For the most part, average draft position (ADP) in fantasy football starts to solidify post-free agency, with the NFL Draft triggering ripple effects here and there. Even though we know there will be changes to rankings throughout the preseason, fantasy owners can start to update their cheat sheets and plan for their drafts.
The relative ADP calm has taken place yet again this offseason, but as always exceptions remain. Here, I'll highlight players at a each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since March, using MFL10 PPR data via the RotoViz best-ball app as the most telling and fluid representation of ADP trends.
FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: QB | RB | WR | TE
Fantasy football QB ADP: Where are Andrew Luck and Tom Brady being drafted?
Aaron Rodgers surged to 56th overall and bumped Luck out of the QB2 spot. Luck held QB2 for March-April at 63rd overall, between Cam Newton at 52 and Rodgers at 64. A sample from the final two weeks of May shows Rodgers and Newton taking seven- and nine-spot jumps, respectively, while Luck fell to 70th overall. Luck is now regularly available at the Round 6/7-turn of 12-team best-ball leagues. This after an average pick of 22nd and maximum draft position of 42nd in 2015.
Tom Brady's appeal process seems to have dropped his stock a few spots outside the top 100 overall ADP after lingering in the mid-90s earlier this offseason. Picking him brings with it the burden of having to monitor updates on Deflategate, which is unfortunate since we all have a finite amount of time on this Earth.
Fantasy football RB ADP: Is Ezekiel Elliott worth a first-round pick?
Yup, landing spot was pretty important for Elliott. The Cowboys' offensive line returns all five starters and possesses the best personnel in the league. The lack of emotional baggage for fantasy owners likely also factors into Elliott's fast-rising price. Jeremy Hill has dropped six rounds from last year, while both Jamaal Charles and CJ Anderson plummeted from their first-round days of August.
Ezekiel Elliott zooming past RBs who burned ppl, each R1 or on 1-2 bend in 2015 | Via @RotoViz best-ball ADP app pic.twitter.com/UvcMBsq1Rm
— Thomas Emerick (@ThomasEmerick) June 1, 2016
FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: QB | RB | WR | TE
Fantasy football WR ADP: Sammy Watkins losing value fast because of injury
A broken foot that required surgery in April has in large part dropped Watkins' draft price, at least while uncertainty of his return status remains in play. Mentioning that he could miss all of training camp won't reverse that ADP trend, which has seen Watkins' April ADP of 18th overall drop to 28th when sampling the past week. Watkins has entered the Golden Tate range of ADP, and Doug Baldwin has also trended in that direction over the past two months. Watkins stands a mile ahead in athleticism, as Tate and Baldwin aren't typical WR1s. The latter two ostensibly get their first chances to produce in an established WR1 role from the gate.
WRs set to lead target share for good Os in 2016, ADP in flux | Via @RotoViz best-ball app https://t.co/Ai4qqO99nz pic.twitter.com/LegFPAJs9U
— Thomas Emerick (@ThomasEmerick) June 1, 2016
Fantasy football TE ADP: Are Tyler Eifert's injury issues making him a sleeper?
Eifert's recent surgery and potential for missed games has coincided with a sharp ADP drop. The Bengals' personnel losses in the receiving game could lead them to a more run-heavy, QB-under-center power attack akin to their approach prior to 2015. This would shrink the receiving pie but still establish Eifert as the No. 2 receiving threat in Cincy and retain his role as a primary red-zone target. The Bengals also might just trust Andy Dalton more after last season. Now, Eifert's going at 63rd overall based on sampling the past week compared to 53rd overall in the first two weeks of May.