With the 2023 NFL regular season on the horizon, fantasy football owners will again look to answer an age-old question: When should you draft a quarterback? The answer(s) to this question are subjective, as any strategy can work if you hit on the right player. Some fantasy owners opt to draft a top-tier QB like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts within the first few rounds. Others look further down the rankings to find a sleeper or breakout pick that can provide better value. Heading into 2023, the outlook for whatever option you prefer remains roughly the same.
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You don't necessarily need to jump on a QB early in order to get a good starter, but obviously, guys like Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow have higher floors and ceilings. However, even if you're the last owner in your league to draft a starter, you can wind up with Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, or Aaron Rodgers. Even guys like Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, and Jared Goff have QB1 upside at bargain-basement prices.
It’s all about value. How much potential production are you losing by going from a top-tier QB to a third-tier QB? Can you make up for that loss by getting better players at other positions?
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Heading into this season, the top quarterback tier is loaded. However, if you pass on those three standout quarterbacks, there are plenty of great options in Tier 2 or Tier 3 that can elevate your team and potentially be top-five signal-callers.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
Let’s break down the different strategies for drafting a QB and which passers will be available at various points in your draft.
Fantasy QB Tiers 2023: Who are the best fantasy football quarterbacks?
Rankings and tiers based on standard, four-point passing TD leagues
QB TIER 1
1 Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
2 Jalen Hurts, Eagles
3 Josh Allen, Bills
Our first tier is loaded with quarterbacks who can put up fantasy points in bunches, and all can be a threat on the ground with their legs. Out of these three players, two players ran for at least 700 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground last season. However, Mahomes was the only quarterback who threw for over 5,000 yards and 40 TDs in 2022.
That said, Allen surprisingly has the highest early ADP out of all the guys ranked in Tier 1 at 16, meaning he could be selected in the second round in a 12-team league. However, Mahomes is right behind Allen with an ADP of 17 in standard leagues, according to Fantasy Pros. Mahomes and Allen could also be selected at the end of the first round, depending on how your draft falls, but that's a bit rich when you factor in the importance of the elite RB, WRs, and Travis Kelce.
Mahomes proved last season that he can still be one of the best fantasy QBs in the league despite not having Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs' WR corps will look different without JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman heading into this season, but that shouldn’t stop Mahomes from throwing for at least 40 touchdowns and over 4,5000 yards.
Meanwhile, Allen’s 2022 season was similar to what he did in '21. The Madden '24 cover athlete completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 4,283 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He also ran for 762 yards and seven touchdowns, making it the second-straight year he had 700 rushing yards. If Allen can cut down on the RZ turnovers this season, he could outperform his fantasy production from '22 (24.7 fantasy points per game). With a solid array of weapons at his disposal, Allen should remain a top-three QB.
Hurts took his game to another level in 2022, propelling him to a top-five fantasy quarterback and leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl. Hurts completed 66.5 percent of his passes last season, a vast improvement from 2021 (61.3 percent). He also threw for a career-high 3,701 yards, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions. In addition to his improved passing numbers, Hurts was dominant on the ground with 760 yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns. His early ADP is 23, placing Hurts toward the back end of the second round in standard 12-team leagues. If Hurts continues to improve as a passer with his assortment of weapons at the skill positions, he could be due for another monster year in Philadelphia.
Opting for one of these QBs in the first two or three rounds potentially puts you behind the eight ball at either RB or WR, but it almost guarantees you a top-five producer at fantasy's highest-scoring position. If you trust your ability to find RB or WR value later in the draft, then go for it. You can't find a safer option than one of these three QBs, making them worth their high price tags.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Fantasy QB Tiers 2023: Second-tier quarterbacks
QB TIER 2
4 Joe Burrow, Bengals
5 Justin Herbert, Chargers
6 Justin Fields, Bears
For the second year in a row, Burrow stands a top Tier 2 but could easily be in Tier 1 at the end of the 2023 regular season. The same can be said for Herbert and Fields, who are uber-talented in their own ways and will be drafted early in fantasy drafts. Burrow has the highest ADP in his tier at 31, placing him in the middle of the third round in standard 12-team leagues. However, Fields (41) and Herbert (42) aren’t too far behind Burrow, which is tremendous news for owners that are thinking about stacking these QBs with their top WRs.
Burrow had another phenomenal season in Cincinnati, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,475 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while averaging 21.9 fantasy points per game. His numbers last season were eerily similar to what he did in '21 (20.5 FPPG), though he was sacked 10 fewer times. If Cincinnati can keep Burrow even cleaner in the pocket, he should have another big season and make a push toward Tier 1.
Herbert saw a significant drop-off in his touchdown passes last season, which affected his ranking heading into the 2023 season. He completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 4,739 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. This was a noticeable difference from '21, where Herbert threw for 5,014 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. Fantasy owners hope the addition of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator will get Herbert back to his '21 form. Last season, Herbert had eight games with two or more touchdown passes and averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game. He must reach that 20-point threshold to be considered a top-10, let alone a top-five, quarterback in fantasy football this season.
Finally, Fields is the newcomer to Tier 2 this year after being promoted from Tier 4 last year. The former Ohio State standout had a slow start to the '22 season but revolutionized Chicago’s offense and became one of the top fantasy QBs in the second half of the year. Fields threw for 2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, but more important, he added 1,143 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns, giving him a high floor every week. Fields had six games with 20 or more fantasy points and averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game.
He should be better this season with the addition of veteran wide receiver D.J. Moore, giving Chicago a bona fide No. 1 option in the passing game. For Fields to get the ball to Moore, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Chase Claypool, Chicago must be better at protecting the young quarterback. Fields was sacked 51 times last season, so if he gets more time, he could really take off.
Drafting one of these signal-callers as your QB1 puts you in a good position to compete at the position every week. By getting them a few rounds after the top-tier guys, you should have better RB/WR/TEs, so there's a good argument for targeting one of these players. The key is not to reach and nullify the theoretical value. If they get snapped up before you take one, that's OK. There are plenty of solid QBs in the next tier, too.
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Fantasy QB Draft Strategy: When should you draft a quarterback?
QB TIER 3
7 Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
8 Dak Prescott, Cowboys
9 Lamar Jackson, Ravens
10 Deshaun Watson, Browns
11 Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
The third tier consists of quarterbacks with big-time upside but also a few question marks. Watson might be the most interesting, as he finished in the top five in each of 2018, '19, and '20. He struggled in his six-game return last year, averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game. His early ADP heading into this season is 71, which is higher than Prescott and Tagovailoa. If Watson is available at the end of the sixth round, owners might be tempted to draft him, as he’ll have a full offseason/training camp in Kevin Stefanski’s offense. Watson also has an underrated corps of pass-catchers to throw to, and we know he can still run the ball, which he did a little bit last season (175 yards and a score). He offers a lot of bang for the buck if he's truly back.
Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa moved up from Tier 4 last season after their performances with their new head coaches. Lawrence played like the quarterback we saw at Clemson in his first year with Doug Pederson, completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game. He also showed the ability to be a factor in the ground game, adding 291 rushing yards and five touchdowns. We are confident that Lawrence will score close to 20 FPPG heading into his third season, as the Jags are adding Calvin Ridley to an already solid group of pass-catchers. It wouldn't be a shock to see Lawrence top Burrow or Herbert, so he's a great early-middle-round target.
Tagovailoa should score more than his 18.4 FPPG in '22 if he can stay healthy. The former Alabama standout dealt with numerous concussions last season, jeopardizing his football career. Tagovailoa has a stellar receiver duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who combined for 15 receiving touchdowns and over 1,000 receiving yards each. With their ability to get yards after the catch, Tagovailoa could be in line for a career year and outplay his current ADP.
Lastly, Jackson and Prescott were in Tier 2 heading into last season, but thanks to injury and inconsistent play, they’ve been bumped to Tier 3. Jackson’s early ADP is 38, according to Fantasy Pros, putting him at the top of the fourth round in a standard 12-team league. The former MVP played just 12 games due to a knee injury in '22 (after playing just 12 games in '21), which hurt him from a fantasy perspective as he averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game. However, with a revamped offense, Jackson could propel himself back up to Tier 2. The Ravens added wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers to bolster their passing offense. Baltimore also hired former University of Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken to be their OC in the offseason, which means we should see a lot more passing opportunities from Jackson. It all comes down to health for Jackson, making him a somewhat risky boom-or-bust candidate.
Finally, Prescott’s issues revolved around him taking care of the ball last season. The veteran quarterback completed 66.2 percent of his passes for 2,860 yards, 23 touchdowns, and a career-high 15 interceptions. Despite missing five games because of a thumb injury, he still had three games with 20 fantasy points or more. Heading into this season, the Cowboys will be looking for Prescott to limit the turnovers and increase the touchdowns after trading for veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks to pair with CeeDee Lamb.
Ultimately, Prescott has a safe floor but somewhat-limited ceiling compared to the other QBs in this tier. You definitely don't want to reach for him, but if you wind up with him as your starter in the middle rounds, you'll be in decent shape. You can reach a bit for a potentially bigger score with Jackson, Watson, or Tagovailoa, but you probably won't have to. At least one of these signal-callers will fall, making this the tier that fantasy owners will target.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
Fantasy Draft Strategy: What happens when you "wait" at QB?
QB TIER 4
12 Daniel Jones, Giants
13 Kirk Cousins, Vikings
14 Aaron Rodgers, Jets
15 Jared Goff, Lions
16 Geno Smith, Seahawks
If you decide to be the last owner in your league to draft a starting QB, these are the guys you'll likely be choosing from. These veterans won’t put up eye-popping numbers in fantasy every week, but they will have top-five moments.
Among the five QBs in this tier, Rodgers will receive the most attention, as everyone will want to see if his last season with the Packers was a fluke or a sign of things to come. The 39-year-old former MVP couldn’t get into a rhythm last season with the Packers' young WR corps, completing 64.6 percent of his passes for 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The last time Rodgers had double-digit interceptions was in 2010 when he threw 11. He managed just 14.1 fantasy points per game last season, which was a huge difference from the '21 season (20.8 FPPG). Rodgers’ early ADP is at 101, placing him in the ninth round, but there’s a chance that Rodgers outplays his ADP and gets into Tier 3. He’ll be reunited with OC Nathaniel Hackett and has a good supporting cast.
Cousins is a "safer" version of Rodgers -- not overly exciting but still capable of putting up good stats every week. In five seasons with Minnesota, Cousins has averaged 4,187 yards and 30.6 TDs per season. That works for a low-end QB1 that can be had at a value price. Daniel Jones might have a higher ceiling because of his rushing ability (708 yards, seven TDs last year), but Cousins has the stabler floor.
Meanwhile, Goff and Smith are coming off solid seasons, but fantasy owners are wondering if they can do it again this season. Goff should be able to average 16-18 FPPG against, as he has a good trio of wide receivers (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Marvin Jones) and a new backfield (David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs) to utilize in the passing game. Goff won’t have Williams for the first six weeks of the regular season due to a suspension, but it shouldn’t hinder his fantasy production, as the Lions did not have the young wide receiver for the first 11 games last season.
Finally, Smith proved to the NFL world last season that he can be a starting-caliber QB when given a chance. He had five games with 20-plus fantasy points while completing 69.8 percent of his passes for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. If Seattle’s offensive line can protect Smith this year (46 sacks last season), it could be a big season for him given his talented group of receivers.
You don't really want any of these guys as your starter, but given how cheap you can get them, you should be able to build a stacked roster at other positions. It's not a bad idea to grab two of these guys in a three-round stretch. That way, you can either play matchups with two solid QBs or hope that one of the two significantly outperforms his ADP, which isn't a bad bet.
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
Fantasy QB Rankings Tiers: Backups, bounce-backs, and 2-QB Starters
QB TIER 5
17 Matthew Stafford, Rams
18 Russell Wilson, Broncos
19 Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders
20 Derek Carr, Saints
This tier is for veteran QBs who have regressed or are coming off an injury. However, all have the potential to be low-end QB1s if they stay healthy and recapture some of their old form. If you have a top-tier or even a second-tier QB and want to draft a backup, this is the tier you should focus on late in your draft.
Garoppolo might be the most interesting sleeper in this group, as she will be reunited with Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels. The 31-year-old signal-caller is looking to avoid the injury bug, which has been an issue in two out of the past three seasons. If Garoppolo is healthy, he could have a bounce-back season throwing to Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Jakobi Meyers. Last season, Derek Carr threw the ball 502 times under McDaniels, which could be a sign of things to come for Garoppolo, who threw the ball 400-plus times twice in his six years with the 49ers.
Stafford is in the same boat as Garoppolo. He missed eight games last season with a concussion. The former Super Bowl-winning QB is looking to return to his 2021 form when he threw for 4,886 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect a similar output this season, as the Rams are in retooling mode on offense and defense. Stafford still has Van Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Higbee at his disposal, but there are a lot of question marks after that.
Lastly, Wilson and Carr could be solid QB2s and are capable of having a couple of huge fantasy performances this season. Wilson has more upside than Carr playing for Sean Payton, but it's tough to ignore how bad he looked last season. Both veterans have talented receivers to throw to, so it's really on them to put it all together again.
FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY:
Snake | Auction | Best ball | Dynasty | IDP
Fantasy QB Streamers and Sleepers
QB TIER 6
21 Anthony Richardson, Colts
22 Brock Purdy, 49ers
23 Kenny Pickett, Steelers
24 Kyler Murray, Cardinals
25 Jordan Love, Packers
This tier features four young quarterbacks with breakout appeal. Richardson is the most exciting, as he was drafted with the fourth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. He will look to bring some excitement to the Colts’ offense after they hired former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. Based on what Steichen did in his two years with Jalen Hurts, we should expect to see Richardson being utilized in the running game, which will give him a boost in fantasy. The young dual-threat QB has a big arm but struggles with accuracy, which will cap his ceiling.
Purdy and Pickett both have talented weapons around them, almost all of which are great at running after the catch. Neither tore it up last year from a statistical standpoint, but the talent and opportunity appear to be there for both of them. They're ideal backups if you drafted a Tier 1 starter that you're unlikely to ever bench.
Love also fits the sleeper bill even though no one really knows what to expect from him. Green Bay has some talented young WRs (Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs) and a solid RB duo, so Love has some decent talent to work with.
Murray is the lone veteran in the tier, but that's based solely on the ACL injury that will sideline him for the first several weeks of the season. If he was fully healthy, he'd easily be in Tier 4, if not Tier 3. Consider him a solid draft-and-stash investment, as he could pay off later in the season.
Fantasy QB Deep Sleepers
QB TIER 7
26 Bryce Young, Panthers
27 Sam Howell, Commanders
28 C.J. Stroud, Texans
29 Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
30 Mac Jones, Patriots
31 Ryan Tannehill, Titans
32 Desmond Ridder, Falcons
33 Josh Dobbs, Cardinals
If you are picking up one of these quarterbacks off waivers, you likely have a couple of injuries at the position. Young is the lone sleeper in the group, as he’ll be playing in a Frank Reich offense that has some veterans at WR, RB, and TE. However, the rookie QB will not be a huge playmaker in the running game, as he only had 162 rushing yards at Alabama.
Baker Mayfield could have his name in the sleeper conversation if he recaptures some of his old magic. Mayfield has a nice set of pass-catchers at his disposal, so there’s no reason why he can’t be better than what he showed last season with the Panthers and Rams.
Ultimately, these QBs are best suited for superflex and 2-QB leagues. If any starts hot, you can grab them off waivers, but you don't need to invest in them in 12-team, single-QB leagues.
