Finding 2019 fantasy football sleepers, busts with RB consistency rankings

Bob Lung

Finding 2019 fantasy football sleepers, busts with RB consistency rankings image

If you asked fantasy football owners if they'd rather have a running back who scores 25 points one week and five the next or one who scores 15 every week, the vast majority would choose the latter option. Consistency is what it's all about in fantasy, and if you can somehow incorporate it into your preseason RB rankings, sleepers and busts, then it's a valuable tool for your 2019 draft cheat sheet. 

Everyone’s familiar with the boom-or-bust running back who breaks an 80-yard touchdown one week yet can’t get past the line of scrimmage the next. That’s exactly the player that gives you a high point total for the season but not a high win total (and leads to statements like "I scored the third-most points in my league and missed the playoffs!"). Sure, there's some bad luck going on there, but that's bound to happen in a game with some many uncontrollable variables (injuries, weather, etc.) However, nothing is stopping you from trying to control your fantasy team’s consistency. 

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2019 Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Over at BigGuyFantasySports.com, our Clutch Report calculates seeks to determine how consistent a player is. Our exclusive formula works on a principle like this: In a 12-team PPR league, a running back needs to score over 11 fantasy points each week to earn a "Clutch Game". A highly consistent runner will have a Clutch Rating of more than 70 percent, and the elite backs can push another 10 to 20 percentage points above that.

That brings us to the top RBs who we all know are going to be consistent and others who might finish just outside the top overall scorers but did their part each and every week toward winning your matchup.

FANTASY SLEEPERS: 
8 QBs | 14 RBs | 11 WRs | 11 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team

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Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings: RBs

1. RB1A Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys

2. RB1A Saquon Barkley, Giants

3. RB1A Christian McCaffrey, Panthers

4. RB1A Alvin Kamara, Saints

5. RB1B David Johnson, Cardinals

6. RB1B Le'Veon Bell, Jets

7. RB1B James Conner, Steelers

8. RB1B Melvin Gordon, Chargers

9. RB1B Todd Gurley, Rams

10. RB1B Joe Mixon, Bengals

11. RB1B Dalvin Cook, Vikings

12. RB1B Devonta Freeman, Falcons

13. RB2A Kerryon Johnson, Lions

14. RB2A Mark Ingram, Ravens

15. RB2A Derrick Henry, Titans

16. RB2A Nick Chubb, Browns

17. RB2A Marlon Mack, Colts

18. RB2B Damien Williams, Chiefs

19. RB2B Aaron Jones, Packers

20. RB2B Chris Carson, Seahawks

21. RB2B Sony Michel, Patriots

22. RB2B Kenyan Drake, Dolphins

23. RB2B Josh Jacobs, Raiders

24. RB2B Lamar Miller, Texans

2019 STANDARD RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running backWide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200

If a player is labeled "RB1A", then I him  to finish with a Clutch Rate of 80 percent or better in 2019. Only Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara have that distinction. Eight RBs fall into the "RB1B" category, which means I expect them to exceed 70 percent. High-ranked guys such as David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are expected to have a CR higher than 70, but getting to 80 will be difficult. The lower-ranked backs certainly could exceed the 70-percent CR, but they're obviously more volatile.

DRAFT STRATEGY AND RANKINGS TIERS: 
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST

The "RB2A" backs consist of Kerryon Johnson, Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry, Nick Cubb and Marlon Mack. All have question marks (injuries, playing time, etc.), but all also have the proven talent that gives me confidence they can reach between 65-70 percent CR this season. Many fantasy sites love Damien Williams, but I’m very concerned about Carlos Hyde being picked up in the offseason by the Chiefs. They could be sharing carries by midseason. His second- or third-round ADP is too rich for my blood.

MORE CONSISTENCY RATINGS:
Quarterback | Wide receiver | Tight end

Here a couple of running backs who appear to be undervalued/overvalued based on their current ADPs, including the aforementioned Williams.

Undervalued: Chris Carson, Seahawks

Carson quietly ended the 2018 season ranked 15th in total points in only 14 games. His consistency was 71 percent (which ranked him 12th in consistency), and he also ranks 12th in expected consistency. The Seahawks traded away Mike Davis, leaving Carson to compete with an underwhelming Rashaad Penny. Yet Carson’s current ADP is 26th among RBs, which gives him a fifth-round grade. In two of the four games in which Carson didn’t earn a Clutch Game, Carson received fewer than eight touches in two. In summary, when Carson gets the touches, he’s clutch, and at this point, he is undervalued in most fantasy drafts.

2019 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back Wide receiver Tight end | Top 200

Overvalued: Damien Williams, Chiefs

Please stop saying that Williams is a top-15 pick for fantasy this year. He played 32 snaps before Kareem Hunt's Week 13 last season. Yes, he did very well from that point on, but he had the freshest legs in the NFL at the time on a team whose offense was red hot. If he was really that good, do you think the Chiefs would have signed Carlos Hyde? Nope. Williams is a talented journeyman. He will lose his job to Hyde sooner than later. Pass on Williams and grab Hyde about seven rounds later this year. You’ll thank me.

MORE: Consistency reports at Big Guy Fantasy Sports

If you want more consistency from your draft prep, go to Amazon and pick up the award-winning 2019 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide. You can also follow me on Twitter @bob_lung.

Don’t miss out on the 2019 Midwest Fantasy Football Expo on Sunday, August 18, 2019 in Canton, Ohio! Go to www.midwestffexpo.com for tickets!

Bob Lung

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Bob Lung is a fantasy sports contributor for The Sporting News.