With opening day of the MLB season just a week away, it's crunch time for fantasy baseball owners. If you want to mount a successful 2023 season, you had better put in the work and not leave your draft-day strategy to chance with an overwhelming Top 300 rankings list under the gun. Part of that strategy should be targeting sleepers, a vital part of winning drafts and giving your team a shot at a fantasy title. With deep positions like outfield, pinpointing the top sleepers can truly set you apart from your opponents. Today, we will go over our favorite OF-eligible values and explain when and why you should consider selecting them.
Outfield remains one of the most stacked positions in all of baseball, simply because outfielders are well-represented in the categories of speed, power, and contact hitting. The elite top-tier names like Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, and Mookie Betts check all three boxes. Aaron Judge just demolishes the ball — a trait that can certainly help you immensely in and of itself, especially in leagues that include OPS as a category.
But we aren't here to discuss no-brainer first-round picks. We're here to talk about the players who fall under the radar — guys who have low-risk draft-day costs with potentially high-reward payoffs if they reach their ceilings. A "sleeper" can be a bounce-back candidate, a player coming off a major injury, a relatively unknown young riser, or a player in a better position to improve for any number of reasons.
2023 FANTASY RANKINGS & DOLLAR VALUES:
Cs | 1Bs | 2Bs | 3Bs | SSs | OFs | SPs | RPs | Top 300
Sleepers don't necessarily need to be players you draft in the 10th round or higher — that's a misconception. In this exercise, "sleeper" just means a player we value much higher than his ADP might otherwise tell you that he's worth. We use stat analysis, advanced batted-ball data, spring performances, and injury evaluations to ensure we are targeting players who can — and should — outperform their average draft positions (ADPs).
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS & VALUES:
Cs | 1Bs | 2Bs | 3Bs | SSs | SPs | RPs
At the conclusion of every fantasy season, we look back at our draft boards and note how many sleepers and steals the ultimate champion landed. Let's see if we can help you become that champion this season. A big step in that direction will be compiling our sleepers at outfield, arguably one of the three most important positions in fantasy baseball.
Let's get right into our favorite sleepers at outfielder, with a brief explanation as to why we value them well ahead of their ADPs.
Fantasy Baseball OF Sleepers 2023: Breakouts, values, draft-day steals
Position eligibility based on Yahoo's default settings. ADPs courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Bryan Reynolds, Pirates (Average draft position: 81)
Reynolds has a ton of talent — he's just two seasons removed from a 24-homer, 90-RBI season in which he slashed .302/.390/.522 -- but Pittsburgh can get a man down, and we definitely saw a down version of Reynolds last season. We also know what we're getting in terms of strikeout numbers when we draft B-Rey, but I punt strikeouts in fantasy baseball just like I punt turnovers in fantasy hoops (and I'm a Diamond-ranked fantasy hoops player on Yahoo...:shoulder brush:). Reynolds has been hitting the cover off the ball this spring even when served heavy doses of the breaking balls he struggled with at times last year. An investment in Reynolds in the sixth or seventh round could pay off handsomely if and when a playoff team like the Yankees, Braves, or Dodgers makes a run at him.
Byron Buxton, Twins (ADP: 85)
Buxton seems to be a perpetual sleeper candidate, but he always seems to come up short of superstardom because of health issues. Still, how can we resist including him? He mashed 28 homers in 92 games last season and has an 8.1-percent average home run rate over the past three seasons. He's capable of hitting for both average and power, as he proved two seasons ago when he finished with a .306 average and 1.005 OPS. He also has some base-running upside, as we learned when he swiped 48 bags in 255 games between 2017 and '19. With pitchers on the clock and unable to check runners at first over and over, Buxton could really thrive this season if he stays off the injured list. We know that's a big "if," considering he's played more than 92 games just once since coming into the league in 2015. But if he hits that 140-game mark again, he's almost a shoo-in to be an MVP candidate.
Andrew Vaughn, White Sox (ADP: 134)
Vaughn looks poised to finally break out for the South-siders, as he's finally back to his natural position at first and he's seeing the ball really well this spring. He has 10 hits and 16 total bases in just 11 games, good for hitting splits of .323/.364/.516. The most important factor: His strikeout rates continue to go down while his hard-hit rates steadily climb. The massive expectations around his 2021 rookie year are a distant memory at this point, and Vaughn can just settle down, be himself, and emerge as a slugger on his own terms. The best part is if he fails to reach his upside and instead gets you 15-20 homers and a .275 batting average, you didn't waste too valuable of a pick to land him and he's still a serviceable role player. We're bagging him in the 10th and 11th rounds of most drafts.
Steven Kwan, Guardians (ADP: 113)
Kwan will never produce much in the power department, but he's capable of easily competing for the AL hitting crown and he's a low-key beast on the basepaths. He hit .298 in his rookie season while recording 19 steals, and he's already hitting .316 with two steals this preseason. Kwan and the aggressive Guardians should benefit from the new pitcher rules in a major way, so don't second-guess taking the 24-year-old outfielder anytime in the triple-digits.
Kris Bryant, Rockies (ADP: 120)
We try not to overrate park factors, but a full season of Bryant at Coors Field is admittedly tantalizing. He managed just 42 games in an injury-ravaged 2022, but he did hit five homers and bat .306 when active. Extrapolate that to a full season in the mile-high atmosphere and you're easily talking 20-plus dingers. Bryant hit 25 long balls and 73 RBIs while swiping 10 bags in 2021, the majority of which was logged while with a 71-win Cubs team.
Brandon Nimmo, Mets (ADP: 155)
Nimmo's no slugger, but he's certainly serviceable. He gets on base and scores a ton of runs, trends that should only continue as the Mets offense continues to improve. We could see him do some more damage on the basepaths, too, now that pitchers can't toss the ball to first 17 times between pitches. A .275 season with 15 home runs and 100 runs seems like a reasonable projection for Nimmo, which is more than worth a look in the top 140 of your draft.
Masataka Yoshida, Red Sox (ADP: 173)
Yoshida showed us at the World Baseball Classic how instrumental he can be to his team's offense. The Japanese star went 3-for-4 in the WBC semifinals, including the game-tying three-run homer, a run scored, and a walk. Without those contributions, Japan doesn't advance to the title game and win the championship over the U.S. The 29-year-old outfielder is no Ichiro, but he hits for a ton of contact while rarely suffering from strikeout spells. Target him in the top 150 of your drafts.
Thairo Estrada, Giants (ADP: 180)
Estrada is eligible for a bunch of positions as a utility player, so we're throwing him on here since outfield usually has three-to-five starting spots on fantasy rosters. The 23-year-old jack of all trades is coming off a 14-homer, 21-steal season with the Giants, and we love his chances of going 20-20 this year. He's still a relatively unknown commodity, but that will change in short order. Grab him!
Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals (ADP: 184)
Another guy who played for Team Japan in the WBC (and batted damn near .400 most of the tournament), Nootbar has been a popular name around fantasy circles this preseason yet his ADP still sits at just 184. We think the young Cardinal will benefit from the new governance regarding defensive shifts, as last year he hit just .217 against righties compared to .272 against lefties. His exit-velocity numbers and walk-rate numbers are elite, and he flashed a .900 OPS for a two-month stretch last season. Nootbaar is not just a sleeper — he's a future star.
Riley Greene, Tigers (ADP: 188)
The fifth overall pick of the 2019 draft, Greene has plenty of promise but had a bit of an underwhelming debut season in 2022. Still, he exhibited spurts of fantastic offense, reminding all of fantasyland that he's worth our attention for the long haul. Greene's hitting the cover off the ball this spring, with three home runs, 10 RBIs, a steal, a .333 average, and a 1.006 OPS. We're targeting him in the top 170 of every draft.
Oscar Gonzalez, Guardians (ADP: 190)
He may never be "Speedy Gonzalez," but Oscar certainly has plenty of pop and an improving lineup around him. He quietly hit .296 for the Guardians last season — certainly bound to regress given his .345 BABIP — but we still think he's well worth your while at the 175-180 range.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks (ADP: 237)
Gurriel struggled to find his power stroke last season, but that was probably due to a wrist injury for which he had surgery in October. He still hit for average and got on base plenty, so we're expecting some positive power regression this season with the D-backs. He's not in an ideal park with the optimal hitters around him, but he's still much better than his ADP suggests. The 220-300 range is all about finding high-ceiling guys and cashing in on cheap value.
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies (ADP: 265)
The veteran Blackmon has struggled a bit over the past few years, looking like a shell of his former four-time All-Star self. We still think he will benefit substantially from the MLB's new shift rules, and he still plays at Coors Field where the ball pops with or without humidors. Raise those batted-ball numbers!
Lane Thomas, Nationals (ADP: 329)
Thomas has endured a rough start to the season with some brutal spring stats, but remember that the 27-year-old started slow last year, too. In the first half last season, he slashed just .221/.275/.376 and logged one steal. In the second half, he slashed .264/.330/.434 with seven steals. A full season at .270 with 20 homers and 10 steals is not out of the realm of possibilities here.
Oscar Colas, White Sox (ADP: 303)
We always save one of our favorite prospects for last, and Colas definitely ranks as our favorite young outfielder. The 24-year-old Cuban has fantastic vision and bat control and should wreak havoc as soon as he gets the call up from the South-siders. He's torching the ball this spring, hitting .283 with a .496 slugging percentage and three home runs. Take a look at how quickly he can turn on a ball:
Oscar Colás 💣 pic.twitter.com/307Q3D4nTt
— Sleepy Harold (@Sleepy_Harold_) March 11, 2023
Colas is a stash anywhere in the 175-200 range in keeper leagues, and anywhere from 200-225 in redrafts.
