Melvin Gordon Fantasy Football Outlook: As holdout ends, questions surround Gordon, Austin Ekeler

Billy Heyen

Melvin Gordon Fantasy Football Outlook: As holdout ends, questions surround Gordon, Austin Ekeler image

Melvin Gordon will report to the Chargers on Thursday, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. That ends a contract holdout that began in the summer and has continued through the early part of the season. Gordon would’ve been a top-10 player in fantasy football drafts if not for the holdout concerns, which knocked him further and further down the rankings and opened the door for handcuff Austin Ekeler to become a top fantasy RB. 

Gordon’s return puts a huge question mark next to the fantasy value of Ekeler (as well as Gordon himself). Justin Jackson now becomes the Chargers’ third-stringer and will have no fantasy utility once Gordon is activated.

(Update: Jackson is out for Week 4, and Gordon could play a limited role, according to Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn.)

WEEK 4 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

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Will Melvin Gordon play Week 4?

Gordon will not play in Week 4, according to Rapoport, who tweeted that he's planning on being "back in the fold with his teammates." Unlike a player who was traded, recently drafted or signed in free agency, Gordon should know the Chargers’ playbook to nearly its full extent. What’s less certain is the shape that Gordon is in.

It’s likely that whenever Gordon first takes the field -- likely Week 5 against Denver -- his workload will be reduced for a week, much like we saw with Ezekiel Elliott in Week 1 after he reported less than a week before the opener. That week, Cowboys’ backup Tony Pollard saw about a third of the Dallas offensive snaps.

WEEK 4 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiverTight end

Melvin Gordon fantasy outlook

As it looks now, Gordon will probably suit up in Week 5 with a potentially reduced workload. Then, in Week 6, he should start getting the majority of backfield work for L.A. That should yield solid rushing/scoring numbers, though it's worth pointing out that prior to last season, Gordon had not averaged more than 3.9 yards per carry. It's possible that last year's 5.1 ypc was somewhat of an aberration and Gordon will regress mightily. On top of that, Ekeler has proven to be one of the top receiving backs in football, and it's possible Gordon won't be used as much in the passing game, especially over the next few weeks. That could limit him to RB2 status the rest of the way, depending how often he can get into the end zone.

Austin Ekeler fantasy outlook

Ekeler’s been too good in 2019 for the Chargers to relegate him to "change-of-pace" status. This was evident even last season when the Chargers were sure to involve Ekeler even when Gordon was healthy.

In the 11 games that both Ekeler and Gordon were active together in 2018, Ekeler averaged 9.4 standard-scoring fantasy points per game. The lowest percentage of L.A. offensive snaps that Ekeler received in those games was 17 percent and his high was 41 percent. In seven of those 11 games, Ekeler saw the field on at least a third of snaps. 

Ekeler was used some on third downs in his backup role, catching 27 passes across the 11 games he and Gordon both played in last season. 

We could see Ekeler maintain a slightly bigger role now that he’s proven what he can do in more time, possibly closer to that 40-percent mark that he reached once last year. That’s still going to be a tricky way for him to have fantasy value on a week-to-week basis, though. During bye weeks, he’ll probably work as a standard-league FLEX and RB2 in PPR formats. 

We wouldn’t advise dropping Ekeler. He’s too talented, we don’t know how the Chargers will split the workload, and he’s an injury away from being a top-10 fantasy RB again. Even trading him could be hard because everyone knows Gordon is returning. It might be best to stand pat and just take what you can get from Ekeler at this point.

With Gordon not expected to play in Week 4, Ekeler remains a must-start against the putrid Dolphins and Jackson is in play as a FLEX possibility. Gordon's return should be a boost to the Chargers' offense overall, but Ekeler and Jackson will be the biggest losers from this news.

Billy Heyen