Every year, we compile lists of fantasy football sleepers at every position and for every NFL team. We dive deep into statistics and attack variables from all angles to pinpoint potential breakouts. That's on top of all our rankings for every position, which inevitably highlight potential draft values. While it's always more fun to focus on undervalued sleepers, this article will be looking at players you might want to avoid. That’s right — it's time to try to identify a bust candidate from all 32 NFL teams.
Many associate the term "bust" with players who have epic fails of a season, but it can also mean a guy who simply fails to live up to his average draft position (ADP). A second-round or third-round pick who ultimately produces seventh-round value most definitely qualifies as a bust. A wideout who moves to a new team and sees his targets drop by 40 percent — even by no fault of his own — is a bust.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
How do we find bust candidates? Sometimes it’s a player who seems primed for touchdown regression (looking at you, Jamaal Williams and Miles Sanders); sometimes it’s a back who just lost his stud QB or has a rookie under center (hi, Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara); still other times, it’s a wideout who goes from catching passes from a future Hall-of-Fame QB to a fringe NFL starter (sorry, Mike Evans — Baker's no GOAT).
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
Of course, we’ll highlight guys who have aged and/or been bit by the injury bug. We’re not ageists here — yours truly is aging in dog years — but the NFL is a very difficult career to grow old within. And there’s always plenty of rookies looking to take a guy’s spot (welcome to the show, Jaxon Smith-Njigba — save some targets for Tyler Lockett, now!).
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Let’s stop talking about general misfortunes and start talking about who we think will be the most unfortunate. Our goal today is to help you maximize fantasy value at all times and to steer you away from potential mistakes on draft day — because, in the grand scheme of things, dodging bullets is just as important as hitting bullseyes. So, without further ado, here are the top bust candidates for all 32 teams.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 fantasy cheat sheet
Fantasy Busts 2023: One bust candidate from every team
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner, RB
We had Conner listed here last year, and as Led Zeppelin once sang, "the song remains the song." Last season we knew he was in for TD regression, having found the end zone a whopping 15 times in 2021. We were right about that — he totaled seven scores in 2022. This season, we're worried about a few things: him turning 28 and coming off an underwhelming season, his QB Kyler Murray starting the campaign hurt, and his offensive line which PFF ranks second-worst in the NFL and writes that it "seems like it's entirely built from left tackles." Terminator voice: 'Your fantasy career is dead — leave Arizona if you want to live.'
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE
We don't think Pitts will be nearly as bad as he was last season — Desmond Ridder is an obvious upgrade over the brutal QB play of Marcus Mariota — but we also don't have as much confidence in his ability to enjoy a bounce-back breakout campaign. The fantasy managers drafting him early are still chasing his rookie numbers from 2021, when he broke Julio Jones' Falcons' rookie record for receiving yards. What we saw last year from Pitts was not just a frustrated second-year pass-catcher — it was a lazy route-runner, a non-competitor on 50/50 balls, and ultimately, a guy who lost his last six weeks to a season-ending knee injury. Too many red flags here — like a hippie festival in 100-degrees heat, we're staying away from the Pitts.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
Baltimore Ravens: Odell Beckham Jr., WR
We had Rashod Bateman listed here last year, and that worked so well thanks to Lamar Jackson's awful deep-passing ability that we're dipping into Baltimore's newest hyped receiver for our next bust. OBJ is far from the stud WR1 his one-year, $18 million deal suggests he is at this stage of his career. He turns 31 in November and has missed 30 games over the past three years. The elite athleticism that made him a household name is a thing of the past — and as long as Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Zay Flowers are around, Beckham's fantasy relevance will be a thing of the past as well.
Buffalo Bills: Damien Harris, RB
We liked James Cook over Devin Singletary last year, and we like Cook over Damien Harris this season. It's easy to look at Harris's 2021 numbers — primarily his 15 TDs, which led all RBs that season — and wonder if a second breakout could be on the horizon. But it's just as easy to see Harris struggling to stay fantasy relevant for the fourth season of his five-year career. The biggest issue with Harris — besides the fact that he's not a pass-catching back — has always been health. He missed 14 games as a rookie, six in his sophomore season, and six last year. Hell, he even missed two contests in his breakout 2021 campaign. With how injury-prone Harris has been — and how prone to QB sneaks Josh Allen has been in the red zone throughout his career — we're not touching the Bills' RB2.
Carolina Panthers: Miles Sanders, RB
This season, Sanders transitions from a QB who just finished runner-up in MVP voting (Jalen Hurts) to a rookie (Bryce Young). He will also go from one of the best offensive lines of the 21st century to a middle-of-the-pack group of young run-blockers. As Jay-Z once said, "the outcome ain't good." We don't expect Sanders to suck — we just don't like him at his ADP of 50. The guy just finished the 2022 season ranked 29th in breakaway run rate and 35th in juke rate, and 64 players averaged more yards after contact per rushing attempt. Temper your expectations.
Chicago Bears: D.J. Moore, WR
Justin Fields' legs made for a fun storyline in 2022, but they certainly didn't translate to much success. The Bears finished 3-14, the worst record in the NFC, and they finished dead-last in passing yards and net yards per pass attempt. Now Chicago gets D.J. Moore coming off one of his worst NFL seasons, and suddenly everything's supposed to be peachy? Moore caught a career-low 53.4 percent of his 2022 targets and finished with 63 receptions and 888 yards (both the lowest since his 2018 rookie year). He also averaged just 2.9 yards after catch per reception, which ranked 151st in the NFL. Mo' money, Moore problems.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Mixon, RB
We hate to get all Bruno from Encanto on you here, but regression and health problems are coming for Mixon. The guy has averaged 20 touches per game and played 37 contests between the past two regular seasons and playoffs, and he's 27. DraftSharks lists the seventh-year RB as a "very high risk" for injury due to his past ankle, knee, foot, and concussion issues. He also finished with under 3.6 yards per carry in 11 games last season, so his production is slipping. Cincinnati's future is through the air, and Mixon's future could vanish into thin air if he gets hurt or regresses any worse.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson, QB
Watson looked downright bad last season after coming off his 11-game suspension. Despite having an average of 2.9 seconds of pocket time (2nd-most in the NFL), he only completed 58 percent of his passes and averaged a measly 6.5 yards per pass attempt. All said, only 12 of his 99 completions went for 20-plus yards — and only four went for 30-plus. All Watson can do at this point is put on some Springsteen and harken back to the "Glory Days."
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott, QB
Prescott racked up an NFL-leading 15 interceptions and an incredible 66 poor passes in 12 games last season, more than the Seahawks' Geno Smith threw in a complete 17-game campaign. And yet, Dak's ADP is 84 while Smith is 114. What are we doing!? Just because Dallas is "America's Team" and commands more national TV attention, Prescott gets drafted 30 spots higher than the clearly superior QB? Nah, to hell with that. Every year we think Dak will break out and became a superstar, and every year he lets us down. No mas!
Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton, WR
Sutton has established himself as a fantastic downfield receiver — when he has a decent QB. But Russell Wilson has become so inaccurate on balls thrown 20-plus yards down the field, there's no way we can trust Sutton — even in the eighth or ninth round, where he's going. He caught just 58.7 percent of his targets last year, finished with 4.3 receptions per game, and found the end zone just twice in 15 games. He's basically the D.J. Moore of the Rockies — a supreme talent wasting away with a poor-throwing QB.
Detroit Lions: David Montgomery, RB
For a guy standing 5-11, 225, Montgomery sure doesn't pop as a powerful breakaway runner. The four-year Bear turned Lion totaled 201 rushing attempts in his final season in Chicago, and somehow only managed two rushes of 20-plus yards. Even worse, he's now averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt across his entire career. And despite averaging 267.5 touches per season, he has never finished better than RB20. Spoiler: playing behind Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit won't help get him into the teens. Even at his ADP of 79, fade Monty with a capital F.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Jones, RB
Damn, we are going hard on the RBs today. And I used to love Aaron Jones! But his value took a nosedive the second his main man Aaron Rodgers left Lambeau. Now defensive pressure on the line will be constant, with plenty of stacked boxes and not as many crisp passes out of the backfield for Jones. You can do much better than Jones in the third round.
Houston Texans: Dalton Schultz, TE
I like Schultz — just not enough to draft him when he has C.J. Stroud throwing to him. As it is, he failed to replicate his breakout 2021 season. That year, he finished as the TE3 with 78 catches, 808 yards, and eight TDs. Last year, he managed just 57-577-5 and battled a knee issue. The best appears to be behind Mr. Schultz.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor, RB
It's never a good sign when your team's owner basically calls you insignificant before the start of a season. JT certainly deserves a better situation than he's enduring in Indianapolis — the guy is friggin' two years removed from a rushing title, for God's sake — but we're not so sure he deserves better than RB10 in our rankings. There's far too many injury concerns, and when he did see the field in 2022, he disappointed. His average fantasy score: 12.6. His total rushing TDs: four. Leave Taylor for someone else who can't let go of the past.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Zay Jones
It was tough to pick a bust for this team — we basically like it from top to bottom, at least on offense. But we like Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram better than Jones, so he's the odd man out. He's a candidate for negative regression with Ridley bursting onto the scene, so our only word of advice is to not chase Jones's 823 yards and five TDs from a season ago.
Kansas City Chiefs: Jerick McKinnon, RB
McKinnon was a nice surprise last season, finishing as the RB26 thanks to a strong second half of the season. But the dude's 30 and won't score on another 10 TDs in a season anywhere outside of Madden. The Chiefs' offense is taking a step back this year, and second-year speedster Isiah Pacheco figures to take a step forward. McKinnon is a fade, even at his 10th-round ADP.
Los Angeles Chargers: Mike Williams, WR
Williams has two problems: (1) he can't stay healthy, having played just a little over 14 games per year since entering the NFL in 2017, and (2) he can't put up consistently solid numbers game in and game out. His 13-game, 895-yard, four-TD season last year was maddening for fantasy owners and Bolts fans alike, because we've all seen him score 9-10 TDs in a season or log 1,000-1,100 yards. But if he can't stay on the field — and produce consistently, he ain't worth our while.
Los Angeles Rams: Cooper Kupp, WR
It was always going to be downhill for Kupp after his historic 2021 season, in which he won the receiving triple crown with a league-leading 145 catches, 1,947 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns. Kupp played just nine games last season, and when he did play he averaged just over 90 yards per game. All said, he finished with six TD catches, pedestrian for him. His superhuman powers are long gone, and so is the dominance once exhibited by this Rams franchise.
Las Vegas Raiders: Josh Jacobs, RB
We hate doggin' a guy right after he won the rushing title, but Jacobs simply cannot sustain another 17-game, 393-touch season — especially with a shaky offensive line. Expect Josh McDaniels to bump up the passing game now that he's reunited with fellow former Patriot Jimmy Garoppollo. We might even see an uptick in Zamir White touches. We will not see another rushing crown for Jacobs, who's being drafted by many managers like he's Derrick Henry 2.0 or something.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Sorry, but I'm just being a realist: one more concussion, and this dude's career is over. Tua and the Dolphins toe an incredibly dangerous line even trying to prolong this career. We've seen the unfortunate side effects to experiencing multiple concussions in a short amount of time, and yet they're doing nothing besides teaching him how to fall. Well, I know how to make your fantasy team fall: draft Tua as your QB1.
Minnesota Vikings: Alexander Mattison, RB
Mattison has been a serviceable backup his whole career, but the 25-year-old has been a tad overrated as a handcuff. Now with Dalvin Cook out of the picture and Mattison's ADP at 57, he's being overrated as an RB1. Now five years into his careeer, he has never operated as a workhorse back for even two games in a row — don't gamble on a full-season ceiling without even knowing the floor.
New England Patriots: D/ST
As a lifelong Patriots fan and a die-hard Bill Belichick believer, it pains me to write this. But as a fantasy analyst and a realist, I also know that defenses rarely rank amongst the top two in fantasy two years in a row, never mind three consecutive years. There will obviously be some natural regression, and with stud cornerback Jack Jones dealing with off-the-field issues the secondary is the main source of skepticism. Oh, and the fact that New England has the worst schedule in the NFL. That gauntlet was a worse Belichick hit job than Deflate Gate!
New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara, RB
This marks Kamara's second consecutive appearance on this list, and he might make it as long as he remains an NFL pro. He's a major issue off the field, obviously, and a huge distraction to an otherwise-hopeful Saints franchise. Kamara's looming three-game suspension is reason enough to stay away — the fact that his per-game production is a shell of what it once was is icing on the cake. Give me Jamaal Williams at No. 98 over Kamara at 59.
New York Giants: Darren Waller, TE
Waller has missed a total of 13 games over the last two years due to injury, and when he does see the field he largely disappoints us because he can't live up to the expectations from his lone Pro Bowl season. A potential increase in targets can only mean so much for a player who has exceeded three TDs in a season just once in his career.
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers, QB
Many of my colleagues are high on the Jets with ARodg, but I couldn't be much lower. This squad just went 7-10 without him, now we're expecting the Ghost of Four MVPs Past to step up and make this an 11-6 squad? He's 40 years old, getting weirder and weirder, he's far from clutch, and he's not built to mentally or emotionally take the beating that QBs do in New York City. Fade!
Philadelphia Eagles: D'Andre Swift, RB
I like Swift a lot, but I like Rashaad Penny more. Swift can't seem to stay healthy, and when he does he often gets outshined by his running mate. Such will be the case this season if Penny can stay healthy — the former Seahawk has averaged the most yards per rush among running backs over the past two seasons (6.2). Bump Penny up, knock Swifty down.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris, RB
We often point to Najee's sudden estrangement from Pittsburgh's passing game as the reason he endured such a sophomore slump. But in reality, Harris wasn't all that good on the ground, either. In each of his first two NFL seasons, the 25-year-old has failed to average four yards per tote. And you can't tell me that this dude isn't an injury concern just because he's played 17 games in each of the past two campaigns. His DraftSharks chart is lengthy for a third-year back, and he's already listed as a "high risk" on their injury guide.
San Francisco 49ers: George Kittle, TE
Kittle will always be a risky draft-day acquisition, mostly because of his injury history. He has averaged 12.8 games per season over the past four years, and DraftSharks gives him as an 89 percent chance of injury this season. Between that ominous number and the 49ers' uncertainty under center, we're staying away from Kittle at his ADP in the low 50s.
Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Lockett, WR
Lockett's about to turn 31 and he's 5-10, 180, so he's naturally listed as a "very high injury risk" entering his ninth NFL season. We love Lockett and landed him as a superb value pick last year, but simply cannot roll the dice on him in the sixth or seventh round, where he's been going. Seahawks rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba feels like a much better investment a round or two later.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans, WR
Evans had a difficult and frustrating 2022 season with Tom Brady on the decline. He will likely have an even more challenging 2023 campaign with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center. He's a deep-ball receiver and elite fade-route option, and Mayfield is one of the worst at both. Stay away from Evans like gas station sushi.
Tennessee Titans: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
Hopkins chose the Titans over the Patriots in the offseason, and it's hard not to think he will end up the next wide receiver who went to Nashville to die. Tennessee has PFF's worst-ranked offensive line and Ryan Tannehill was one of PFF's eight worst deep-ball passers in 2022. This offense is Derrick Henry's — he's the king, after all — so consider Hopkins' fantasy value Nuk'ed.
Washington Commanders: Antonio Gibson, RB
Gibson has fallen off in a major way over the past couple seasons after a promising 2020 rookie campaign. His yards per carry have decreased steadily, from 4.7 three years ago to 4.0 in 2021 and 3.7 last season. His catch rate has also dropped in each of his past two seasons, as have his TDs both on the ground and from the line of scrimmage. This squad seems to favor Brian Robinson Jr. as its workhorse back, and Gibson has a better chance of getting waived than he does at leapfrogging BRob. Find better value at Gibson's ADP of 87.
