here. That said, maybe that's something that will suppress his ownership to give us a leg up on the field.
Lakers Value Plays
However, playing any other Laker besides Ball is like playing Russian Roulette. Nance would probably be the safest guy other than Ball on their roster. Nance has now seen 26-plus minutes in two straight games and has responded by posting games of 25 and 39 DK points, respectively. He's actually grabbed double-digit rebounds in three of four games. He's likely to stay on the floor in this one ,as he matches up nicely with Al-Farouq Aminu at PF. Aminu is a very good defender, but we don't want Nance because of his 1-on-1 skills, but for all of the other stuff he contributes.
If you don't like Nance, it's likely you're going to take a look at Kyle Kuzma or Julius Randle. We've seen that Kuzma is the real deal, at least scoring the basketball, but he just simply doesn't see enough run on the floor to show off any massive upside. Randle has been a fantasy point-per-minute monster over his past four games, but he's only seen in the 20s once over that span, so he's really hard to trust. But if you are playing a two-game slate, who needs trust?
Jordan Clarkson is the last Laker I'm personally looking at. His role has diminished with KCP's arrival, but he's still top 10 in the league in USG. If he can get it going early, Luke Walton will have no choice but to keep him on the floor. Clarkson has never seen a shot he hasn't liked.
Trail Blazers Primary Plays
Very often we see KCP guarding the opposing team's best offensive player, which in this case is Damian Lillard. If that means we get a cross match between the two positions and C.J. McCollum ends up being guarded by Ball, sign me up. I know I've already touted Thompson because the reduction in price, but McCollum is super gifted on offense. Lillard's price has gone up nearly $1,000 from last night, but it is a big pace up spot, so if you wanted to play both Lillard and McCollum it's not a bad idea, especially since we're trying to be as different as possible on a two gamer.
Trail Blazers Value Plays
I mentioned it when talking about Nance, but Al-Farouq Aminu is really good in uptempo games and this is definitely one of those games. He's a great defender who could rack up the steals, which we often see him do as he streaks away on a fast break. Aminu is one of my favorite plays on this mini slate and I'll likely have 100 percent ownership tonight if he plays seeing how he was injured on Wednesday.
With Aminu questionable, it's likely Ed Davis becomes the chalk value of the day. He's been a monster with Aminu active, so if he were to get a slight uptick in minutes, we're looking at someone who could potentially grab 15-plus rebounds. Obviously watch the news on Aminu as we progress throughout the day.
A pivot we could look at other than Davis could possibly be Noah Vonleh. Vonleh played in his first game of the season on Wednesday and played 13 minutes. If Aminu sits, someone is going to see an uptick in minutes, and just last year, we saw Vonleh start plenty of games and even log up to 30 minutes in some games. If he is given the OK to play as many minutes as he can handle, sign me up on a slate we need to differentiate in.