In a Monday Night Football clash of high-scoring teams on opposite ends of the NFC standings, the winless Falcons travel to Lambeau Field to face the undefeated Packers. The Packers are listed as -7 favorites and -330 on the moneyline. With veteran quarterbacks, subpar defenses, and a ton of injuries, the over/under for this prime-time affair is a whopping 56.5 points.
The BetQL NFL Best Bet Model projects the total score at 60 points and puts a maximum-confidence five-star rating on the OVER. The model also has a five-star rating on its halftime pick against the spread, and a three-star rating on the full-game spread. Keep reading to see the full Best Bet Model results.
MNF DK SHOWDOWN LINEUPS: ATL-GB | NE-KC
Falcons-Packers Betting Preview
Falcons Outlook
If Atlanta cannot turn things around soon, coach Dan Quinn’s job could be on the line. The Falcons’ front-runner offense and pitiful defense have teamed up to somehow blow two 15-point leads in two consecutive fourth quarters. In an unfathomable series of collapses in Week 2, they led the Cowboys 20-0 (and 39-24 with 7:57 left in the fourth quarter), only to lose 40-39. Then last week, they blew a 26-10 lead with 6:24 left in the fourth quarter against the Bears, losing 30-26 despite Chicago benching starter Mitchell Trubisky for Nick Foles.
The Falcons have thrown the ball early and efficiently but struggled to move it whatsoever in crunch time. Their choke jobs have been mired with three-and-outs, poor play-calling, and terrible late-game decision-making by veteran quarterback Matt Ryan.
The worst part is that Atlanta has All-Pro talent at receiver. Third-year superstar Calvin Ridley has 21 receptions for 349 yards (second best in the NFL), good for 16.6 yards per catch. His four touchdowns and 15.4 yards per touch both lead the league. He lines up across from two-time All-Pro and seven-time Pro Bowler Julio Jones, who can still take the top off the offense at age 31. Ryan always seems to let defensive pressure rattle him late in games, though, and ends up missing his receivers badly or throwing the ball to the other team.
Atlanta’s defense has obviously not helped its cause. The Falcons rank last on defense, and they look physically banged up and emotionally bruised ahead of a prime-time tilt with the league’s No. 1 offense. Falcons edge rusher Takk McKinley, who leads the Falcons with seven QB hits, has been ruled out with a groin injury. Fellow defensive end and big offseason acquisition Dante Fowler has been dealing with an ankle injury but should suit up Monday night. The Falcons will need defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (team-leading 2.5 sacks) and their front seven to establish some kind of interior pressure on Rodgers to have a chance at the upset.
Atlanta also needs to execute the fundamentals. If kicker Younghoe Koo doesn’t miss a key 48-yard field goal at the start of the fourth quarter in Chicago, the Falcons probably win. If just one special teams player jumps on the on-side kick one week earlier against Dallas, Quinn’s seat might not be as flaming hot.
If the Falcons attack the Packers secondary with efficiency through the air, they should be able to keep up with Rodgers. If they can establish the run with veteran back Todd Gurley, who has enjoyed career per-game averages of 136.5 rushing yards and 40.5 receiving yards against Green Bay, they might just be able to hold a lead. They just have to do something defensively to get to Rodgers, and they have to stay out of their own heads in crunch time offensively. The Falcons possess the talent to make the playoffs out of the competitive NFC South, but all bets are off if they blow another game and most likely fire their head coach.
Packers Outlook
Coming off a 2019 regular season in which they finished 13-3, the Packers once again look dominant in their second season with head coach Matt LaFleur. Undefeated through three games, they lead the NFL in points (122) and rank second in total yards (1,329) and rushing yards (515). Most impressive, Green Bay stands as the last team that has yet to turn the ball over once this season.
As usual, veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers has his fingerprints all over Green Bay’s success. The 36-year-old two-time MVP has thrown for 887 yards (sixth best in the league) and nine touchdowns (tied for third with reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes). His 121.1 QB rating trails only Russell Wilson and Josh Allen.
It might be difficult for Rodgers to keep up his MVP-contending pace this week, as his top two receivers highlight the Packers’ 13-player injury report. Three-time Pro Bowler Davante Adams (hamstring) will miss his second-consecutive game, and Week 3 breakout Allen Lazard (six catches for 146 yards and a touchdown at New Orleans) could miss up to six weeks after undergoing core muscle surgery. Adams and Lazard have combined for 30 of Green Bay’s 71 receptions this season, as well as 446 combined receiving yards and four total touchdowns.
Fourth-year running back Aaron Jones will once again be busy, likely reaching or exceeding his per-game averages of 16.7 carries and 4.5 targets. Jones ranks second in the league with 303 rushing yards, and he’s tied for the league lead with four touchdowns on the ground. He averages 6.1 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per reception on the young season.
On paper, this seems like a walk-in-the-park game for Rodgers and the Packers at home with momentum on their side. The Falcons bleed points to opposing passing attacks and have already blown multiple leads due to poor late-game execution. But the injury Gods have been very unkind to Green Bay, and things get a whole lot more interesting when Rodgers’ top two receivers are unable to suit up. That could explain BetQL’s Sharp Bettor Report, which shows that 58 percent of tickets have the Packers, while only 33 percent of the money is on them.
Rodgers will be left with Valdez-Scantling as his No. 1 receiver, likely mixing in his tight ends and relatively-unknown wide receivers. Jones will have to be featured early and often for the Packers to be able to pull off the win, never mind the cover. The Falcons rank in the middle of the pack against the run (113.0 rush yards allowed per game), but they struggle mightily against the pass (350.3 passing yards allowed per game, second worst in the NFL). If Rodgers pulls this one off, he might vault up to second in what would be a tight MVP race.
Prediction
BetQL’s NFL model lists the Falcons +7 as a three-star bet, but we list the Packers as a two-star bet on the moneyline -315. The model points out that in his time coaching Atlanta, Dan Quinn is 3-9 against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game. Green Bay has no turnovers through three games. The model lists two five-star bets as its favorite plays this game: The Falcons to cover +4 in the first half and the OVER to hit on the total of 56.5 (the model projects 60 total points). Check out BetQL’s NFL Best Bets Dashboard to see what our algorithm has targeted as the strongest plays for the Chiefs vs. Patriots Monday night game! You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!