Mark Ingram was a highly successful fantasy RB in 2019 working with Lamar Jackson in the Ravens' backfield. That didn't stop the Ravens from selecting JK Dobbins in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft with the 55th overall pick. Ingram has reached that magic running back age of 30 which sometimes spells quick decline, so fantasy owners are wondering if Dobbins isn't just a sleeper or a handcuff, but soon to be a starting NFL running back and potential RB1.
Baltimore still has last year's rookie Justice Hill on its roster, along with veteran Gus Edwards. We know how much the Ravens love to run the football, so this probably won't ever totally be a one-man show (well, except for in Lamar's big games). Whether you should draft Dobbins or Ingram -- and when you should draft them -- depends mostly on when, if at all, you think the torch will be passed from veteran to rookie.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2020 cheat sheet
JK Dobbins fantasy outlook
From the moment Dobbins stepped on the Ohio State campus as a freshman, he was arguably the best RB in the Big 10. All three of his seasons ended with more than 1,000 yards, and in his junior year, Dobbins surpassed 2,000 rushing yards to go with 21 rushing touchdowns on a ridiculous 6.7 yards per carry average (which was actually lower than his 7.2 yards per rush as a freshman). He also caught between 22 and 26 passes in each of his three years for the Buckeyes.
Dobbins checks in at 5-10 but isn't a frail dude -- he's 212 pounds, according to Football Reference. He combines a dynamic mix of speed and strength, a la prime Maurice Jones-Drew.
FEED. JK. DOBBINS. FEED HIM THE BALL!!! pic.twitter.com/oEQpZbD3Iw
— Sports Report - Ohio State (@SROhioState) December 29, 2019
We know Dobbins can ball. The question is whether the Ravens will give him a chance in year one.
The Ravens' official website suggests that Dobbins' rookie year role could be similar to that of Ray Rice in 2008, when Rice rushed 107 times behind Willis McGahee. It's likely that the backfield breakdown at least starts that way, with Dobbins seeing eight-to-10 touches a game as a possible fantasy flex play.
The hope for anyone drafting Dobbins is that he performs well with his early-season touches. While it's unlikely he ever fully unseats Ingram while he's still a rookie, Dobbins could take the reins of the backfield in the second half with his fresher, younger legs. If Ingram gets hurt, Dobbins is an immediate RB2 with RB1 upside.
2020 STANDARD FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Superflex | Top 200
Mark Ingram fantasy outlook
A few running backs have pushed back on the 30-year old RB narrative in recent years -- just think of Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson still kicking it long into their 30s. But Ingram has carried more than 1,500 times in his NFL career, so it's likely his best days are behind him and not in front of him.
Thankfully for Ingram, the Baltimore offense and Jackson form the perfect situation for a running back. Unlike with most teams, Baltimore's biggest running threat is its QB, meaning that Ingram and co. work with less attention and more space than pretty much any other backfield. A year ago, that meant Ingram averaged 5.0 yards per carry, broke 1,000 yards on the ground, and scored 10 rushing touchdowns.
As we saw last year, though, Ingram's upside is already capped because of Jackson's rushing presence. Occasionally, Ingram found the end zone a couple times early in games, but other times Jackson served as a TD vulture himself.
Ingram is going off the board as the No. 23 RB in drafts, according to FantasyPros, which is probably a fair price. Dobbins goes off the board nine RBs later, so it wouldn't be a perfectly easy handcuff to acquire, although it can be done. The best bet here is that Ingram holds down RB2 value in the first half of the season, and that it will be Dobbins' first-half performance that determines which back matters more heading into the fantasy playoffs.
2020 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Superflex | Top 200
What about Justice Hill, Gus Edwards?
Last year, Hill was one of our favorite sleepers for a lot of the same reasons as Dobbins has now. The difference is mostly that Dobbins more readily fits the three-down running back mold that can make him a fantasy stud; Hill's upside still remains more as a receiving back in an offense that doesn't throw much.
The only way Hill or the veteran Edwards matter is in the case of injury. Edwards fits more on the depth-chart as an early-down backup, so if Ingram got hurt and Dobbins was off to an ineffective start, Edwards could see some carries. Hill is more of a deep-league PPR target at this point who likely only becomes slightly relevant if Dobbins gets hurt or isn't utilized on passing downs.