Vamos a México! The Chiefs (6-4) will square off against the Chargers (4-6) at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on this week’s international version of Monday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs are listed as 4.5-point favorites while the over/under total is set at 53 points.
This game could end up having a monumental impact in the playoff picture, as both teams are looking to stay in the hunt in the AFC. A loss would be devastating to either club, especially the Chargers, who would likely fall out of serious contention. Neither team has a cakewalk in regards to their future opponents either, which makes this contest even more important.
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Let’s take a look at a few important angles for both squads. All data presented is as of Monday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
Chiefs outlook
Under Andy Reid, Kansas City has gone 28-9 against AFC West opponents. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they’re one of those organizations. Per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard, 50 percent of total bets have been wagered on Kansas City’s moneyline (-235), but 74 percent of the total money has gone on it. That means the sharps are all over the Chiefs to win this game outright.
The public has shown support for Kansas City against the spread. In fact, 61 percent of total bets have been placed on the Chiefs at -4.5, while 72 percent of the total money has been wagered on them, once again show that the pros are all over Mahomes and company.
Estadio Azteca is 7,200 feet above sea level. For comparison, Denver’s Mile High Stadium is aptly named and is 5,280 feet above sea level. In case you missed the memo, the ball tends to carry much better in higher elevations. That could spell trouble for the Chargers’ secondary, who will have to deal with Mahomes’ rocket arm and the fact that he can probably throw the ball 70-80 yards downfield in this setting (where either Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman might be running 10 yards past their respective defenders by that time). The Chargers rank 23rd in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3).
While Kansas City’s running back position has been a bit of a revolving door this year and LeSean McCoy was a surprise healthy scratch last week, it seems like Damien Williams might be the one to receive the majority of the snaps moving forward. He took 19 carries for 77 yards last week and also caught five passes for 32 more yards. Whatever back receives carries will do so in a complementary role to Mahomes and his receivers, who will likely do most of the heavy lifting.
Kansas City’s defense continued to get gashed on the ground last week. That time, Titans workhorse Derrick Henry amassed 188 rushing yards on 23 carries and also scored two touchdowns. That might spell trouble against the new-look Chargers offense.
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Chargers outlook
Since Shane Steichen took over as Los Angeles’ OC, life has gotten much better for Melvin Gordon (20-80-1 and 3-29, 22-108-1 and 1-25 in consecutive weeks). The Chargers will likely continue to give Gordon 20-plus carries if the game remains close, and he should be able to eat against a defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (148.1) and 30th in yards per carry (5.1).
Despite the fact that he has a number of talented weapons around him (Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams), Philip Rivers has thrown three touchdowns and four interceptions combined over his past three games. While the Chargers have won two of those contests, Rivers is most likely going to be relied upon to make things happen with his arm in this one, especially if Mahomes and company put up points early.
As mentioned above, preventing big plays is necessary against this Chiefs offense. If the Chargers cannot establish a legitimate pass rush or get things going offensively (to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands), the reigning MVP could easily replicate his 446-yard, three-touchdown performance he had last week.
Prediction
BetQL’s NFL Model lists the Chiefs’ -235 moneyline as the best bet in this matchup and fully expects Kansas City to win outright. Check out BetQL’s NFL expert picks to find out who the algorithm likes for the spread and over/under bets.