While appearing on Sirius XM radio, I’ve fielded a number of questions from fantasy baseball owners, ranging from player rankings to analyzing trade proposals. Yet, out of all the topics which I’ve covered on-air in the past, there is one which continues to be the most prevalent – rookies.
Baseball is in the midst of a youth movement, and teams are much more willing to promote prospects under the age of 20 -- some who haven’t faced competition higher than Double-A -- straight to the major leagues.
MORE: Fantasy Alarm's Seasonal Playbook Pro | Top 50 prospects
So, why the fascination with young talent? You’d have to imagine that unproven players wouldn’t generate this much interest, but prospects dominate headlines. Over the past few years, the “buzz” around young players has been justified and then some (i.e. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenadom… the list goes on).
Each and every position in baseball is filled with talented studs under 25, perhaps none more than shortstop. Generally speaking, younger players are better equipped to make the jump from the minor leagues than in decades past due to improved competition in the minors, so the immediate success that many of these players are demonstrating is a trend which is bound to continue.
Below I’ve included my personal rankings of the top 20 overall players at the position, based upon their performance to date and expected projections for the remainder of the season.
Fantasy baseball rankings: Shortstop
1. Carlos Correa
2. Xander Bogaerts
3. Francisco Lindor
4. Troy Tulowitzki
5. Corey Seager
6. Elvis Andrus
7. Brandon Crawford
8. Jean Segura
9. Trevor Story
10. Starlin Castro
11. Eugenio Suarez
12. Addison Russell
13. Ian Desmond
14. Jung-ho Kang
15. Alcides Escobar
16. Aledmys Diaz
17, Marcus Semien
18. Ketel Marte
19. Chris Owings
20. Didi Gregorius
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Rising
Aledmys Diaz, Cardinals. Many Cardinals fans wondered if the team would be able to locate a serviceable replacement for Jhonny Peralta once he suffered a torn ligament in his left thumb. Rather than facing two or months months with a replacement-level player, Diaz has burst onto the scene, hitting .381 with a .679 slugging percentage through the first 26 games. A native from Cuba, Diaz received little press and attention when he signed on in St. Louis, which has made this remarkable start all the more surprising. Diaz is capable of playing all over the infield, which will give manager Mike Matheny some options to work with once Peralta returns in early June. Don’t expect him to continue at this pace, but he is capable of finishing the season with a .275 AVG and close to 16 home runs.
Francisco Lindor, Indians. Time for yours truly to start eating some serious crow. In several articles leading up to spring training and shortly before fantasy baseball drafts commenced, I warned owners to not expect a repeat of Lindor’s fantastic 2015 rookie campaign. He was being drafted as a top three shortstop, which seemed absurd to me given his limited offensive skill set. Lindor came through the minor leagues and was regarded as a defensive wizard, much like Andrelton Simmons. Lindor’s high BABIP and AVG in the minors suggested that he was a gap hitter with middling power and plus speed, capable of posting an average north of .300 once he was promoted. His .313-12-51-12 line surprised many last season, yet he has begun 2016 right where he left off, batting .304 with a handful of home runs and stolen bases. I still don’t believe that he will eclipse the 15-HR mark this season, but that doesn’t diminish his value in the slightest. An increased walk rate and OBP will lead to more stolen base opportunities. He isn’t in the same realm as Carlos Correa, but he is firmly in the second tier.
MORE: Top 50 prospects
Falling
Brandon Crawford, Giants. Analysis which I’ll share with you below suggests that Crawford’s 2015 campaign will never be repeated, yet owners opted to pay up for his services, drafting him as a top-five option at the position. Why am I certain that he won’t see a return to glory? Prior to last season, his career high in home runs and RBIs was 10 and 69, respectively, yet last season he hit 21 home runs and drove in 84 runs. Wonder why that won’t happen again? Crawford’s HR/FB rate averaged 5.6 percent from 2011-'14, and then skyrocketed to 16.2 percent last year. Oddly enough that also came as his fly-ball rate decreased from 42 percent in '14 to 33.5 percent in '15. Bottom line? The power numbers were a mirage, not likely to be repeated. Crawford is a career .246 hitter with above-average skills in the field, capable of modest RBI and run totals. Nothing more, nothing less.
Ian Desmond, Rangers. Although Desmond primarily plays outfield for the Rangers, he still qualifies at shortstop in most formats, which is why you’ll find him listed here. Prior to his disastrous 2015 campaign with the Nationals, Desmond had hit 20 home runs and stolen 20 bases for three consecutive seasons, a rare feat in today’s pitcher-dominated era. His gamble in free agency didn’t pay off, and I’m sure that he is kicking himself for rejecting the Nationals’ qualifying offer at this point. Young phenom Nomar Mazara has entrenched himself as the right fielder of the future for the team, and Josh Hamilton (knee) and Shin-Soo Choo (calf) are in the process of returning to the team. If Desmond doesn’t improve his .224 AVG, you can be sure that he will be riding the pine for the months to come.
To see more rankings, stats, weekly league planners, live chats, and season-long tools, sign up for Fantasy Alarm's Seasonal Playbook Pro.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Shortstop
PROSPECT TO WATCH
J.P. Crawford, Phillies. Truth be told there is a number of incredibly gifted shortstops which are just on the horizon, including Orlando Arcia of the Milwaukee Brewers, Dansby Swanson of the Atlanta Braves, and Trea Turner of the Washington Nationals. I’m listing Crawford here because he hasn’t received the fanfare of the other prospects but is just as talented. Similar to the Braves and Brewers, the Phillies have very little to play for in 2016 and aren’t in any rush to promote Crawford and lose eligibility for upcoming seasons. Through 23 games at the Double-A level, Crawford is hitting .280 with an absurd .421 OBP, and he should be promoted to the next level within the next month or so. Freddy Galvis is simply a stopgap at the major league level and is keeping the seat warm for Crawford. Expect him to reach the majors by late July.
PLAYER TO STASH
Trea Turner, Nationals. As I alluded to earlier, there are a ton of fantastic prospects at the shortstop position, but of those which I listed, Turner is the closest to being promoted. He is already at the Triple-A level, and through 25 games is hitting .309 with two home runs, 10 stolen bases (no caught stealings), along with a .393 OBP. It is a bit befuddling that he hasn’t already been promoted, given how horrible Danny Espinosa has been so far. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect much in the way of power from Turner, but he is capable of 20-plus steals, even in a half season. He compares to a young Elvis Andrus with slightly more pop.