It’s the final Friday slate of June, and we're closing in on the midpoint of the season. It's been a fun one so far with a whole new crop of young, talented pitchers making their debuts and having varying degrees of success. Tonight, we have slightly fewer choices than usual with "just" 12 games on the main DFS slate for FanDuel and DraftKings.
RotoBaller has all your fantasy baseball and DFS needs! Check our probable pitchers page to see all of today’s starters, and be sure to utilize our MLB DFS Optimizer to create unique lineups for tonight’s slate!
When we're looking for pitchers, we want to target guys who can limit runs and pitch deep enough into games to pick up wins. That said, we don’t always need to target pitchers on heavily favored teams. In fact, we want strikeouts more than anything whenever possible, as the scoring system on both FanDuel and DraftKings really rewards pitchers who rack up Ks.
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Best starting pitchers, sleeper SPs for Friday's MLB DFS contests
By Dan Palyo
Shane McClanahan, Rays @ Mariners ($11,000 DK, $11,000 FD)
I’m a bit leery of committing to the Tampa Bay ace after he struggled against the Royals in his last start, leaving early with an injury. However, he’s had an entire week off and reportedly threw his usual bullpen sessions without any issues.
The other expensive lefty with strikeout upside today is James Paxton, but he has the tough task of going into Toronto and facing a lineup full of good righthanded hitters. McClanahan’s matchup is considerably better, as Seattle features a middling offense with strikeout numbers against LHPs among the league’s worst (26.9 percent on the season).
I don’t think Mac is a "must" in cash games, as we have another ace with a pretty safe floor that is quite a bit cheaper, but he could be a solid play for tournaments at relatively low ownership.
Pablo Lopez, Twins @ Orioles ($9,900 DK, $9,500 FD)
Lopez might have an ERA over 4.00 this season, but he’s enjoying a breakout this year when it comes to strikeouts, bringing a 30-percent strikeout rate into tonight’s matchup with the Orioles. That’s the second-best mark of any pitcher on the board after James Paxton, and Lopez has been really effective at getting Ks lately, whiffing nine, nine, and 10 hitters in his past three starts.
Baltimore is a good offense, so there is some danger here from a run-prevention angle, but Lopez is still firmly in consideration due to his strikeout prowess. He leads all of today’s starters in projected strikeouts with 7.4 in my model, and he continues to throw strikes, only walking multiple batters in one of his past five starts.
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Bobby Miller, Dodgers @ Royals ($8,900 DK, $9,800 FD)
Miller has hit a bit of a rough patch in his past two starts, allowing seven and six earned runs to the Giants and Astros, respectively, the last two times out. However, I think we saw enough of the good in the first four starts (just two earned runs allowed over 23 innings) to know that this kid will bounce back.
This is a great spot for Miller to get back on track, as the Royals have just a .290 wOBA against righties this year and a lowly 80 wRC+. They also strike out nearly 25 percent of the time against RHPs and were dominated by Cleveland righties Gavin Williams and Shane Bieber earlier this week.
We don’t know just how good Miller will be yet, but he has flashed a high-90s fastball with an above-average breaking ball that has led to a 23-percent strikeout rate. I don’t want to pay more for him than Lopez on FanDuel, but at $8,900 on DraftKings, Miller is firmly in play for me tonight.
Dean Kremer, Orioles vs. Twins ($8,100 DK, $8,700 FD)
Kremer is a pitcher who I would often target with hitting stacks last season, but this year, I've found myself using him in DFS lineups more often.
Kremer is now 7-3 on the season, and while his ERA is still 4.50, he’s beefed up his strikeouts quite a bit. He’s whiffed five or more hitters in seven straight games and just finished his longest start of the season against the Mariners (7 IP).
The appeal with Kremer today is strikeouts, as Minnesota leads the league in strikeout percentage against RHPs. I have Kremer projected up around six strikeouts today, and if he can continue to keep the ball in the yard, then I think he could smash this price. Minnesota is an opponent we should continue to pick on for strikeouts, especially when it has been rolling out lineups with so many strikeout-prone hitters.
Osvaldo Bido, Pirates vs. Brewers ($7,800 DK, $7,800 FD)
I think a lot of DFS players may gravitate toward the other pitcher in this game, Freddy Peralta, as he is a much more well-known quantity and makes for a fine play if you’re willing to pay up for him.
However, Bido is my favorite value on this slate based on the limited sample that we have from him so far across his first three major league starts.
Bido has an impressive 25-percent strikeout rate and seven-percent walk rate. He’s faced the Cubs twice and the Marlins once, so the Brewers will pose a bit more of a challenge, but they are fourth in MLB in strikeout percentage vs. RHPs at 25.1 percent.
There are strikeouts to be had here for Bido, and if he can hold the Brewers at bay for even five innings, I think he can easily make value at this price point.
