Fantasy Baseball Busts: 2019 All-Overrated Team

Dan Bernstein

Fantasy Baseball Busts: 2019 All-Overrated Team image

Our All-Overrated team reflects the players at each position is most in danger of underperforming their their preseason rankings and average draft position. It is not, however, a list of players you should avoid entirely, so perhaps calling these guys "busts" is a little unfair. Ultimate, it should be used instead as a guide for where to tread carefully, perhaps dropping these players a tier or two and making note of them on your cheat sheet.

Watch ChangeUp, a new MLB live whip-around show on DAZN

These players might have performed above their abilities in 2018 or come with heightened risk of injury. Every one of them seems, for one reason or another, like reaches at the slots they're being taken. Though most fantasy teams will end up with a couple of red-flag draft picks like the ones below, you should consider balancing those risky selections with higher-floor options.

MORE FANTASY BASEBALL: Ultimate 2019 cheat sheet | All-Sleeper Team

2019 Fantasy Baseball Busts: All-Overrated Team

Eligibility based on Yahoo's default settings

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals. Molina has had two straight huge years at the plate, upping his power numbers while maintaining the solid batting average that has characterized his 15 big league seasons. The improved production coincides with an increased launch angle on his swing, meaning the home runs could be sustainable. But he's going to turn 37 soon, and at some point playing more than 120 games behind the plate each year is going to catch up to him. It might be worth looking elsewhere if possible rather than get caught holding the bag at a scarce position.

First base: Cody Bellinger, Dodgers. Bellinger has enjoyed back-to-back years of seemingly unsustainable fly-ball luck. As a rookie, 25 percent of his fly balls left the yard. Last year, 15 percent left the yard, a mark still above league average. His batted-ball profile, meanwhile, is nothing special, with Statcast grading him in the 55th percentile for hard-hit percentage, 55th percentile for expected slugging percentage, and 25th percentile for expected batting average. So, it would not be surprising for the first baseman, who also has outfield eligibility, to fall short of the 25 home runs he hit in 2018 and disappoint across the board. 

2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings:
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Reliever | Top 300

Second base: Dee Gordon, Mariners. The trouble with Gordon has always been his subpar plate approach, which minimizes his very best assets. His walk rate was a meager 1.5 percent in 2018 — one of the worst in MLB — and he posted an average exit velocity in the bottom one percent of the league. In the middle of his career, there's little to indicate his hitting will improve anytime soon, meaning he'll continue to miss out on the steal opportunities that are his lifeblood as a fantasy asset. For that reason, his top-110 ADP is probably too high.

Shortstop: Adalberto Mondesi, Royals. Mondesi is boosted by his eligibility at such a precious position and star performance level in 2018, but he comes with significant red flags. He has very little MLB experience, playing in 147 career games, and he is part of one of the worst offenses in baseball, meaning his RBI and runs scored totals will be limited. While Royals manager Ned Yost has said he's going to run Mondesi frequently, likely elevating his stolen base tally, it's difficult to understand why his ADP is ahead of bonafide fantasy studs like Carlos Correa.

2019 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers:
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Each team

Third base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays. Disclaimer: Vlad Jr. looks like he's absolutely on track to become one of the best hitters in all of baseball. We believe he could wind up delivering an historic rookie campaign. With that said, his ADP of 47 might be a little too high in non-keeper formats, considering he's expected to be held in the minors for the first few weeks of the season and has never played at the MLB level before. Guys ranked just behind him like Eugenio Suarez and Miguel Andujar are much safer selections who you can wait to pick.

Outfielder: Starling Marte, Pirates. It's tempting to pencil in Marte for another one of his high-steal, high-dinger campaigns considering he's coming off a career-high 20 home runs to go with 33 stolen bases. A similar showing in 2019 would make his ADP of 41 look like fair value. But Statcast data shows his speed is starting to slip a little, and his power isn't guaranteed. Proceed with caution here.

Outfielder: Wil Myers, Padres. Myers has lasted 90 games in just two of his six MLB seasons, a very poor return for someone with an ADP of around 105. When he's healthy, he can be a borderline 30/30 threat, but it's just unclear he can hold up for long while playing in the outfield.

Outfielder: A.J. Pollock, Dodgers. Like Myers, it's hard to know how many games Pollock will be able to play given his extensive injury history. Perhaps more concerning is Pollock only stealing 13 bases last season and his sprint speed dipping from 38th in MLB in 2015 to 138th in '18. His fantasy value is closely tied to his ability to swipe bags, so further decline there would be catastrophic.

PERFECT YOUR DRAFT STRATEGY: Mock draft simulator

Pitcher: Luis Severino, Yankees. This has more to do with uncertainty at a high ADP than doubt Severino is a good pitcher. He posted a 5.57 ERA in the second half last year and has generally run hot and cold throughout his career. Even so, the 25-year-old right can lean on a fastball-slider combination that's as explosive a pairing as any in baseball. Drafting a starting pitcher in the top 40 should be a slam dunk, but Severino comes in perhaps a smidge below that level of assuredness despite his obvious strengths.

Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. Kershaw has not made 30 starts in a season since 2015, with back problems the primary reason for him to miss time. He's apparently experienced some shoulder soreness in spring training, and it's fair to wonder whether the soon-to-be 31-year-old lefty is on the brink of a drop-off in on-field performance. We won't blame you for selecting one of the greatest starting pitchers in modern baseball, but it's worth being cautious with him moving forward.

2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Tiers, Draft Strategy
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | StarterCloser

Pitcher: Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks. For the first time in his career, 40 percent of batted balls against Greinke were classified as hard hit last season, an ominous sign that all is not well with the righthander. Additionally, his below-average .272 BABIP, abnormally high 80 percent left-on-base rate and a FIP 0.50 points above his ERA should worry prospective fantasy owners. This is no longer the lights-out starter of a few years ago, and despite strong ERAs of late, he likely will not live up to a top-70 ADP.

Pitcher: Andrew Heaney, Angels. Last season was a milestone year for Heaney, who managed to stay healthy and start 30 games after previously undergoing Tommy John surgery and battling elbow soreness. But those past ailments remain troubling, particularly because his ADP of 166 comes ahead of several more proven starters. And with a career ERA above 4.00, there's little incentive to take a risk here.

Pitcher: Sonny Gray, Reds. Some fantasy owners will likely try to get cute and take Gray late, but it's difficult to see the upside. Great American Ball Park is a horrible fit for a pitcher seemingly low on confidence, and even if he does get it somewhat together, his middle-of-the-road strikeout rate will limit his ceiling.

Top MLB Prospects
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | PitcherTop 50

Reliever: Kenley Jansen, Dodgers. Jansen declined by almost every metric last season and dealt with continued heart problems, which he had offseason surgery to correct but still remain a concern. He's no longer a sure bet for a sub-3.00 or 40 saves, and there's no reason for his ADP to be in the top 80.

Reliever: Wade Davis, Rockies. There are plenty of red flags and little apparent upside for the 33-year-old right from a fantasy perspective. For the first time since becoming a full-time closer, Davis' fastball averaged below 94 mph in 2018. His BABIP, meanwhile, stood at an unsustainable .238. Put those things together, consider he'll again need to pitch at Coors Field, where any decline can be magnified tenfold, and understand you're probably better off waiting on a closer until later in your draft.

Dan Bernstein