Last year did not go as planned for Javonte Williams. After a promising rookie campaign with over 1,200 all-purpose yards, the Broncos stud seemed like a top-10 RB in the making. However, four games into his sophomore season, he suffered a season-ending tear of his ACL, MCL, and PCL. Now, many fantasy football owners are asking "Should I draft Javonte Williams?"
Of course, the answer to such a question regarding any fantasy football player is rarely an absolute "yes" or "no." Drafting is all about value, which means we must fully analyze the risk vs. reward, injury concerns, and situational changes for each player before fully declaring them as a sleeper, breakout, fade, or bust.
Denver's 2021 2nd-round pick has plenty of talent — nobody could possibly dispute that after he averaged 5.0 yards per touch and scored four TDs in 21 attempts inside opponents' 10-yard-lines in his rookie year. But will he be healthy at the start of this season? Will his usage rate suffer now that the Broncos acquired former Bengal handcuff Samaje Perine and former Saint/Seahawk Tony Jones Jr.? These are the real questions.
Below, we'll address those questions and more as we break down Williams' 2023 fantasy outlook and decide whether he's a smart draft pick in fantasy football leagues.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Javonte Williams injury update: Will Williams be ready for Week 1?
Typically with a knee injury as significant as Williams' — a full tear of the ACL, MCL, and PCL — it takes at least a full year for a running back to fully rehab and return to competitive strength. However, Denver did not include Williams on its PUP list ahead of training camp, and all signs point to the third-year back starting the regular season on schedule.
Of course, don't take that as Williams being 100-percent recovered and ready for bell-cow usage. As Greg Scholz of The Athletic wrote recently, "such a wicked combo of injuries doesn't only affect knee stability but also its side-to-side movement," adding that they would "lean on a more conservative approach and predict an Optimal Recovery Time closer to Week 5."
Translation: Even if Williams does start the season in Week 1, it's entirely possible that Samaje Perine gets the bulk of the backfield work in the early going. We're talking about a Broncos team that has been ravaged by injuries over the past few years and just finished 5-12 in the basement of the AFC West. With Denver listed as one of FantasyPros' six easiest RB strength of schedules, Sean Payton will be confident in Perine's ability to lead the backfield until Williams is a full go.
The good news: Draft Sharks lists Williams as just a medium injury risk, pretty incredible considering they list 39 RBs as either high risks or very high risks. The confidence in his durability could be attributed to his quick recovery, successful rehab plan and adherence, or even biogenetical composition. But if they're not overly concerned and most of Fantasy Land is, we're ready to consider Williams one of the top sleepers of 2023.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Javonte Williams' 2023 fantasy ranking and ADP
Entering the season, SN Fantasy has Williams listed as the No. 27 RB in standard leagues and No. 23 in PPR formats. We consider him a solid RB2 or an extremely high-ceiling flex who could turn into a league-winner if Sean Payton relies on him like he used to rely on Alvin Kamara in New Orleans.
Even in a 50-50 split with Melvin Gordon III in Williams' rookie season, the young stud put up solid numbers: 903 rushing yards on just 203 carries (4.4 YPC), 7.3 yards per reception, 81.1-percent catch rate, 1,219 total yards, and seven TDs from scrimmage. That's from a 21-year-old with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock under center!
If Russell Wilson can bounce back from his atrocious 2022 season — a distinct possibility now that Denver replaced the incompetent Nathaniel Hackett with Payton — the sky could be the limit for Williams. We will temper our expectations with his workload, at least in the first couple weeks — but as soon as he's all systems go, he could be a massive x-factor for a ton of fantasy teams this fall.
FantasyPros has Dobbins' ADP at No. 61, right around the 25th-28th RB picked. In PPR formats, other RBs coming off the board around the same time as Williams include James Conner (RB24), D'Andre Swift (RB26), and Dalvin Cook (RB27). We like him better than all of those backs.
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Javonte Williams' fantasy outlook 2023
With the positive news on Williams' injury recovery and the likelihood that he won't miss any time — not to mention the positive regression we expect from Wilson and the Broncos under Payton — we're happy to draft the third-year back as a high-upside RB2 and very high-value flex. It doesn't hurt that PFF expects Denver to have a much-improved offensive line, moving it up 10 spots to No. 11 this preseason.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
In fact, at this rate, we actually view Williams as a bit of a sleeper, considering so many fantasy owners tend to stay away from any players who recently suffered an injury. A ranking in the RB25-RB30 range already seems like a value — if he dips any lower than that, he would be a must-draft value pick. We're talking about a potential league-winner in the sixth or seventh round, here!
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
As always, value is what should dictate decision-making. We will typically opt for high-floor guys in the first few rounds, then shoot for some more high-ceiling guys like Williams between Rounds 4 and 7. Everyone does their research for the early going, but the truly elite fantasy owners study up for round-by-round value from start to finish. Let your leaguemates cross Williams off their rankings sheet or 'X' him out of their queue — the more they fade him, the more value you get when you land him later than he should be going.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
Why do we love Williams' upside so much? His explosiveness and elusiveness. Even in a down year for Denver's offense before his Week 4 injury last season, Williams averaged 2.0 yards before contact and 2.3 yards after contact. Seven of his 47 rushing attempts went for 10-19 yards (14.9 percent), and his 116.3 PFF elusive rating ranked first among all RBs with at least 45 carries. He's nasty, and if he's as ready to rock as the Broncos have made it seem, he's going to be a fantasy game-changer.
