The thought has long been that once Masahiro Tanaka signed with a team, the market for free-agent starting pitchers would take shape. That appears to be the case with Matt Garza, as the righthander has reportedly signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for four years at $52 million.
A move back to the National League should be good for Garza, as the 30-year-old was off to a phenomenal start last year with the Cubs, posting a 6-1 record with a 3.17 ERA in 71 innings. However, after he was shipped to Texas, Garza proceeded to go just 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA for the Rangers.
Interestingly, Garza’s peripherals remained pretty similar in Texas to what they were in Chicago. His strikeouts per nine innings stayed flat, while his walk rate declined slightly in Texas 2.35 BB/9. The biggest culprits in his poorer results appear to have been increases in his BABIP and HR/9, though neither was particularly egregious.
The verdict on the ballpark change in this move may surprise some fantasy owners. Of the three parks last year -- Rangers Ballpark, Wrigley Field and Miller Park -- Miller actually had the highest home run factor of 127 to lefties and 134 to righties. Neither of the other two parks had home run factors above 108. Garza is a neutral pitcher -- his ground ball and fly ball percentages were essentially equal last year -- but Miller Park could have some impact on his ERA.
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The other concern is his strikeout rate. His 7.9 K/9 last season was solid, but Garza had struck out more than eight batters per nine in the previous two years. Though Fangraphs.com has Garza at a steady velocity in the past few years, a decline in strikeout rate is always a concern.
It’s also worth mentioning he has a screw in his elbow and threw for just 103.2 innings in 2012 before pitching in 155.1 innings last season. He certainly has injury red flags.
This may seem like we’re about to dissuade you from taking Garza at all. But he should still be a solid value on draft day. The park isn’t pitcher-friendly, but Garza’s peripherals are strong enough that he should be a fantasy asset even if his ERA drifts into the high 3.00s. The Brewers should be a better offensive team than last year, so the opportunity for wins will be there. And while Garza's injury history is always a concern, there is a point where gambling on health becomes worth the risk in redraft leagues.
We suspect Garza will be worth the risk in Rounds 15-20. We also suspect he’ll still be on the board at that time because of those health concerns. If he falls that far in your draft, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.