The fantasy baseball season is in full gear as we dive into the first trade advice piece of the season.
Our monthly "Who to Trade" pieces will highlight targets to buy or sell with the aid of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer. The analyzer compares selected players both from a statistical projection and an overall trade value based on several factors, including positional versatility and deviation from the average of their position.
We’re early in the year, of course, but it’s always the right time to make a savvy move. Let’s dive in and check out some prime targets and provide some examples of the types of deals you should be looking to make!
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Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Week 2
Players to buy
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Orioles
Mountcastle is currently rostered in just 67.5 percent of ESPN leagues but is already showing he is a major breakout candidate.
Through the first five games, the 26-year-old slugger already has two home runs, two doubles, and six RBIs. Mountcastle’s .969 OPS on the very young season is superior to the likes of Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Things can change quickly and it’s a tiny sample, but it’s also a heck of a start for a player entering his prime production seasons.
Let’s use Josh Bell as a comparison in a deal for Mountcastle. Bell is rostered in 87.6 percent of ESPN leagues and gets a slight recommendation by the analyzer, but Mountcastle projects to have a superior season in many key offensive categories.
The Orioles’ first baseman figures to produce far more home runs and RBIs than Bell, so right away, that’s enough for us. In five games so far this season, Bell has just one hit -- a single -- in 17 at-bats and he hit just 17 home runs in 156 games played last season. At this point, the 30-year-old could struggle to reach 20 home runs again this season.
The smart money is on Mountcastle in this type of swap.
Jesus Luzardo, SP, Marlins
Once a top prospect in the A’s system, Luzardo struggled to put it together in the big leagues from 2020-21, but he found something in his first full season with the Marlins in 2022.
After producing an ugly 6.61 ERA across 25 appearances (18 starts) between the A’s and Marlins in 2021, the lefthander turned in a rock-solid 3.32 mark alongside a 3.12 FIP, 3.28 SIERA, and a 30-percent strikeout percentage across 18 starts and 100.1 innings last season. He enjoyed a solid start to '23 campaign with 5.2 shutout frames in a winning effort against the Mets, albeit with four walks. He yielded just two hits against a strong Mets lineup.
What’s more, Luzardo averaged 97.4 mph on his fastball in his season debut, up from 96.4 mph last season and his career mark of 96.1. He threw all four of his pitches harder than he has in the past.
We’ll use Jose Berrios as a comparable in the Trade Analyzer, as he and Luzardo are separated by about one percent in ESPN rostership. Check it out.
While Berrios gets the slight edge according to the Trade Analyzer, this is a trade we would certainly make. Not only is Luzardo younger, but he also brings much more strikeout upside to the table after a career high in that department last season. Meanwhile, Berrios has settled in with a merely fair 23.2-percent strikeout percentage in parts of eight seasons to this point.
There’s also the fact Berrios has struggled with the Blue Jays since coming over from the Twins at the 2021 trade deadline. He turned in a career-worst 5.23 ERA, 4.55 FIP, and 19.8-percent strikeout percentage last season and was rocked for eight earned runs in 5.2 innings in his season debut against a weak Royals offense.
The upside is very clearly on Luzardo’s side in this type of swap.
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Players to sell
Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B, Padres
The positional versatility is nice with Cronenworth, but he doesn’t hit for enough power to warrant a spot at first base and doesn’t necessarily stand out in any particular area in fantasy baseball.
Cronenworth hit 21 home runs with 94 runs scored in 2021 but slipped to 17 homers and 88 runs last season while also producing another 88 RBIs. However, he has just 10 career stolen bases in 370 games.
His overall power dropped last season, as he produced a .152 ISO after back-to-back seasons with at least a .192 mark. He also figures to see fewer at-bats following the addition of Xander Boagerts.
Cardinals' middle infielder Tommy Edman (93.3 percent rostered on ESPN) is a fair comparison to Cronenworth (94.1). Let’s check out how the Trade Analyzer views a Cronenworth for Edman swap.
Indeed, the Trade Analyzer likes Edman in this spot, and it’s tough to disagree. The edge in power goes to Cronenworth, but Edman has stolen 62 bases over the last two seasons. He’s also scored at least 91 runs in back-to-back campaigns while largely hitting leadoff. He’s hit ninth in four of his five games this season but should at least hit leadoff against lefthanded pitching.
Cronenworth could drive in a solid amount of runs out of the five-hole on a very good Padres offense, but where he hits following the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. on April 20 remains up in the air.
George Springer, OF, Blue Jays
Sometimes you have to trade good players to acquire good players, and that’s the case here with Springer.
Among the many star outfielders in the game, he’s one of the first we would look to deal in order to shed some risk. Springer has a lengthy injury history and is coming off elbow surgery. That could affect his playing time in his age-33 season.
Springer stole two bases in Toronto's fourth game and swiped a healthy 14 last season, but he managed just 13 steals over his previous three seasons combined (251 games). We don’t see him running a ton, but that could be subject to change.
Nonetheless, let’s see what we can get for Springer according to the Trade Analyzer. Let’s also focus on dynasty leagues with this swap.
While the analyzer still gives Springer the edge in this trade, that's more debatable through a dynasty lens. In Garcia, you’re getting an excellent power/speed combination, and while he’s already 30, he has just 334 MLB games under his belt. The late-bloomer has 58 home runs and 41 stolen bases over the past two seasons and could produce a 30/30 season in 2023.
In Greene, you’re getting a 22-year-old everyday center fielder on the rise. He produced just five home runs and one stolen base in 93 games last season, but also got a late start after breaking his foot in spring training. He hit .308 with four home runs, two doubles, a triple, and .960 OPS this spring, and he homered once with a .316 average, .374 wOBA, and .855 OPS through the first five games.
This is a trade that makes plenty of sense in dynasty leagues and is a more than reasonable swap in redraft leagues.
