2019 QB Consistency Ratings: Jameis Winston a fantasy sleeper? Drew Brees a bust?

Bob Lung

2019 QB Consistency Ratings: Jameis Winston a fantasy sleeper? Drew Brees a bust? image

In fantasy football, consistency is an underrated aspect of drafting, compiling rankings/projections, identifying sleepers and busts, and making weekly start 'em/sit 'em decisions. If you've been playing fantasy sports for any length of time, you know how frustrating it can be for a player to lead your team in scoring one week only to put up hardly anything the next. Quarterbacks tend to be more consistent than other positions, but even QBs can vary from week-to-week, too.

Over at BigGuyFantasySports.com, we do our best to quantify "consistency" in our "Clutch Report". Our formula gives us a better idea of how consistently a player performs to an expected level. For example, in a 12-team PPR format, a running back must earn over 11 fantasy points each week to earn a "Clutch Game".

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It stands to reason that the more consistency a player provides, the more beneficial he is to a fantasy team. A highly consistent fantasy player will have a "Clutch Rating (or CR) of more than 70 percent. The best of the best will normally be around 80 percent or better.

Some players will not finish the season at the top of the overall leaderboard, but they can still be crucial to fantasy success thanks to a consistent weekly output. Boom-or-bust players have the opposite effect. They might win you a week but will let you down more often. Here’s a look at quarterbacks and their consistency projections heading into 2019, based on my Clutch Rating.

2019 STANDARD RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running backWide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200

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2019 Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings: QBs

1. QB1A Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs

2. QB1B Andrew Luck, Colts

3. QB1B Deshaun Watson, Texans

4. QB1B Aaron Rodgers, Packers

5. QB1B Matt Ryan, Falcons

6. QB1B Baker Mayfield, Browns

7. QB1B Carson Wentz, Eagles

8. QB1B Russell Wilson, Seahawks

9. QB1B Cam Newton, Panthers

10. QB1B Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

11. QB1B Jameis Winston, Buccaneers

12. QB1B Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

FANTASY SLEEPERS: 
8 QBs | 14 RBs | 11 WRs | 11 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team 

A ranking of QB1A means I expect a player to earn an 80 percent or higher Clutch Rate in 2019. Patrick Mahomes II is the only quarterback ranked at that level. The remaining 11 quarterbacks are all ranked as QB1B. This means I expect them to exceed 70 percent in Clutch Rate. Andrew Luck, DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers all have to potential to exceed 80 percent in 2019, but it's more likely they're around 75 percent. The key is where they fall in your draft. If you can get any of those three after Round 5, do it. If they go before that, wait and grab one of the other seven quarterbacks.

A couple of these quarterbacks aren't being properly valued, so here's a look at what their early ADPs are so you can either target or avoid them.

2019 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back Wide receiver Tight end | Top 200

Undervalued: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers

Winston is finally healthy and has been suspension-free of late. His overall consistency in 2018 was 64 percent. However, he went five for six (83 percent) to finish out the year, and with the addition of Bruce Arians as Tampa Bay's head coach and offensive mastermind, I’m expecting Winston to reach the 70 percent level in 2019. Winston’s currently being drafted in the QB15 range as opposed to my ranking of No. 11. If you factor in how bad Tampa Bay’s defense is, you see a path to Winston scoring a lot of fantasy points every week. 

MORE CONSISTENCY RATINGS:
Running backWide receiver | Tight end

Overvalued: Drew Brees, Saints

Brees will be a shoe-in Hall of Famer. However, his days of being a consistent fantasy quarterback are over. The past two seasons, Brees has hovered around the 50 percent consistency rating. Last year was his worst, as he ranked eighth in total points but had a 47-percent consistency rating. That means he didn’t even have a Clutch Game in half of his outings -- a tough mark to deal with from your starting quarterback. Let someone else draft Brees.

MORE: Consistency reports at Big Guy Fantasy Sports

If you want more consistency from your draft prep, go to Amazon and pick up the award-winning 2019 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide. You can also follow me on Twitter @bob_lung.

Don’t miss out on the 2019 Midwest Fantasy Football Expo on Sunday, August 18, 2019 in Canton, Ohio! Go to www.midwestffexpo.com for tickets!

Bob Lung

Bob Lung Photo

Bob Lung is a fantasy sports contributor for The Sporting News.