Kareem Hunt will return from his eight-game suspension and presumably be active for the Browns on Sunday against the Bills. Hunt hasn't played since Week 11 of 2018. In his time in Kansas City, he was one of the top RBs in fantasy football. His return could have major implications both for Cleveland's starting running back, Nick Chubb, and the rest of the Browns' offense. Fantasy football value could be tough to come by for Hunt, but a player with his talent could also seize the opportunity and force Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens to play him more.
At least in Week 10, it's probably safe to assume it will be mostly business as usual with your Browns' offensive players. But as we head down the stretch and toward the fantasy playoffs, it's important to have an understanding of just what Hunt brings to the Browns and whether owners of Chubb should be concerned about Hunt's return.
WEEK 10 NON-PPR RANKINGS
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Kareem Hunt fantasy outlook
At his best, Hunt is a dynamic three-down running back. There's nothing lacking in his rushing or pass-catching that Cleveland could point to as a weakness that should keep him on the sideline. If they want to use Hunt as a ball-carrier, that should work - he's averaged 4.7 yards per carry in his career. Maybe the long layoff affects that, but not by enough that on a per-carry basis it makes Hunt much less appealing. Cleveland could also use Hunt as a receiving back, as he's averaged 2.9 catches and 30.9 receiving yards per game in his two-year career.
Fantasy football players obviously don't just get points for good averages - there needs to be volume. That's the biggest unknown. Kitchens told reporters that Hunt will "definitely have a role" in his 2019 debut. It's also important to remember Hunt also had sports hernia surgery during his suspension, so that's an added complication as he takes the field for a regular season game for the first time in about a year.
The most obvious role in Cleveland's offense for Hunt is as a pass-catching back, where Dontrell Hilliard has held a larger role than Chubb in recent weeks. Hilliard caught all six of his targets across Weeks 8 and 9. Three catches a game for Hunt wouldn't be enough to give him PPR value unless he was also getting six-plus carries -- possible but not guaranteed. Maybe we can assume Hunt gets one more catch per game than Hilliard was getting because Cleveland wants to get him the ball more. Four catches for 42 yards starts to become a decent PPR floor.
To be frank, we really don't know whether Hunt will have a small role, a medium role or even overtake Chubb eventually (the most unlikely outcome barring injury). At this point, Hunt should be owned in most fantasy leagues because it's not often you can pick up a player with his talent. You just might be forced to hold him for a few weeks while this all shakes out, and hope that maybe by the fantasy playoffs, Hunt has a secure enough role to start for you.
WEEK 10 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP
How does Kareem Hunt's return affect Nick Chubb?
In five of the past six weeks, Chubb has received at least 20 carries. He's also averaged 3.1 receptions per game. To expect those numbers not to take at least a slight hit with Hunt active would be foolish. The tricky part is figuring out how much.
Chubb's workload on the ground hasn't been gameflow dependent. He's averaged about as many rushes in games the Browns win as games they lose. It seems that part of Cleveland's offensive approach is to try and get him 20 carries a game. No matter how talented the RB who's joining Chubb in the backfield, there's almost no chance the Browns decide Chubb should only get 12 carries a game instead of 20. So, we're talking about a potentially small drop -- maybe down to 16 rushes per contest, on average.
You wouldn't fool anyone now by trying to trade Chubb. It would be obvious that at least a part of the motive would be Hunt-related. And Cleveland has one of the most fantasy friendly playoff schedules in football, so even if Chubb loses a bit of work, he can still give you around 16 fantasy points more often than not down the stretch.
In short, the best you can do at this point is hold onto Chubb. If one of the next couple games suggests that Chubb's workload will decline in a big way, then maybe you need to start looking for alternative starters, but he won't have any trade value at that point. If you sell Chubb now, you're probably getting 75 cents on the dollar for him in return. Cross your fingers that he maintains the majority of his job, which would keep him as an every-week fantasy starter.
Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry fantasy outlook
The most likely player to be positively affected by Hunt in the Browns offense is Mayfield. He's struggled all year, and it's not because he has no good receiving backs. But adding one of the best pass-catching RBs in football could only help him. Maybe Cleveland starts to right the ship at some point and Hunt is just one additional weapon to what could be a high-powered offense.
Neither Beckham nor Landry should see a major impact from Hunt. Landry would conceptually be more susceptible as the receiver who more frequently runs short patterns, but he's been involved fine even with Cleveland's current passing to Chubb and Hilliard.
The biggest hope with Hunt back is that it just provides a boost to the whole Cleveland offense, getting them into the end zone more often overall, something that would help everyone.