Rookies are the toughest players to evaluate when putting together fantasy football rankings and draft strategy, regardless of whether you're in a redraft league or a keeper/dynasty league.
Fortunately, we're here to help you sort the sleepers from the busts and find the best first-year investments for the short-term and the long haul.
2016 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Note: Plenty of weight has been given to immediate opportunity when putting together these rankings, but they're more geared for those in dynasty and keeper formats.
Fantasy football rankings, sleepers: Rookie running backs
Ezekiel Elliott was the prize of the 2016 draft class, and he’s the only rookie running back assured of a starting job. Entering one of the best situations for a first-year runner in recent memory, he’s also the best rookie prospect in dynasty drafts.
But Elliott isn’t alone in having multi-season value as a rookie. Mid-round runners like Devontae Booker, DeAndre Washington and C.J. Prosise could help their new teams, along with fantasy owners, early in their respective NFL careers.
1. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys. Just a year removed from DeMarco Murray’s 1,845-yard season, the 2015 Cowboys running game struggled mightily to take advantage of one of the league’s best offensive lines. Elliott, the first back drafted in the top five since Trent Richardson in '11, was selected to not only seize the Cowboys starting job, but to also quickly emerge as the team’s offensive centerpiece moving forward.
With elite acceleration and balance as a between-the-tackles runner, Elliott should grow into one of the NFL’s best running backs thanks to the Cowboys supporting cast. It may be ambitious to think Elliott can transition from college standout to a top-five fantasy running back, but he steps into a tailor-made opportunity.
2016 Projection: 1,050 rushing yards, 11 TDs, 20 rec. 160 receiving yards
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2. Devontae Booker, Broncos. Even though he was the seventh running back selected and a fourth-round pick, Booker offers everything you could hope for in a long-term fantasy running back. He joins a Broncos depth chart that has been far from stable the past two years, and neither C.J. Anderson nor Ronnie Hillman have cemented themselves as quality starters.
Additionally, Booker has had a professional attitude throughout his college career, offers NFL-ready pass-catching and pass-blocking ability, and runs with patience and decisiveness both inside and outside the tackle box. He’ll never be a sexy option, but he could quickly emerge as Denver’s best RB in 2016 and may not let the job go for a few years.
2016 Projection: 750 rushing yards 6 TDs; 30 rec, 270 receiving yards
3. Derrick Henry, Titans. With DeMarco Murray firmly ahead of him on the depth chart, Henry isn’t worth a standard league starting spot unless Murray goes down with an injury or proves woefully ineffective. And while Murray clearly isn’t the Titans' long-term option, Tennessee will likely let Henry earn the job rather than hand it to him in 2017.
Even with the opportunity, Henry may struggle early on to fit next to Marcus Mariota. Mariota thrives in more spread concepts and keeping defenses off-balance in formations and package plays. Henry thrives on designed runs, a continuous workload, and power running. If Tennessee can’t figure out a way to mesh the two without limiting Mariota’s offensive upside, Henry may never hit his second-round ceiling.
2016 Projection: 500 rushing yards, 7 TDs; 15 rec., 100 receiving yards
4. DeAndre Washington, Raiders. The Raiders had DeAndre Washington not only higher on their draft board than most other teams, but they also had him pegged as a player they did not want to leave the draft without. Comparing favorably in both combine numbers and college production to Giovani Bernard, the Raiders likely feel Washington can fill that role quickly in the NFL, and potentially supplant Latavius Murray in the near future.
While it’s asking a lot for a 5-8 running back to shoulder the load for a Raiders team that will continue to rely on interior running success, the opportunity and internal support is on Washington’s side. At the very least, he’s the favorite to be the pass-catching option at running back for the next few years, giving him plenty of PPR upside.
2016 Projection: 450 rush yards, 4 rush TDs; 35 rec., 300 rec. yards, 2 rec. TDs
5. C.J. Prosise, Seahawks. Though I was partial to now-Seahawks teammate Alex Collins during the 2016 draft process, Prosise can offer more versatility to a running back unit in need of as much help as it can get. While Thomas Rawls looked the part of a quality Marshawn Lynch replacement, his injury history doesn’t bode well for his season-long upside, and Christine Michael has never been dependable.
Prosise, a former college receiver, can offer immediate positional versatility and pass-catching reps to limit Rawls touches early and throughout the regular season. While he may never be a consistent feature running back, his use as a weapon in the increasingly creative Seahawks offense could make him a fixture for the near future.
2016 Projection: 400 rush yards, 3 rush TDs; 35 rec., 300 rec. yards, 2 rec. TDs
6. Kenneth Dixon, Ravens. Baltimore starts Justin Forsett, has drafted a running back in the middle rounds in each of the past three season,s and added Terrance West in the offseason. Dixon clearly has ample competition for the starting gig, but he may have the most complete game of any running back on the roster.
With perimeter upside, tremendous stop-start ability, and flashes of pass-catching potential, he could prove a quality rotational option until he eventually gets a chance to seize the starting job. It may take until 2017 to see if he or Buck Allen (or another running back) takes over as the Ravens lead back.
2016 Projection: 300 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 25 rec., 280 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD
7. Paul Perkins, Giants. While Perkins has some work to do over the next season or two to earn major carries in the Giants offense, his main opportunity in the short-term is to take third-down and pass-catching opportunities away from Shane Vereen.
Vereen may be in his last season as a Giant, and Rashad Jennings hasn’t proven to be a reliable option the past two years and is already on the wrong side of 30. Perkins may not get a ton of chances as a rookie, but by 2017, he could be the team’s best running back option.
2016 Projection: 250 rush yards, 0 rush TDs; 20 rec yards, 250 rec yards 0 rec TDs
2016 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
8. Tyler Ervin, Texans. Houston signed Lamar Miller in the offseason, giving it a younger replacement for the oft-injured Arian Foster and putting Miller hopefully in a situation where he can be trusted to shoulder the offensive load.
That said, keeping Miller fresh and under 25 touches as often as possible would be ideal for a Texans team all too familiar with running back injuries. Enter Ervin, who was arguably the best pass-catching back in this year's draft class, to take the load off Miller in third-down situations and to offer a remarkably quick, change-of-pace running back option who has a similar running style to Miller. Though he’ll be a spell and third-down runner, he could grow into a reliable fantasy role in deeper leagues and would certainly benefit greatly should Miller get injured for a few weeks.
2016 Projection: 300 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 30 rec., 300 rec yards
9. Kenyan Drake, Dolphins. A surprising pick for a Dolphins team in desperate need of reliable options at running back, Drake is a luxury runner with great long-speed and big-play ability. However, he doesn’t offer much immediate value to a Dolphins unit that is relying on injury-prone running backs like Arian Foster and Jay Ajayi to carry the load. If Ajayi and/or Foster can stay healthy and keep Drake in a situational role, Drake can thrive in 10-15 plays a game for the Dolphins.
2016 Projection: 250 rush yards, 1 rush TD; 30 rec., 400 rec yards, 2 rec TDs; 1 return TD
10. Kelvin Taylor, 49ers. Son of former Jaguars running back Fred Taylor, Kelvin doesn’t have great athletic upside but does offer reliable interior running and the power to work through interior tacklers well enough to emerge as a quality rotational option. With Carlos Hyde’s injury history, Taylor may be called into action in his rookie campaign if he can earn the RB2 spot in training camp.
SLEEPERS: 12 WRs | 7 QBs | 14 RBs | 9 TEs | D/STs | One from each team
Fantasy football rankings, sleepers: Rookie wide receivers
The 2016 receiver class included four first-round receivers and as many as seven immediate contributors to their new NFL offenses, which is uncharacteristic for first-year pass-catchers.
Corey Coleman, the first of the class drafted, enters a Browns offense desperate for playmakers, but he’s not the only receiver who could make an immediate splash. With so many rookies entering situations where they can immediately prove themselves, the 2016 class could prove to be one of the deepest groups in recent memory in terms of fantasy-worthy options.
1. Corey Coleman, Browns. After three years of refusing to draft receivers in the first three rounds, the new Browns regime finally bucked that strategy and made Coleman their first-round pick. Coleman was remarkably productive in his final season at Baylor, showing off natural pass-catching instincts vertically and in the red zone, as well as tremendous deep speed and run-after-the-catch upside. Opportunity and talent are in Coleman’s favor, but a still-developing offense and his own need for route development may make him a better long-term, rather than short-term, fantasy option.
2016 Prediction: 70 rec, 950 yards, 5 TDs
2. Laquon Treadwell, Vikings. The Vikings have a lackluster receiving corps outside of 2015’s breakout performer Stefon Diggs, so Minnesota will be hoping Treadwell can adapt quickly to the NFL game. His body type, finishing ability away from his frame, and his in-traffic physicality all should quickly make him a favorite for Teddy Bridgewater. By season’s end, he may end up taking the No. 1 spot from Diggs.
2016 Prediction: 60 rec, 900 yards, 6 TDs
3. Michael Thomas, Saints. On the field, Thomas was firmly among the most talented in the 2016 receiver class, but question marks surrounding his ability to pick up the Ohio State playbook gave teams pause -- and for good reason. Thomas is wowing in camp thus far, but if those same playbook concerns continue, it may be a full season before Thomas is ready to be a consistent starting option with the Saints. When he’s ready, he could quickly emerge as the best receiver in the class.
2016 Prediction: 45 rec, 700 yards, 6 TDs
4. Josh Doctson, Redskins. With Jordan Reed’s emergence, running back Chris Thompson’s value as a pass-catcher, and DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside, Doctson will likely be good for only a handful of targets a game in 2016. But Garcon and Jackson are likely playing their last seasons in Washington, and Doctson will have every opportunity to grow into Kirk Cousins’s No. 1 target for the future.
2016 Prediction: 40 rec, 600 yards, 5 TDs
5. Sterling Shepard, Giants. While he’s in theory battling with Victor Cruz for targets in 2016, Shepard shouldn’t have much competition against the routinely injured Cruz. Shepard, the team’s second-round pick, was drafted as the immediate No. 2 to Odell Beckham Jr., and his developed route running and decisive technique as a pass-catcher should make him a reliable run-after-catch option for Eli Manning early in his rookie career. His upside may be a bit capped, but he’ll be a quality starter for 2016 and beyond.
2016 Prediction: 50 rec, 800 yards, 4 TDs
6. Tyler Boyd, Bengals. After losing Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones in free agency, the Bengals are desperately hoping one of their training camp receivers can emerge as a quality second option opposite A.J. Green. Boyd, the team’s second-round pick, is the favorite to be that starter at some point early in his rookie season. His upside isn’t all that special, but the ability to produce he showed in college could quickly make him a key part of the Bengals offense.
2016 Prediction: 45 rec, 750 yards, 4 TDs
7. Malcolm Mitchell, Patriots. Mitchell thankfully evaded a major arm injury earlier in camp, but injury fears will likely continue to plague him in his NFL career. Still, his awesome away-from-frame catching ability and natural athletic upside could quickly turn him into the steal of the draft at the receiver position. And while he’ll be behind Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola for targets, he’ll likely be the best outside receiver New England has on the roster this year and should see plenty of looks in three-wide sets.
2016 Prediction: 40 rec, 550 yards, 3 TDs
2016 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
8. Trevor Davis, Packers. The Packers have drafted and hyped up younger receivers like Ty Montgomery, Jared Abbrederis and everyone’s favorite Jeff Janis in the past, but Davis, who flew under the radar as Jared Goff’s version of Emmanuel Sanders a year ago, quietly has the most talent of any receiver on the roster after Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. By 2017, I’d fully expect him to be the third option in the offense, and he might start to get those type of targets by season’s end.
2016 Prediction: 25 rec, 400 yards, 1 TD
9. Jordan Payton, Browns. Based purely off of opportunity, Payton could be a starting NFL receiver and a viable 2016 fantasy spot-starter. After Coleman and the suspension-plagued Josh Gordon, the Browns don’t have NFL-ready starters at receiver, and Payton is the most NFL-ready in terms of body positioning and short/mid-range route running of the team’s rookies. He likely will never be a productive long-term option, but it’s hard to ignore his opportunity.
2016 Prediction: 35 rec, 450 yards, 3 TDs
10. Will Fuller, Texans. I’m not overly bullish on the Texans first-round pick, as Fuller is purely a short-area and vertical threat at this point in his career. His upside is DeSean Jackson, but if he can’t master vertical separation in that way, his overall dynamic upside is a bit capped. Plus, against more physical cornerbacks in college, such as Ravens rookie Tavon Young, he tended to struggle for separation. Of the first-round rookie receivers, he’s the most likely to bust despite his golden opportunity.
2016 Prediction: 30 rec, 550 yards, 3 TDs
11. Braxton Miller, Texans. While Fuller might be the better short-term play for a Texans team in need of a No. 2 option opposite DeAndre Hopkins, I believe, in time, Miller will emerge as a Randall Cobb-esque talent for the Texans offense. Quarterback Brock Osweiler works best with talent in the seams, and once Miller develops the nuances of the position, he should emerge as a key offensive piece for the future.
12. Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs. Robinson offers awesome talent but never lived up to his hype at Florida. The Chiefs don’t have any clear-cut, sexy options to start opposite Jeremy Maclin for the future, and they're hoping one of their eight young receivers can fill that role. Robinson looks the part of a future NFL starter, and if he can buy into the Chiefs offense and capitalize on his preseason flashes, he could assume that job into the future.
13. Pharoh Cooper, Rams. Cooper was a do-it-all option at South Carolina who thrived in the slot. Though his athletic testing scores were lackluster, Cooper offered production and plus open-field skills at the college level. He’ll likely be focused only as a slot weapon, and Jared Goff and the Rams offense will be hoping he can seize a starting opportunity early in his career. Otherwise, they may move on quickly.
14. Leonte Carroo, Dolphins. The Dolphins have a crowded receiving corps, yet they still took Carroo (and Jakeem Grant) early in the draft to add to Ryan Tannehill’s options. Carroo offers NFL-ready separation on mid-field routes and plucks the ball in-air better than most sub-6-2 receivers. For the future, the Dolphins big-three at the position may be DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry and Carroo, which is promising if Adam Gase’s offense succeeds the way it did in Denver and Chicago.
15. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs. Hill has major character concerns after a troubled past at Oklahoma State and continuing off-field woes since. He was a surprising draft pick considering his background. Still, his elite speed and return potential -- and a messy Chiefs receiver situation -- could give him opportunities in 2016 and into the future. Of course, his career could be cut short at any time with an off-field issue.
DRAFT STRATEGY AND TIERS:
Quarterbacks | Wide receivers | Tight ends | D/STs | PPR leagues
Fantasy football rankings, sleepers: Rookie quarterbacks
Generally, rookie quarterbacks don’t make for great fantasy options, but they can be wise investments for those in keeper leagues. In recent years, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota all proved to be good early-Dynasty options. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the same can be said for the 2016 draft class.
Between Jared Goff’s lackluster supporting cast, Carson Wentz’s stiff competition, Paxton Lynch’s perceived “project” status, and an overall mediocre quarterback class, 2016 may be the year to pass on the early quarterback options.
1. Jared Goff, Rams. While I’m not overly bullish on his upside or his current passing-game supporting cast, Goff will have the best chance to play early. He’ll need to beat out Case Keenum, which shouldn’t be an issue, before he inherits a team that feels as if it cannot only reach its ever-consistent eight wins, but also reach the playoffs.
Goff’s college transition will be a big focus in his first year, as he’ll need to quickly shift from the Cal's "Air Raid" system and grow into more of a game manager role with Todd Gurley as the face of the Rams offense. His first season won’t be overly sexy, but fantasy owners will at least know where they stand, for better or for worse.
2. Paxton Lynch, Broncos. Lynch was my top-rated quarterback this year, but he's unlikely to win the starting job to start the season. He’ll be groomed to take over a well-balanced offense with ample talent at receiver, experience across the offensive line and coaching staff, and a Super Bowl-winning defense.
The rookie thoroughly impressed in his preseason debut, and reports from training camp are that neither Mark Sanchez nor Trevor Siemian have done enough to win the job outright. The narrative that Lynch is a “project” quarterback was far overblown, and it won’t be a surprise when the strong-armed, mobile and highly instinctive passer is leading the Broncos to a playoff berth en route to a long career at the helm of Denver’s offense.
3. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles. As someone who wasn’t overly optimistic on the Eagles mega-move to second overall to secure the FCS quarterback, I was pleasantly surprised by Wentz’s NFL debut against the Bucs in the team’s first preseason game. He appeared ahead of schedule on escaping pocket pressure when possible, adjusting from low to high reads, and possessing overall composure. It's a shame he suffered a rib injury that will force him to miss the next couple weeks.
While he’ll need to surpass recently extended Sam Bradford and 2016 offseason signee Chase Daniel to even get on the field, the Eagles will give Wentz every chance to win the job by next season at the latest. That said, and from a fantasy perspective, drafting Wentz means waiting at least a full year and likely part of two just before you see what you’ve got. The talent is there to be a high-level NFL quarterback, as his first performance showed, but the opportunity isn’t there yet, so expectations should be tempered.
4. Dak Prescott, Cowboys. The Cowboys fourth-rounder won’t be starting as long as Tony Romo’s healthy...which means it’s likely he’ll get some action in 2016. Hailing from an offense at Mississippi State that sourced the Tim Tebow-at-Florida playbook heavily, Prescott struggled in college when asked to work past his first read or rely on the passing game for a full drive.
He surpassed expectations in his first preseason game, but excitement should be tempered after a lackluster college career in terms of pro-style upside. Opportunity is there, and Prescott will have a tremendous supporting cast if and when he assumes the starting job, but expecting him to grow into a high-level quarterback is overly optimistic based on his college scouting report.
5. Cody Kessler, Browns. Of all the quarterbacks the Browns could have selected in the 2016 NFL Draft, Kessler wasn’t on most radars as a fit for the rebuilding franchise. The USC passer fits the measurables that the Browns analytic team felt were important in a quarterback, though his college film doesn’t suggest he's a future NFL starter.
Robert Griffin III has been named the starter in Cleveland, and if all goes well, Griffin will be the starter for the foreseeable future. But even if Kessler emerges at the top of the depth chart, an extremely young supporting cast and the transitioning offensive line don’t bode well for the quarterback who stems from a USC offense that offered a structured offense and thrived with a strong offensive line.
Others to Consider:
Christian Hackenberg, Jets. An aging Ryan Fitzpatrick on a team-friendly contract, Geno Smith’s constant discomfort, and Bryce Petty’s ineptitude in the NFL all point to Hackenberg eventually taking over the Jets offense.
Cardale Jones, Bills. Jones displayed highlight-reel upside during his Ohio State career, but with Tyrod Taylor's recently signed long-term deal, it seems like he’ll be in control of the Bills job for the foreseeable future
Kevin Hogan, Chiefs. Jostling for the backup job this season, Hogan has a path to be No. 2 behind Alex Smith. Current backup Aaron Murray is entering the last year of his guaranteed deal.
Jacoby Brissett, Patriots. Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting in Tom Brady’s stead at the beginning of this season, but the drafting of Brissett may hint that New England isn’t sold on Jimmy G being the long-term replacement for Brady.
Nate Sudfeld, Redskins. On one hand, I believe Sudfeld was the least deserving quarterback drafted in the 2016 draft; on the other, Washington hasn’t reached a deal with Kirk Cousins. If Cousins departs, it’ll be Sudfeld versus career backup Colt McCoy for the '17 job, at least among the incumbent choices.
Eric Galko is the owner and director of scouting at Optimum Scouting and OptimumScouting.com, as well as a Sporting News contributor. Follow him on Twitter: @OptimumScouting