How can the most important position on the field be an afterthought in fantasy?
The answer is when plenty of good options are widely available. That’s the situation with quarterbacks these days in fantasy football. It used to be that there were 10-12 legitimate starting options out there. This year, we could have over two-thirds of the league check in as worthy fantasy starters.
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A look at the top quarterbacks from last season bears this out. The top 12 does not include Tom Brady or Matt Ryan, who had down years as their receivers were decimated by injuries and inexperience. The top 12 also does not include Robert Griffin III, who may not have been fully recovered from knee surgery last year, or Aaron Rodgers, who played in just nine games, or Jay Cutler, who played in just 11 but would have been right there had he started all 16.
If we measure by fantasy points per game, the difference between the fourth-best quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, and the 16th, Colin Kaepernick, was a 3.5 fantasy points per game in standard leagues. Twenty quarterbacks averaged more than 18 fantasy points a game, and only three—Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Nick Foles—had 24 points per game or more.
That’s before we factor in any rookie quarterbacks, by the way. There may not be a player like Cam Newton, Andrew Luck or RG3 ready to be a clear starter, but a player like Johnny Manziel is probably going to get drafted on potential alone.
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There’s certainly an argument that it’s worth considering an elite quarterback early on, grabbing Manning if you think he can be anywhere close to his 2013 performance, plus Brees, Rodgers or, if you are a believer, Foles.
But beyond those guys? All the other quarterbacks available have enough pluses and minuses that the ones ranked fourth through 20th could finish in any order. With that much talent sitting out there, fantasy owners should prioritize depth at other positions.
STOCK WATCH
Up
1. Nick Foles, Eagles. After an incredible stretch in which he put up more than 20 fantasy points each game from Week Nine on, Foles is likely a lock for a top-five spot in fantasy drafts. DeSean Jackson may be gone, but coach Chip Kelly isn’t, lessening the risk that Foles is a one-hit wonder.
2. Peyton Manning, Broncos. No, Manning won’t do it again. But after outscoring the No. 2 quarterback (Drew Brees) by 84.3 points (more than five fantasy points per game), he’s got a little room for to spare for regression.
3. Philip Rivers, Chargers. Rivers looked done in 2013, but was revitalized in Mike McCoy’s offense and finished fourth among quarterbacks in fantasy points. There’s some risk of regression here though, especially given his age, so don’t spend heavily on Rivers come draft day.
Down
1. Tom Brady, Patriots. Fears over Brady’s lack of weapons before last season proved accurate as he stumbled to his worst fantasy season in years. Rob Gronkowski can’t be counted on going forward, but Julian Edelman and the development of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson gives some hope of a Brady bounce-back.
2. Matt Ryan, Falcons. Ryan wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t anywhere close to top-five status last year. Injuries to wideouts Julio Jones and Roddy White deprived him of weapons, and his stats suffered as a result. He won’t have retired tight end Tony Gonzalez anymore, but the return of Jones should make a world of difference.
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers. The near-consensus No. 1 quarterback going into 2013, Rodgers could be the No. 4 guy this year, depending on what your league mates think of Nick Foles. But their loss is your gain—Rodgers should easily return to the summit in 2014 and you could score him at a real bargain price.
BUST OR TRUST?
Andy Dalton, Bengals. Few would have pegged the “Red Rocket” as a top-five QB heading into 2013. But it was Dalton who finished third among quarterbacks in fantasy points scored, behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. It came on the heels of Dalton finishing 12th in 2012. The temptation is to say Dalton is a clear-cut fantasy starter at this point, but beware. He was extremely inconsistent last year—he had five games of 30-plus points and three games under 10 points. Overall, he had seven games with more than 20 points. We do like Hue Jackson as his offensive coordinator this season, but Dalton is far too streaky to invest heavily in. He’s the type of player who starts when you’ve avoided quarterback, rather than someone to spend an early pick on. Verdict: Bust.
WEAPONS UPGRADE
While we like to think the best quarterbacks can still be great regardless of the players around them, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan’s struggles last year show how difficult it can be to succeed without game-breaking talent for long stretches. With that in mind, here’s a look at some of the top upgrades some players have added since last season, either because of free agency or return from injury:
Andrew Luck
Gained: Reggie Wayne (back from injury), Hakeem Nicks
Lost: Darrius Heyward-Bey
Verdict: T.Y. Hilton and Wayne were formidable options, but Wayne missed much of the season with an ACL injury. He’ll be back for the Colts and Nicks is not too far removed from being a quality wideout. Luck should have a more reliable corps of receivers this season.
Robert Griffin III
Gained: DeSean Jackson
Lost: No one of importance.
Verdict: Griffin had a good receiver already in Pierre Garcon. Now he gets a gamebreaker in Jackson too. If tight end Jordan Reed can stay healthy, that’s a great trio of options. Throw in new coach Jay Gruden’s more pass-happy system and there’s a lot to like about RG3 this season.
Colin Kaepernick
Gained: Stevie Johnson, Michael Crabtree (injury)
Lost: No one of importance
Verdict: A full season of Crabtree was already a big get for Kaepernick. Throw in a solid second or third receiver in Stevie Johnson to go along with Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis and, suddenly, Kaepernick’s looking like he’s got plenty of tools to make fantasy owners happy.
Cam Newton
Gained: Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery
Lost: Steve Smith
Verdict: First-round wide receiver Benjamin is a big (6-5) project who could be a red-zone threat. Newton still has tight end Greg Olsen, his top receiving threat, but it certainly looks like the Panthers took a major downgrade here. Newton’s rushing ability could help soften the fantasy blow, however.