We talked in our fantasy baseball second base sleepers column about the complexities of finding 2B-eligible players after the drop-off from the top tier. Below, we'll discuss how tricky it can be to assess shortstop, one of MLB's deepest positions in 2023. It may seem like a no-brainer to grab an elite name at SS early, but if that doesn't jive with your approach — or those elite names go before your turn — we highlight a few values and potential draft-day steals.
Everyone knows the upper-echelon shortstops — Trea Turner has become a perennial top-round talent, while Bo Bichette, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Bobby Witt Jr. make for fine selections in the second round. Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor just barely crack the end of the third round for us in 12-team leagues, and then the real fun begins. We're personally not in love with Dansby Swanson at SS7 and would rather target Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts isn't your typical "sleeper," but he qualifies as a potential steal in this case, as we're drafting him by pick 54 — 21 spots ahead of his ADP.
The goal with shortstop, like any position, is to reach for mid-round upside and late-round value. If you don't get a top-six talent, Bogaerts is not the sole option to save you at SS. As we said, it's one of the deeper positional pools in fantasy baseball, and breakouts emerge at this position every year. You're almost better off grabbing two sleeper shortstops later than you are picking Seager or Lindor in the top of the third round when comparable production can be had at other roster spots.
2023 FANTASY RANKINGS & DOLLAR VALUES:
Cs | 1Bs | 2Bs | 3Bs | SSs | OFs | SPs | RPs | Top 300
Our definition of "sleeper," at least for these exercises, is a player we value much higher than his ADP might otherwise tell you he's worth. Typically, this sort of player strikes us as a bounce-back candidate, a young under-the-radar riser, a veteran coming off an injury, or just a guy whose batted-ball data suggests he will enjoy some positive statistical regression.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS & VALUES:
Cs | 1Bs | 2Bs | 3Bs | OFs | SPs | RPs
This column isn't suggesting that you absolutely must draft any of these players, but rather that you should consider selecting them at least one to three rounds ahead of their ADP. Fantasy baseball championships aren't won on draft day — and they certainly aren't won in the first five rounds. The value and upside you collect in the middle-to-late rounds can make or break your team's chances of contending for the title.
Let's get into our favorite sleepers at shortstop, with a brief explanation as to why we value each of them well ahead of their ADP.
Fantasy Baseball SS Sleepers 2023: Breakouts, values, draft-day steals
Position eligibility based on Yahoo's default settings. ADPs courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Xavier Bogaerts, Padres (ADP: 75)
Apologies to all the Massholes still lamenting the loss of Bogey, but the MLB is a business and sometimes stars follow the money. While the rest of the nation might be sleeping on the former Sox shortstop and letting him slip to the sixth or seventh round, we're targeting Bogaerts by the middle of the fifth. He has a much better offensive core around him, he's in a warm-weather city, and he's going to be fully motivated to be on a perennial contender (knife in the wound to BoSox fans, I know). He slashed .307/.377/.456 last season while cranking 15 homers and swiping eight bags. Another .300 season with 20-25 dingers and 15 steals seems like a realistic goal, and that's well worth the 54th pick.
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (ADP: 87)
Henderson seems like more of a breakout than a sleeper, but he still deserves mention as we've seen him dip as low as pick No. 98 and we have him closer to 77-80. The Orioles infielder has SS/3B eligibility, massive raw power, and surprising sprint speeds that could easily propel him to top-25 ranks by this time next season. A quick glance at his ridiculous exit-velo numbers suggests he's not just a good pick at 80 — he's a bona fide steal.
Jeremy Pena, Astros (ADP: 117)
Pena had quite the 2022. After getting called up from Triple-A, he smashed 22 homers, stole 11 bases, and proceeded to be Houston's postseason hero en route to a World Series title. He became the youngest player to win an ALCS MVP and World Series MVP and will forever be revered as one of the best pro athletes to come out of Rhode Island (shout-out, Providence!) Guess what: He doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. His spring numbers include seven hits, two homers, and six RBIs in 24 plate appearances with a slash line of .292/.320/.667. We have no clue why pundits have been labeling him a bust, but we're happy to select him in the 100-110 range and then laugh all the way to the LeagueSafe.
Jake Cronenworth, Padres (ADP: 158)
There's plenty to like about Cronenworth, the type of player who just puts his head down and does his job no matter what's asked of him. He has multi-positional eligibility, 20-homer upside, and superb hitters all around him. He has also enjoyed a torrid spring, slashing .432/.500/.757 and collecting 28 total bases including two homers, four doubles, and a triple. Cronenworth will start the season as an everyday starter with Fernando Tatis Jr. serving the remainder of his suspension up to April 20, but Bob Melvin might be forced to keep him in the lineup if he keeps hitting the cover off the ball. You can try to see if he'll last to the 150-160 range, but we'll be scooping him up by pick No. 110.
Thairo Estrada, Giants (ADP: 180)
You'll see Estrada's name across a few of our positional sleepers columns because we love him. Our projections have a 20/20 season as his baseline if he can play 150-plus games. He hits righties and lefties well, and always plays hard at every level of the game. He's the prototypical Giants utility man who becomes a standout everyday player.
Nico Hoerner, Cubs (ADP: 181)
Hoerner will have 2B/SS eligibility in no time, as he's expected by Cubs beat reporters to man second on a regular basis. He played just 135 games in 2022, yet collected 10 home runs and 20 steals to go with a slash line of .281/.327/.410. This kind of power/speed/average player with room to grow at just 25 years old is exactly the kind of guy you should target in the 150-165 range. He already has 18 total bases including a homer in just 42 spring at-bats, so don't expect him to live under the radar for too long.
Luis Rengifo, Angels (ADP: 328)
Rengifo has been my favorite late-draft infield flier for a number of reasons. He has eligibility at second, third, and shortstop, he's only 26, and he's smashing the baseball this spring like my infant smashes pots and pans while I'm trying to sleep. The third-year infielder quietly hit 17 homers, swiped six bags, and drove in 52 RBIs last year in just 489 plate appearances, so just imagine what a full season will look like. He has three homers and a steal in spring training to go along with a .385/.393/.846 slash line. Don't let him go undrafted!
