After a couple of weeks of chaos, Week 4 in the NFL played out a little closer to expected, as teams and depth charts really began to solidify. That doesn’t mean we still can’t find promising outliers on the waiver wire, mind you. Last week, we were able to identify Taysom Hill (TE1), Geno Smith (QB8), and Xavier Legette (WR13) as sneaky, freely available pickups just before they had great weeks. And at least one of those players is probably still available in your league right now as we get set for Week 5.
Our weekly Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts.
More important, it also aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. We called JK Dobbins, Isaiah Likely, Jauan Jennings, and more before their breakout weeks, and more hits are on the way. Why exhaust your FAAB dollars or waiver priority to claim the next Smith or Legette when you can add him now for free?
MORE FROM FTN: Industry-leading fantasy analysis and NFL projections
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Watchlist: Week 6
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 5, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 6. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All these players are below 50 percent ownership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Week 6 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: QB
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns (23% owned in ESPN leagues/27% in Yahoo leagues)
Reason: Soft schedule, positive regression
Time Frame: Weeks 5-7
The era of Watson being a good quarterback is behind us, but there’s still some juice to be squeezed out of him for fantasy purposes. His numbers last week (176 yards, a touchdown, and an interception) don’t leap off the page at you, but that’s after an 82-yard touchdown to Amari Cooper got called back by penalty and after Cooper decided to play volleyball with a pass, bouncing it into the air and into the hands of a Raiders defender. With a little better luck, Watson is a top-10 QB in fantasy last week.
Cleveland’s also getting Nick Chubb (knee) back soon, which will relieve some pressure from the Cleveland passing game, and it has a soft schedule coming up. Washington and Philadelphia are both in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, while Cincinnati allows the 12th-most DVOA-adjusted fantasy points after factoring in for opposing teams’ quality. In short, Watson’s a QB2 with some QB1 upside against defenses that haven’t stopped much of anyone this season, making him a solid pick if you have some early bye weeks to get through.
Justin Fields, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (49%/61%)
Reason: Last chance…
Time Frame: Rest of season
This is likely the last week you’ll have any realistic chance of picking up Fields, who has somehow become one of the league’s most accurate passers and a deep ball threat in Pittsburgh. Fields is fourth in DYAR on deep passes despite having the fourth-lowest aDOT. He doesn’t sling it too often, but when he does, it’s been for huge gains. Only Joe Burrow and Geno Smith have completed a higher percentage of their air yards than Fields (66.0%), and he’s the sixth-most accurate quarterback in our charting.
None of that includes his rushing value, where he’s sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Russell Wilson (calf) may be ramping up his practice participation, but there’s no sign of Fields giving the starting job back. Plus, hey, maybe Davante Adams will be coming to town in the not-too-distant future. If Fields is still available in your league, pick him up now.
(FTN)
More Quarterback Options
- Daniel Jones (Volume, rest of season)
- Kirk Cousins (Positive Regression, rest of season)
- Andy Dalton (Volume, rest of season)
- Derek Carr (Volume, rest of season)
SN's WEEK 5 FANTASY ADVICE: Sleepers | Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em
Week 6 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: RB
Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens (28%/24%)
Reason: Receiving threat, elite handcuff
Time Frame: Rest of season
While Derrick Henry was grabbing all the headlines with his rushing performance, Hill was serving as the Ravens’ primary receiving threat in their blowout win over Buffalo. Hill added six receptions, 78 receiving yards, and a touchdown to his tally, and he now sits atop the DYAR leaderboards for receiving by a running back. His 67 receiving DYAR is just ahead of Austin Ekeler, while his 69.6-percent receiving DVOA ranks fourth.
While Henry is eating up so much of the Ravens’ ground game, Hill is going to remain a boom-or-bust option based on game script, but the latter doubled the targets of any other Ravens skill position player last week. There will be days when the gameplan calls for plenty of usage for Hill, even if Henry continues to hoover up the carries.
Antonio Gibson, RB, New England Patriots (21%/31%)
Reason: Possible new starter
Time Frame: Probably not too long
It’s deck chair shuffling time in New England, which means it’s time to go digging through the depth chart to see if there’s something — anything — they can bring out to at least pretend like they’re trying to spark offense rather than simply going through the motions. This week, that’s Gibson. Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled four times, most in the league, and Jarod Mayo said that that could be cause for benching Stevenson. That might be just talk to motivate Stevenson, but it could also lead to more immediate work for Gibson, who is fifth in receiving DVOA (60.4%) and would be in the top 15 in rushing DVOA (12.5%) if he had enough carries to qualify.
One note of caution, however – Gibson is the only running back in the league with fewer attempts per fumble than Stevenson since 2021. If the Patriots are turning to Gibson for more sure hands, his time in the spotlight will likely be short.
More Running Back Options
- Alexander Mattison (Increased workload, rest of season)
- Tank Bigbsy (Increased workload, rest of season)
- Roschon Johnson (Opponent schedule, Weeks 5-9)
SN's WEEK 5 FANTASY RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Week 6 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: WR
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants (40%/51%)
Reason: Injury Replacement; Checkdown Magnet
Time Frame: Rest of Season
Malik Nabers is still in concussion protocol after hitting his head late in the loss to the Cowboys last Thursday. If he can’t go, Robinson is the Giants’ WR1 against a Seahawks team that failed to force an incompletion last week. Even when Nabers returns, however, Robinson is shaping up to be a player whose fantasy value vastly overshadows his actual value. Robinson was targeted 14 times against Dallas, catching 11 of them for just 71 yards. That’s a terrible day in real life – a DVOA of just -38.1%, as these were mostly failed completions on third down throws short of the sticks – but was a top-20 day in PPR leagues. As long as defenses are triple-covering Nabers and Daniel Jones’ deep ball eludes him, Robinson will be there to hoover up ineffective volume.
Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers (26%/32%)
Reason: Rookie on the rise
Time Frame: Rest of season
We recommended you pick Legette up last week, and he responded with six catches on 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown (plus a drop that could have pushed his day even higher). We’re recommending him again, as he looks to be in great position to get even more work in the immediate future and solidify a spot in the starting lineup the rest of the way.
Adam Thielen (hamstring) is still on injured reserve and not coming back for at least three more weeks. Diontae Johnson is nursing ankle and groin injuries, and while he’s expected to play, it may be an excuse to lean more on Legette going forward. Another performance or two like he had this week, and Legette should replace Jonathan Mingo in the starting lineup even when everyone’s healthy.
More Wide Receiver Options
- Jerry Jeudy (Workload trends, rest of season)
- Romeo Doubs (Opponent schedule, Weeks 5-9)
- Darnell Mooney (Workload trends, rest of season)
Week 6 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: TE
Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders (30%/51%)
Reason: Role in high-powered offense
Time frame: Rest of season
Jayden Daniels is the real deal. With every week he continues to play lights-out football, the odds of this being a rookie mirage drops more and more, so you want a piece of Washington’s offense. Most pieces of Washington’s offense have already been doled out, but Ertz is still available in tons of leagues. Third in DVOA (30.3%) and sixth in DYAR (38) among tight ends, he’s been a more valuable real-life player than fantasy player so far. That may be about to change with Baltimore and Carolina coming up on the schedule.
Both have allowed at least 33-percent more production than average to tight ends, setting up opportunities for Ertz to be more than just the safety valve. He’s not going to be the big-play magnet that Daniels has been hitting throughout September, but as defenses adjust to try to take those deep balls away, Ertz will be there over the middle for solid PPR potential.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers (41%/47%)
Reason: Workload trends
Time frame: Rest of season
Kraft was a great waiver-wire pickup last week, as he ran 48 routes to Luke Musgrave’s 17, led the league in tight end targets, and had the second-highest target share in Green Bay on Jordan Love’s return. Love looked for Kraft more often than Jayden Reed or Romeo Doubs!
That sheer level of volume won’t be an every-week thing; the Packers won’t be furiously coming from behind every week this season. Nonetheless, it looks like Kraft, not Musgrave, is the tight end you want in Green Bay, and that increased workload trend might stick around for a few weeks with Christian Watson banged up.
More Tight End Options
- Cade Otton (Workload trends, rest of season)
- Tyler Conklin (Opponent schedule, Weeks 5-8)
- Taysom Hill (Injury stash, rest of season)
Week 6 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: Defense
For Week 5:
Commanders vs Browns (Deshaun Watson)
Seahawks vs Giants (Daniel Jones)
Panthers at Bears (Caleb Williams)
Giants at Seahawks (Geno Smith)
For Week 6:
Colts at Titans (Will Levis)
Jaguars at Bears (Caleb Williams)
Eagles vs Browns (Deshaun Watson)
Saints vs Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield)
For Week 7:
Lions at Vikings (Sam Darnold)
Eagles at Giants (Daniel Jones)
Falcons at Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield)
Bengals at Browns (Deshaun Watson)
