Week 9 closes with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and Giants, and it's clearly bettors think this is a mismatch. Per BetQL’s NFL public betting dashboard, 59 percent of the total tickets and 62 percent of the money has been wagered on the Cowboys (-6.5) as of Monday afternoon. Dallas actually opened as eight-point favorites, and over the week, the spread has moved in New York’s direction. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard, as well as movements in the moneyline and over/under total.
On the surface, the Giants (2-6) look like an obvious pretender that is rebuilding around rookie quarterback Daniel Jones and second-year stud Saquon Barkley. However, it’s important to note that Jones is 2-4 as the team’s starter and their last two defeats came by six or fewer points. They’ve also dealt with some devastating injuries so far. Further, Eli Manning was under center in the Week 1 meeting between these teams when Dallas throttled New York 35-17.
MORE BETQL: Exclusive wagering tools for tonight's game
All data presented is as of Monday afternoon
Cowboys outlook
After getting off to a 3-0 start, Dallas dropped its next three contests, which led to rumblings regarding Jason Garrett’s job security. A dominant 37-10 victory over the Eagles in Week 7, the benefit of a Week 8 bye and an extra day of rest suggests that the Cowboys will be fresh and ready to go in this matchup.
In that blowout win over the Eagles, Dallas ran the ball 36 times for 189 yards and three touchdowns compared to 27 passing attempts from Dak Prescott. After three straight losses, it got back to its ground-and-pound style of play behind its elite offensive line.
According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics, Dallas has the best offense in the entire NFL, which makes sense given the playmakers on that side of the ball. Surrounding Prescott are Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper, recognized among the league’s top talent at their respective positions.
But despite that constant threat of a massive scoring output by Dallas’ offense, its brutal first-half performance against the Dolphins in Week 3 followed by a 10-point showing in Week 4 against the Saints and a 22-point performance in a loss to the Jets in Week 6 leaves a bit of uncertainty on the table.
Rather than trying to speculate what version of Dallas’ offense comes to play on Monday night, consider the following trends, listed on BetQL’s Giants/Cowboys game page: Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 43-58 ATS on turf, 2-9 ATS in games directly after scoring 24 first-half points in the previous contest, 8-17 ATS against teams with winning percentages below 40 percent, and 36-47 ATS as a betting favorite.
Check out BetQL to see our NFL picks against the spread are on for Week 10.
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Giants outlook
It’s safe to say that the move from Manning to Jones has paid off for the Giants.
Overall, the rookie has thrown for 1,466 yards, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions with an 84.4 QB rating and has also added 134 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Most important, he’s more of a threat to defenses than Manning was due to his arm strength and ability to extend plays in the pocket while avoiding pressure.
Further, the Giants could benefit from the presence of Leonard Williams, who they acquired from the Jets before the trade deadline passed. He could make an immediate impact in the middle of New York’s defensive line.
Prediction
BetQL’s NFL Model labels the Giants (+6.5) as the best spread bet in this matchup but lists the Cowboys’ -320 NFL moneyline as the preferred wager. Therefore, the data suggests that Dallas will win the game outright but not cover. Per our game page, the Cowboys have gone 19-3 outright in the second half of the season against passing defenses that allow a 64 percent completion rate (or worse) during Garrett’s tenure. They’ve also gone 22-6 outright after a game in which they had a plus-2 turnover margin (or better).
So, expect Dallas to pull off the victory, but for the game to be closer than the spread indicates.
You can find all updated NFL lines, odds and spreads at BetQL!