With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman out of Kansas City, the sky is the limit in 2023 for Chiefs wide receiver and popular sleeper pick Kadarius Toney. Of course, with the 24-year-old coming off arthroscopic surgery for a partially torn meniscus, his floor is also limbo-low. Let's fully assess Toney's draft value and decide whether he makes for a good pick at his ADP.
Toney's skill set is undeniable. He has flashed brilliance throughout his young career for the Giants, the squad that drafted him, as well as the Super Bowl-champion Chiefs, who acquired him during the 2022 season ahead of their triumphant run. However, his injury concerns are massive, and he has also struggled with game-to-game consistency and has never been a WR1.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach have repeatedly expressed optimism that Toney will be ready for Week 1 against the Lions after his July surgery, but how can we trust that? Through two NFL seasons, Toney has played just 19-of-34 regular season games, and he has missed almost the entirety of training camp and the preseason this summer.
When he did play — especially in Kansas City — Toney had some special moments. His chemistry with Patrick Mahomes was unmistakable, as evidenced by their connection on 14-of-17 targets and their average net gain of 12.2 yards per reception. He had a five-catch game in Kansas City's first playoff game against the Jaguars, and he hauled in a TD in the Chiefs' Super Bowl win over the Eagles. However, the overall volume across his 10 total games with K.C. left plenty to be desired.
Below, we'll break down Toney's 2023 fantasy outlook, and decide whether he's a smart draft pick at his ADP in fantasy football leagues.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Kadarius Toney injury update: How long will Chiefs' WR be out?
UPDATE 9/4: Toney returned to Chiefs practice on Monday ahead of Week 1. He was later listed as a limited participant.
UPDATE 8/29: The Chiefs remain "optimistic" that Toney will be ready for Week 1.
Toney hurt his right knee on a punt return drill in late July at the beginning of Kansas City's training camp. He underwent surgery on a partially torn meniscus in that knee just days later. He has yet to return, but Chiefs beat writers have consistently shared the team's optimism that he's nearing a return and should be ready for the defending champions' NFL regular season kickoff versus the Lions at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday, Sept. 7.
We love to hear that we could see Toney in the first prime-time game of the 2023 season, but we're not holding our breath. Draft Sharks lists the speedy wideout as a "very high risk," citing his various hamstring, ankle, knee, quad, shoulder, and abdominal injuries over the past six years. The guy has racked up more ailments by 24 than I have in my entire 38 years, and I'm a donut-loving, rec. volleyball and basketball player with a dad bod.
Even if Toney does suit up for Week 1, it seems like we'll be asking "when," not "if" he gets hurt again and misses time. He has now missed most of training camp two times in three years, and he had offseason knee surgery in each of the past two offseasons. He is, by definition, an injury risk.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Kadarius Toney's 2023 fantasy ranking and ADP
Entering the season, SN Fantasy has Toney ranked as the No. 41 WR in PPR formats and No. 45 WR in standard leagues. We did have him listed as a sleeper, but in the sense that we expect him to outperform his ADP of 114. As alluring as his route-running, sure-handedness, and breakaway speed may be, we must not reach too far for this wideout.
But we would take Toney over multiple wide receivers going right around his ADP, including the Ravens' Odell Beckham Jr. (WR45), the Titans' Treylon Burks (WR48), and fellow Chiefs wideout Skyy Moore (WR47). If he can string together 12-plus healthy games, he will likely blow those other three receivers out of the water in 2023.
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Kadarius Toney's fantasy outlook 2023
Toney has explosive athleticism, with the ability to haul in tough catches and then cook defensive backs in the open field. We have seen glimpses of his blazing 4.4 speed with end-around plays and screens, and we expect to see more of that this season with Smith-Schuster and Hardman departed for greener salaries.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
But the question marks greatly outweigh the selling points. At just 24, Toney has a fatter injury rap sheet than more receivers in their 30s. Draft Sharks lists him as an 80-percent injury probability this season, and projects him to miss three-plus games. How can we argue that? He has missed a string of games four different times in his two-year NFL career.
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
Look, yours truly just drafted this guy at 154th overall. I selected six wide receivers ahead of him. The mentality at that point in the draft is that he's a boom-or-bust guy who could be a league-winner if he miraculously stays healthy all season and emerges as the Chiefs' new WR1 next to All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce. If he fizzles out or gets hurt — again — it's only the 154th pick I've wasted.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
As our friends at Draft Sharks wrote about Toney, "he might be the biggest risk/reward pick in fantasy football." That's a great line, and a speculation with which we can't argue. Toney could be a jackpot value at 150, but he could also very well be a bankroll buster at 120. Roll the dice if you want upside and have the depth elsewhere to take a chance, but temper your expectations and don't plug him in as a WR3 or flex until he gives you a reason to trust him.
