It can be beneficial for players to get game reps in the preseason, but for Bengals QB Joe Burrow, not playing in the exhibition season is nothing new. Burrow's logged just one passing attempt in the preseason through his first four years. Between not having a preseason in 2020 due to COVID, recovering from a torn ACL in '21, and undergoing an emergency appendectomy in '22, Burrow's used to suiting up for the first time during Week 1 of the regular season.
This preseason, a right calf strain sustained on July 27 has sidelined Burrow for the entirety of the exhibition slate. Fantasy owners are rightfully wondering if Burrow will play in the Bengals' regular-season opener in Cleveland on Sept. 10. Perhaps more important, is he a worthwhile fantasy draft pick at his current ADP?
Below, we'll break down Burrow's 2023 fantasy outlook and decide whether he's a smart draft pick in fantasy football leagues.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Joe Burrow injury update: How long will Bengals' QB be out?
UPDATE 9/4: According to Bengals head coach Zac Taylor, Burrow is "day-to-day." ESPN's Ben Baby said the coach stopped short of saying he'd be ready in time for Week 1.
UPDATE: According to ESPN's Ben Baby, Burrow (calf) returned to Bengals' practice on Aug. 30. Barring any setbacks, expect Cincinnati's QB1 to be under center for the team's regular-season opener on Sept. 10.
Burrow's calf strain suffered in late July carried a timeline of "several weeks," according to head coach Zac Taylor. Fast forward to late August, and it's been a month since Burrow was carted off the practice field.
At the time of injury, it was too early to speak on his status for Week 1, but on Aug. 21, Taylor told the media, "He (Burrow) looks great. I mean, physically just walking around, he looks probably as good as he's ever looked at this point." Given Burrow's yet to suffer any setbacks, look for the former No. 1 overall pick to return to game action for the Bengals' Week 1 road tilt against the Browns.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Joe Burrow's 2023 fantasy ranking and ADP
Entering the season, SN Fantasy has Burrow ranked as the overall QB4. Even if Burrow were to miss the first week or two of the regular season as a precautionary measure, it would have minimal effect on his season-long fantasy outlook. It would be challenging for the superstar QB to record a career-best 5,000-plus passing yards with 40-plus TDs, but Burrow would likely still contend for a top-five finish at his position.
Despite a preseason injury, FantasyPros has Burrow's ADP at No. 34, which translates to the overall QB5. Other QBs coming off the board around the same time as Burrow include Jalen Hurts (QB3), Lamar Jackson (QB4), Justin Herbert (QB6), and Justin Fields (QB7).
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Joe Burrow's fantasy outlook 2023
The one concern for Burrow's prospects of finishing the season as a top-five QB surrounds his legs. Burrow suffered his calf strain on a play in practice that forced him to leave the pocket, potentially resulting in Burrow being hesitant to leave the pocket in the early season.
Since 2020, the Bengals have surrendered the second-most sacks (147), trailing only the Bears (152), as Burrow's routinely been under pressure on his dropbacks. While he's more of a traditional pocket passer, Burrow has the agility to take what the defense gives him and utilize his legs when necessary. Last season, he totaled a career-best five rushing TDs on 257 yards, logging the seventh-most carries among QBs.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
When factoring in his calf strain coupled with a significantly more competent offense line, there's a chance Burrow averages fewer than 4.5 carries per game as he did in '22. That could hinder his chances of ending the fantasy season in the QB1 conversation. Still, his elite accuracy and cast of weapons out wide make him one of the most reliable fantasy options.
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
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Yes, there's a chance he reaggravates his calf strain or suffers a new injury, as Draft Sharks' injury predictor pegs Burrow as a "high risk", projecting the QB to miss 1.5 games this season. However, while he is injury-prone, Burrow's as durable as it comes among QBs, owning the best possible durability score per Draft Sharks' injury predictor at 5.00.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
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Given Burrow suits up for Cincinnati's regular season opener, he's a legit threat to post 5,000-plus passing yards and 40-plus passing TDs through 17 games, justifying his top-five fantasy ranking. He didn't take nearly as many deep shots in '22, with his deep throw rate dipping from 13.1 percent in '21 to 8.6 percent, but fantasy owners can expect him to chuck around the pigskin behind an improved o-line.
Burrow owns the highest completion percentage in NFL history with a minimum of 1,500 attempts at 68.24 percent, so while his rushing upside isn't there, he remains one of the most reliable fantasy QBs with his arm. Go ahead and draft Burrow at his ADP, and don't fret over his preseason setback.
