If you have consistent wide receivers in fantasy football, then you have a good chance of winning every week. But how do you factor "consistency" into your rankings, sleeper picks, or start 'em, sit 'em decisions? It's not easy at WR, but if you don't try to incorporate WR consistency into your draft strategy, then you're risking some big bust weeks to go along with the booms.
All fantasy owners have experienced being the second-highest scorer in a given week and still losing. Even more frustrating is ranking top four in total points but missing the playoffs. "Bad luck?" Sure, to some degree. We can't control the inevitable injuries, odd coaching decisions, or other variables, but we do have some control over how risky our receivers are.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2022 fantasy cheat sheet
Over at BigGuyFantasySports.com, we have a "Clutch Report" that calculates the "Clutch Factor" that a receiver must exceed every week to earn a "Clutch Game." The Clutch Factor is tailored to the number of teams in your league and the scoring format. For example, in a 12-team PPR league, a wide receiver must earn over 11 fantasy points each week to earn a "Clutch Game."
2022 CONSISTENCY RATINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Tight end
Finding consistent players is easier with BigGuyFantasySports.com's "Clutch Rating." A highly consistent player will have a CR north of 70 percent. The elite fantasy studs will be between 80-90 percent.
2022 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
Heading into every season, we look for potentially underrated players who offer steady, consistent production. In addition, we project potentially overvalued players based on their, shall we say, consistency issues.
Here's how we tier/rank the WRs based on projected consistency and overall potential.
2022 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
Consistency Ratings 2022: Rankings, tiers for most consistent fantasy WRs
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A ranking of WR1A means I expect them to earn an 80 percent or higher Clutch Rate in 2022. I currently only have three ranked at that level. Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, and Davante Adams all have the potential to be even higher than 85 percent, which all three did last season. Adams is obviously the riskiest because he's on a new team, but at least he has a high-volume QB he's familiar with. The remaining nine wide receivers are all ranked as WR1B. This means I expect them to exceed 70 percent or higher. Obviously, the higher-ranked wide receivers, such as Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs, are expected to earn much higher than 70 percent but probably won’t exceed 80 percent. The lower-ranked wide receivers certainly could exceed the 70-percent Clutch Rating, but the lower ranking means less probability.
The WR2A receivers have proven consistency from the past and should continue between 65-70 percent this season. The WR2B tier is a collection of wide receivers who have the potential to earn over a 60-percent CR. There are still some excellent values, such as Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, and Brandin Cooks.
The WR3As and WR3Bs are consistent enough that I expect to earn a 50-60-percent CR. Some are young receivers moving up from last year, like Darnell Mooney, DeVonta Smith, and Allen Lazard. Others, like Robert Woods and JuJu Smith-Schuster, are declining veterans who were more consistent and in higher tiers in the past.
2022 RANKINGS TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs
Let’s look at a pair of these wide receivers and see which are undervalued or overvalued based on their current ADPs.
2022 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Overall
Undervalued: Allen Lazard, Packers
Lazard isn't getting much love from the fantasy community considering he's technically the No. 1 receiver for the Packers. Green Bay added Sammy Watkins in free agency and Christian Watson in the draft, but Aaron Rodgers inevitably trusts Lazard more than the others. In Lazard’s last five games in 2022, he had an 80-percent CR. His current ADP is WR50 in Round 12. Holy cow! If you can draft Lazard as your WR4 or WR5, you're getting good value.
Overvalued: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins
Waddle had a tremendous rookie season. He ended the year No. 13 in PPR points among fantasy WRs. However, his consistency was 63 percent, which slotted him just 22nd. Now, Tyreek Hill comes into town and will be the No. 1 receiver in Miami. This means quite a bit of regression for Waddle in both targets, points, and consistency. His current ADP is WR16, which is just too rich for my blood in 2022.
2022 FANTASY SLEEPERS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | One from each team
Look, it’s nice to draft players who score a lot of points, but if they don’t put up a decent number every week, then you could easily lose your matchups. If you don't make the playoffs, you can't win a title.
If you want to see more of our Clutch Reports and Consistency Ratings ahead of your fantasy draft, check out our award- winning Fantasy Football Consistency Guide for 2022. You can also follow me on Twitter @bob_lung.
Don’t miss out on the 2022 Fantasy Football Expo during the weekend of Aug. 12-14, 2022 in Canton, Ohio! Go to The Fantasy Football Expo for tickets!
