Fantasy basketball rookie rankings 2022: Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren among top rookies for dynasty, keeper leagues

Sloan Piva

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Fantasy basketball rookie rankings 2022: Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren among top rookies for dynasty, keeper leagues image

With the NBA Finals already in the distant rear-view — and the smoke largely clearing from the NBA Draft and free agency — the only things that seem completely uncertain on the hoops horizon are the landing spots of Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. We have a basic understanding of teams’ depth charts, projected starting fives, and the roles of newly acquired players. Now, we have the added benefit of the NBA Summer League to give us a bigger picture of how the rookie class will shape out and who fantasy basketball owners should target in their upcoming keeper and dynasty league drafts.

Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith Jr. were the easy calls as the top-three picks in this year's draft, so it's no surprise they're the top three in our 2022 fantasy basketball rookie rankings. However, they're not the only first-year players who could have impacts this year and beyond. Let's get to the list!

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Fantasy basketball rookie rankings 2022: Top prospects for dynasty, keeper leagues

TIER ONE: THE NO-BRAINERS

1. Chet Holmgren, F/C, Thunder

Holmgren is an absolute freak of a talent, compared by seemingly all the hoops world to a Kristaps Porzingis clone (69.1 TS percentage, 39 percent from deep). He looked more like a Kristaps/Nikola Jokic/Dirk Nowitzki hybrid with handles in his staggering Summer League debut on Tuesday. Full disclosure: OKC played the Jazz, who had Kofi Cockburn and Tacko Fall at center. Still, Holmgren looks ready to make an immediate impact in a big role for the Thunder this season.

If Holmgren can handle the physicality of the NBA, he’s sure to be a star for years to come. The Gonzaga product can shoot, pass, defend, and rebound as well as anyone in this class, and he’s going to immediately improve a motivated fantasy squad by at least two or three spots in the standings. You could easily start a rebuild around Holmgren, in fantasy or in real-life hoops. Don’t get cute and let him slide past the top three picks.

2. Paolo Banchero, F, Orlando Magic

Banchero went from being the consensus No. 1 pick through January to the consensus No. 3 pick from February until draft night. Then, to almost everyone's surprise, he wound up being the No. 1 pick after all. Well, now he's been jumped again, moving from No. 1 to No. 2 in our dynasty rookie rankings. No one would fault you for taking him first, though.

Nobody appeared more NBA-ready than Banchero throughout most of his freshman year at Duke — the ACC Player of the Year looked like a pro among amateurs. Sporting News’ own Kyle Irving has always considered Banchero “the best player in this class," citing his shot creation, passing, and three-level scoring ability. Paolo’s polished, he’s strong, and he’s the franchise player the Magic desperately needed.

3. Jabari Smith Jr., F, Houston Rockets

Even though he didn't go first like many expected, Smith landed a great fit in Houston and is still primed to be the eventual franchise player with a solid young core around him. Smith shoots well (43/42/80 last year), and rebounds, defends, and distributes well for his 6-10, 220-pound frame. Smith is also a worthy top pick in dynasty drafts.

TIER TWO: UPSIDE MEETS OPPORTUNITY

4. Keegan Murray, F, Sacramento Kings

Yours truly nailed Murray at No. 4 in my NBA Draft betting odds columns, and I’m nailing him down to No. 4 on the fantasy dynasty rookie rankings, too. We’ve already seen him explode on the Summer League court. Murray has it all — pure shooting stroke, ability to score at all three levels, defensive versatility — and the Kings will make him a very busy man right off the bat. Some fantasy owners will opt for more flashy playmaking types — and no one would fault you for taking Jaden Ivey at No. 4 — but if Murray drops to No. 5 or lower, you should scoop him up regardless of your team construct.

5. Jaden Ivey, G, Detroit Pistons

Ivey always wanted to play for the Pistons, and Detroit clearly always wanted him to fall to pick No. 5. Incidentally, the Purdue product lands at No. 5 in our dynasty rookie rankings, too. His athleticism and explosiveness will be huge right off the bat for dynamic 2021 No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham, taking some of the offensive burden off the franchise’s top building block. Ivey won’t dazzle you with a ton of threes or defensive stats, but he’ll rack up the points, assists, and rebounds and he won’t hurt you in any of the percentages. He’s a great pick at No. 4 or No. 5, regardless of your team build.

TIER THREE: BREAKOUTS CANDIDATES AND EARLY SLEEPERS

6. Bennedict Mathurin, F, Indiana Pacers

I’ve considered Mathurin even higher on this list, but the aforementioned players ultimately beat him out, as they should step into larger roles on Day 1 of the NBA season. But Benny’s the real deal: He has NBA-ready size, strength, and skills to go along with the classic pro combo of 6-6 height with 6-9 wingspan. He has a pure shooting stroke and can be a lockdown defender if he stays focused and motivated. Many analysts have listed Mathurin’s comps as Jason Richardson and Quentin Richardson, which should excite anyone picking beyond the top five of this otherwise top-heavy draft class. You won’t find a more solid fantasy player, short or long-term, at this point in your draft.

7. Dyson Daniels, G, New Orleans Pelicans

Daniels is perhaps the best player to ever get drafted out of the G League. He's coming off an extremely impressive campaign with the Ignite. He’s not an explosive athlete or a knock-down shooter, but he’s a masterful playmaker and a versatile defender. You’ll definitely see an impact in your counting stats with DD on your squad, especially assists, rebounds, and steals. He’s also already a favorite of the Pelicans coaching staff, apparently. If you have a three-point build, shy away, but if you target other stats, make Dyson your man.

8. Mark Williams, C, Charlotte Hornets

As a dynasty and keeper league owner heavily invested in LaMelo Ball, I jumped for joy when Mark Williams ultimately landed with the Hornets on draft night. Standing 7-2 in shoes with a 7-7 wingspan, Williams provides a lob threat that veteran Mason Plumlee could not for the 2021 Rookie of the Year. The Duke product also won’t hurt your percentages — he finished his sophomore season above 72 percent both on the floor and at the line. The most tantalizing stat: Williams’ 2.8 blocks per game this past season. A rim protector and inside finisher is just what the doctor ordered in Charlotte.

9. Jeremy Sochan, F, San Antonio Spurs

Sochan might be my favorite sleeper of the 2022 draft class because he’s just so polished in so many different ways. He’s a classic Gregg Popovich selection — his intangibles and impact on both ends of the floor will almost guarantee him a 25-minute role right off the bat. He’ll help you with efficiency, defense, and some ancillary counting stats, but don’t expect many three-pointers or 20-point games.

10. Jalen Duren, C, Detroit Pistons

Duren surprisingly fell down the draft board and then landed right into Detroit’s lap via Charlotte and eventually New York. An unlikely path to the Pistons, to be sure, but Duren stockholders must be ecstatic about the possibilities. Besides a backcourt complement to Cunningham, the biggest need in Motown was a promising big man. Isaiah Stewart flashed at times last season, as did Marvin Bagley after his midseason move to Detroit, but Duren has a much higher ceiling than any other big man on the Pistons depth chart. He’s a double-double threat with high field-goal percentages, rebounding, and block numbers. He’ll kill your free throw percentage and won’t contribute much in assists, but if you’re punting either or both, he should be at least top 10.

TIER FOUR: PURE SCORERS

11. A.J. Griffin, F, Atlanta Hawks

Griffin seems like one of the more underrated fantasy assets in this class because he’s a pure shooter with a high basketball IQ. With Danilo Gallinari shipped out in the Dejounte Murray trade and Bogdan Bogdanovic constantly battling injuries, Griffin could iron out a strong role with the playoff-contending Hawks right away. Starting small forward De’Andre Hunter can be streaky from beyond the arc, so it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Atlanta coach Nate McMillan look Griffin’s way early and often. With superstar Trae Young and fellow All-Star Murray manning the backcourt, Griffin should see plenty of open looks from distance in his debut season.

12. Johnny Davis, G, Washington Wizards

The Wizards needed to provide franchise cornerstone Bradley Beal with a fellow scoring option out of the backcourt or they might have indirectly killed the man. Beal has quite simply needed to put this organization on his back for the majority of the past decade, and it was widely reported that he could venture elsewhere this offseason. However, the three-time All-Star stuck it out, signing a max extension to stay in DC.

Davis should help make Beal’s life easier this coming season. He’s a natural scorer and competitor with a deadly mid-range game and surprising toughness for a 6-5, 195-pound guard. He’s a fringe top-10 rookie in fantasy just because I don’t fully trust his three-point shot, playmaking, or ability to defend. He could become the next Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, he could get buried on the depth chart by Will Barton and Monte Morris, and he could also set a rookie record for turnovers. Talk about high-risk, high-reward! If you need scoring, scoop him at 12. If you play to win less-popular categories like turnovers and field-goal percentages, run away like Ye and Pusha T.

TIER FIVE: DEEPER SLEEPERS/BREAKOUT CANDIDATES

13. Jake LaRavia, F, Memphis Grizzlies

Who has developed young assets better than the Grizzlies the past few years? Check out all the progress we’ve seen Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins and company instill since Jenkins became HC in 2019: Ja Morant jumped from Rookie of the Year to an MVP candidate in a year; Desmond Bane went from relatively-unknown 30th pick to recipient of an All-NBA vote (seriously); Jaren Jackson Jr. launched from perennially injured bust to constantly feared rim protector and Defensive Player of the Year candidate; and most important, the Grizz went from an ‘18-19 record of 34-48 (12th in the West) with the fewest points per game (103.5) and the worst pace (96.6) to a ‘22 record of 56-26 (second in the West) with the second-most points per game (115.6) and the third-best pace (100.3). Their net rating rose from 24th to fourth in three seasons, people!

Memphis has developed an incredible system, and every player within that system knows and almost-perfectly carries out their role. LaRavia has tremendous talent across the board, able to help you in a ton of fantasy counting stats. He’s a burly 6-8, 235 pounds with a 6-11 wingspan, and he caught Executive of the Year Zach Kleiman’s eye enough to trade up for the prospect. He shot 4-of-7 from distance in a Memphis Summer League win over Philly on Tuesday. Buy in if LaRavia falls into the second round of your dynasty rookie draft.

14. Shaedon Sharpe, F, Portland Trail Blazers

You’ve heard all the references to Sharpe being the “mystery man” of this draft class. We didn’t see Sharpe play one minute for the Kentucky Wildcats last season, which stinks because his high-school highlight reel is tantalizing. The Blazers couldn’t pass up on his insane potential and elite athleticism, so they snatched him up in the top 10 to become a Dame disciple.

The future is bright for Portland. Many analysts had this franchise entering rebuilding mode after C.J. McCollum got shipped to New Orleans at February’s trade deadline, but five months later this looks like a potential playoff squad. That said, Sharpe shouldn’t see more than 15-20 minutes tops for a while unless he absolutely blows coach Chauncey Billups away. I like Sharpe’s long-term potential way more than I like the prospect of him being an instant-impact player. Stash him if you’re building, pass him if you’re contending.

15. Ochai Agbaji, G, Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have a proven ability to nurture and develop raw young talent, so it would not be surprising to see Agbaji carve out a halfway-decent role by the end of the season. However, temper your expectations. Cleveland will be in ‘win-now’ mode, so early-season minutes could be minimal unless injuries once again rear their ugly head on J. B. Bickerstaff’s squad. Agbaji does fill a need for the Cavs with his good three-point shooting — he shot over 40 percent from beyond the arc last season for Kansas and went 6-of-7 from deep in KU’s Final Four win over Villanova. He ended up being named the Most Outstanding Player of both the NCAA tournament and the Big 12 tournament, as well as the the Big-12 Player of the Year. He has a future, but his immediate future might be your taxi spot.

TIER SIX: THE BEST OF THE REST, LONG-TERM STASHES

16. Tari Eason, F/C, Houston Rockets

Eason has a massive ceiling, but the Rockets also have a plethora of young talent. Sure, Christian Wood just got traded to Dallas to become Luka Doncic’s new lob threat, but plenty of big men remain in Houston. Alperen Sengun, the aforementioned Smith Jr, Usman Garuba, and Boban Marjonovic could all stand between Eason and playing time — and both Jae’Sean Tate and K.J. Martin could see time at the four in small lineups. Eason makes a good upside pick late in the second round, but consider trading out the pick for a more immediate asset if you’re a contending squad. Rebounds and blocks aren’t recorded on a ‘per-48’ scale in fantasy.

17. TyTy Washington, G, Houston Rockets

Like Eason, Washington has a lot of long-term upside but his short-term impact remains to be seen. Could he steal the role of backup to Kevin Porter Jr. from veteran Trey Burke? Yes, it’s possible, but not likely. The Rockets are extremely young and will need to utilize the leadership of Burke and Marquese Chriss to keep the second unit from turning into a blooper reel. Turn Washington into TyTy the Taxi Guy.

18. Jalen Williams, F, Oklahoma City Thunder
19. Ousmane Dieng, F, Oklahoma City Thunder

It may not seem fair, but I lumped Williams and Dieng together just because they have equally strong upside but equally murky immediate roles on OKC. The Thunder roster features an abundance of young NBA talent, but its second unit has more question marks than an episode of Jeopardy!. Who’s the backup wing behind Josh Giddey and recently re-signed swingman Lu Dort? We know the core four around franchise player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — we just aren’t quite sure about the Thunder’s supporting roles to this point. Williams looked great in OKC's Summer League game Tuesday, but I remember falling in love with Nickeil Alexander-Walker in Summer League once, too.

20. Malaki Branham, G, San Antonio Spurs

Like Sochan, Branham seems like a perfect Popp guy. He possesses a clear feel for the game and a pure shooting stroke rivaled by only Griffin in this class. The Ohio State standout shot 49.8 percent from the field and 41.6 percent from distance in his one-and-done freshman year (he also shot 83 percent from the line — 50/40/90 candidate, anyone?). Branham needs to add some weight to his 6-5, 180-pound frame, but he'll get where he needs to be in San Antonio. Get your three-balls, here!

21. Nikola Jovic, F, Miami Heat

"Heat Culture" might be the most overused phrase in today's NBA, but Pat Riley sure can find talent in drafts and Erik Spoelstra and company know damn well how to nurture talent. Jovic could be Miami's latest steal, as we saw him light up the Warriors in Summer League on Tuesday with 25 points (he went 5-of-7 from long-range). Jovic will have a steep learning curve playing against NBA bigs, but somehow I think he'll make it just fine.

22. Gui Santos, F, Golden State Warriors

Get out the chalk and chalkboard and turn me into Bart Simpson! I will not be reactionary about Summer League. I will not be reactionary about Summer League. Nah, what's the fun in that? Santos looked amazing in his Warriors' Summer League debut on Tuesday. He was knocking down treys, grabbing boards, even nutmegging opponents for rim-running dimes. Santos could very well be a stash for the reigning champs, but he might very well also merit a stash in your dynasty league. Taxi him and hope for the best.

23. Walker Kessler, C, Utah Jazz

Kessler landed in Salt Lake City as part of the Rudy Gobert trade, and the upstart Jazz could end up utilizing the rangy big early and often. He has the potential to immediately impact your field goal percentage, rebounding, and block numbers. I just can't get too excited about his upside — or the upside of basically anyone else at this level of the draft.

24. Kennedy Chandler, G, Memphis Grizzlies

I was big on Chandler ahead of the draft and loved his fit as Ja Morant’s backup, but Memphis re-signed stud backup point guard and assists-to-turnover God Tyus Jones, so all bets were off. Chandler could become this year’s version of Sharife Cooper of the 2021 Hawks -- young kid with incredible point guard skills but no space behind an All-Star and a top-tier backup.

Sloan Piva

Sloan Piva Photo

Sloan Piva is a content producer for The Sporting News, primarily focused on betting, fantasy sports, and poker. A lifelong New Englander, Sloan earned his BA and MA in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts and now lives in coastal Rhode Island with his wife and two kids.