The Genesis Open features one of the most stacked fields -- and, thus, most stacks PGA DFS and betting fields -- that we have seen all season long and is the final event of the PGA Tour’s “West Coast Swing”. That means that these will be the last time we see any more poa greens for awhile after next week’s WGC-Mexico Championship.
The event is played at the classic Riviera Country Club, which is one of my personal favorite layouts that we’ll see all season. Riviera is long at 7,300 yards for a Par 71, with the Par 4s being particularly lengthy (the majority top 450 yards). The course is made even longer given the brutal kikuyu-grass rough that is incredibly sticky and difficult to get up and down out of.
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I hope you enjoyed the recent run of “easy” birdie-fest events that we’ve had so far this season because we almost certainly won’t be seeing easy scoring conditions this week. Riviera consistently ranks inside of the top 10 on tour in terms of difficulty, with winning scores typically hovering around -10.
Distance off the tee is important at virtually every modern day course, but is especially advantageous at a layout like Riviera with its combination of raw length and brutal rough that makes it difficult to find the green from off the fairway outside of 180 yards on approach shots.
This event tends be a little more a grind with the main scoring opportunities coming on the Par 5s, all of which are reachable in two shots and should set up plenty of eagle opportunities throughout the week. Because of this, I’m weighting scrambling and stroke gained: around the greens a little heavier than usual, with par being a good score on a lot of Riviera’s Par 4s and 3s.
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Key Stats
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Approach
Ball Striking
Scrambling
Par-5 Scoring
Genesis Open picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)
DFS Core Plays to Consider:
Top End: Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas (Cash), Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele (GPP)
Mid-Range: Cameron Smith, Sergio Garcia (GPP), Adam Hadwin (Cash), Jason Kokrak
Value Plays: Sung Kang (Cash), Keegan Bradley, J.T. Poston, Harold Varner, Scott Brown (GPP)
Genesis Open betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Rory McIlroy (16/1)
If you want to dip into the top end for an outright bet, I love the value on McIlroy at 16/1 on DraftKings Sportsbook. I was considering putting McIlroy in my DFS core plays, and he still very well may be in there if ownership projections have him coming in significantly lower than Dustin Johnson. McIlroy has been in excellent form to open the season with back to back top-five finshes at Tournament of Champions and Torrey Pines. Rory has a nice track record at this event with two top-20 finishes, and he has both the distance off the tee and the iron play necessary to contend at this event.
Marc Leishman (40/1)
I love the Australians this week, as most of them grew up playing on the same kikuyu grass type that we have here at Riviera this week. Leishman is my favorite of the 40/1 range and over and is a player that I always want to target at tracks that force players to pound driver off the tee. Leishman has missed the cut here in each of the last two seasons but has flashed some upside at this event with a T5 in 2016. Leishman enters this event off the heels of four top-five finishes and a win since October.
Cameron Smith (40/1)
I’m not big into betting on players who don’t have much of an established track record of winning, but I’m willing to ride Smith at 40/1 this week on an layout that will really showcase his elite short game. Smith has an excellent, albeit limited, track record at Riviera with T6 and T28 finishes here over the last two seasons. Smith snagged a top-10 finish at another poa grass course at Torrey Pines and won the Australian Open back in late November, which is played at a course that features a similarly thick kikuyu grass rough.
Sergio Garcia (45/1)
Garcia made headlines a few weeks ago with his on-course antics in Saudi Arabia, leading to his disqualification from the event. That incident -- and the fact that he is making his first start on the PGA Tour this season -- are helping discount him in both the DFS and betting markets. Odds of 45/1 on DraftKings Sportsbook make for great value on a player who’s ball-striking game is a nice fit for Riviera. Sergio has played great over the last few months with finishes of T3, T6, T9, and seconnd over his four starts prior to his adventures in Saudi Arabia.
Dart Throws: Aaron Wise (150/1), James Hahn (250/1), Jason Dufner (350/1)