If you love good pitching matchups, then tonight’s slate of baseball games is for you. There are going to be some tough calls to make when selecting your favorite MLB pitchers for the main slate DFS contests on FanDuel and DraftKings that lock at 7:05 p.m. ET.
RotoBaller has all your fantasy baseball and DFS needs! Check our probable pitchers page to see all of today’s starters, and be sure to utilize our MLB DFS Optimizer to create unique lineups for tonight’s slate!
When we are looking for which pitchers to play, we want guys with solid run prevention and a good chance at pitching deep enough into the game to pick up the win. But we don’t always have to target pitchers on teams that are heavily favored either. In fact, we want strikeouts more than anything whenever possible, as the scoring system on both FanDuel and DraftKings really rewards pitchers who rack up Ks.
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Best starting pitchers, sleeper SPs for Friday's MLB DFS contests
By Dan Palyo
Jacob deGrom, Rangers vs. Yankees ($11,500 DK, $11.400 FD)
Even on a slate full of aces, deGrom tops the list. He’s been as dominant in Texas as he was when healthy for the Mets, so Rangers fans just have to keep their fingers crossed that his arm holds up.
The Rangers host the Yankees tonight, and New York has seen its strikeout rate increase over the past week with Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and Harrison Bader all being out. Aaron Judge also left last night’s game early and is set to possibly miss this entire series, so this lineup just lost its best hitter, too.
Don’t be scared off by the Yankee name. Without Judge and Stanton, this lineup is mediocre (at best), and deGrom can whiff double-digit hitters tonight if he has his good stuff. He’s a cash-game lock for me even though there are a lot of options. We want the top projected raw points guy in my cash build whenever possible.
Framber Valdez, Astros vs. Phillies ($10,000 DK, $10,500 FD)
Valdez takes the hill at home tonight against the Fightin’ Phils in a World Series rematch. He was spectacular against them last fall and is coming off his best outing of this season when he struck out nine Braves over seven frames in a 6-3 win.
There aren’t too many guys that can maintain an elite ground-ball rate and low walk rate while still striking out a bunch of batters. Valdez has it all going, though, and has shown he can do it against good teams, too.
It's great knowing that he can pitch deep into games, especially early in the year when we have seen some teams keep their starters on tight pitch counts and short leashes. Valdez has thrown 90-plus pitches in four of his five starts and went 100-plus in two of those. He’s going to stay out there as long as he can and is a good bet for six or seven innings whenever he’s on the bump.
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Zach Eflin, Rays at White Sox ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD)
Let me just start by saying kudos to FanDuel for being more aggressive with their pricing this season. Eflin at $10K on a one-pitcher site is probably not the route I'm going since you can just pay a little more for Valdez or deGrom, but that will also mean very low ownership on FanDuel if you’re looking for a contrarian GPP play.
Eflin has made just three starts this year for his new team, but he’s scoring around 20 DK points per outing and has been incredibly efficient with just 74 pitches per outing. The pitch count thing with Tampa makes me a little nervous, especially after they yanked Shane McClanahan after just 72 pitches last night, but it’s still hard to ignore how good Eflin has been and how bad the White Sox have been on offense.
Eflin has allowed just one walk through his first 16 innings while piling up 16 strikeouts. If you can find enough value with bats, pairing him with deGrom as your SP2 in cash games makes a lot of sense today.
Max Fried, Braves @ Mets ($7,700 DK, $9,400 FD)
This is a DraftKings-specific play, as we have to do some price enforcement here with Mr. Fried. He’s far too talented of a pitcher to be priced down like this, and I’m not sure why the DK algorithm hates him today.
He left his first start early with an injury, which is the reason for his measly seen DK points against Washington. Since returning from injury, he’s pitched wonderfully, posting 20-plus DK points against San Diego and Houston. He kept both teams completely off the scoreboard and lowered his ERA to a miniscule 0.60 and his WHIP to 0.93.
The strikeouts haven’t been there, but he’s not much of a strikeout pitcher. What he does offer is elite control and a fantastic ground-ball rate. The Mets are a tough matchup for anyone, especially lefties, but Fried has the tools to hold them in check. If you’re looking for a cheaper FanDuel play in the $8K range, then consider Dustin May, Nick Pivetta, or Jack Flaherty.
Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks at Rockies ($7,300 DK, $7,900 FD)
Start a pitcher in Coors Field? I know, let’s get crazy today. I mentioned those last three pitchers (May, Pivetta, Flaherty) that are priced between Fried and Kelly because I wanted to go out on a limb here with my final pick. Kelly is by far the riskiest of the bunch, but I think my favorite for tournaments of the cheaper options.
I can guarantee you that Kelly will be no more than five-percent rostered in just about any contest tonight on either site. My lean here is to use him on DraftKings as an SP2 and pair him with a safer, high-priced option as your SP1.
The park factor thing is a real concern, as Coors finds a way to produce runs one way or another. From a sheer matchup sense, Kelly has one of the better ones tonight, as he gets a Colorado offense that has struggled badly in the first month of the season. Sure, they are better at home, but they’re still not very good.
Consider that guys like Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez came in Coors recently and shut down this Rockies offense before you write off Kelly. His stats won’t really pop off the page (he allows a lot of contact and walks too many guys), but he also usually finds a way to dodge enough bullets to get through five or six innings and limit the damage. I like his chances of picking up a win here, too, as his offense matches up well with Kyle Freeland, who is pitching for the Rockies.
