One of the most common denominators of winning fantasy baseball teams over the past few years has been stud third basemen. If you're shallow at 3B, you could be in for a long season. If you draft one stud, one mid-tier value pick, and one or two sleepers at third, you'll most likely be sitting pretty. Below, we'll highlight six third base sleepers/steals we value well ahead of their ADPs.
Full disclosure: we're hunting for a top-tier third baseman by the middle of the third round. That means we will aim to check one of these boxes:
- Jose Ramirez within the top five of the first round
- Rafael Devers or Manny Machado in the second round
- Austin Riley or Bobby Witt Jr. in the late second or early third round
We'll be very disappointed if we can't come away with one of those five targets. Nolan Arenado is a decent parting gift in the late third round, but he's not as elite in as many categories at his age as the other five, and Alex Bregman just doesn't do it for us, at least at his ADP of 3B7 (even though he's going in the sixth round). So, let's explore our options from that point on.
2023 FANTASY RANKINGS & DOLLAR VALUES:
Cs | 1Bs | 2Bs | 3Bs | SSs | OFs | SPs | RPs | Top 300
Our definition of "sleeper," at least for these exercises, is a player we value much higher than his ADP might otherwise suggest he's worth. Typically, this sort of player strikes us as a bounce-back candidate, a young under-the-radar riser, a veteran coming off an injury, or just a guy whose batted-ball data lends credence to looming positive regression.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS & VALUES:
Cs | 1Bs | 2Bs | SSs | OFs | SPs | RPs
This column is not suggesting that you need two of the following players in order for your team to succeed. Instead, think of it as a cheat sheet of names you should consider targeting at least one to three rounds ahead of their ADP. Fantasy baseball championships aren't won on draft day — and they certainly aren't won in the first five rounds. The value and upside you collect in the middle-to-late rounds can make or break your team's chances of contending for the title.
Let's get into our favorite sleepers at third base, with a brief explanation as to why we value each of them well above their ADP.
Fantasy Baseball 3B Sleepers 2023: Breakouts, values, draft-day steals
Position eligibility based on Yahoo's default settings. ADPs courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (ADP: 87)
Henderson seems like more of a breakout than a sleeper, but he still deserves mention, as we've seen him dip as low as pick No. 98 and we have him closer to 77-80. The Orioles infielder has SS/3B eligibility, massive raw power, and surprising sprint speed that could all come together to easily propel him to top-25 ranks by this time next season. A quick glance at his ridiculous exit-velo numbers suggests he's not just a good pick at 80 — he's a bona fide steal.
Max Muncy, Dodgers (Average Draft Position: 128)
Muncy can be a frustrating player to own, as all of his fantasy investors past and present know about his massive ceiling and his limbo-low floor. The infielder finished top 15 in MVP voting in three of the past five seasons but hit below the Mendoza line in the other two. But Mario Mendoza never hit 139 home runs in a five-year clip, never mind 35-plus dingers in three out of five seasons. Muncy has done that, and he's due for a good campaign after a down one in 2022. With long-time Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner now in Boston, Mad Max likely slides into the fifth spot in the order — probably the second-best fifth spot to hit out of in all of baseball. When Freddie Freeman or Will Smith get a night off, he might bat cleanup. We're betting on another 30-plus homer season for Muncy, and we'll be happily surprised if the new shift rules help him get back to a batting average in the .260-.270 range. We would consider grabbing him at 110-115 if we needed power.
Matt Chapman, Blue Jays (ADP: 144
We're seeing ADPs for Chapman in the 140-155 range, which seems wild to us. Sure, he can be a bit of a free-swinger, but he also draws walks well and hits the ball extremely hard. In fact, his 92.2 mph exit-velo last season was right in line with his career rate of 92.5, and his 51.3 percent hard-hit rate was above his career average. Want more evidence that he's a sleeper? His strikeout rate has gone down by at least three percent in each of the past two seasons (if we're being specific, it was down 5.1 percent last season...even better!). The shift governance will help him immensely, too — nearly 87 percent of the balls he put into play in 2022 were either to the pull side or to the center of the field. With new rules keeping defenses honest, Chapman could see his .277 BABIP from a year ago rise up to over .300. Target Muncy in the area of pick 120.
Anthony Rendon, Angels (ADP: 203)
Rendon has had a rough ride over the past few years — he has failed to reach 60 games in every season since 2019, the year he led the majors with a whopping 126 RBIs for Washington (back when the Nats were good...'member that!?). This guy used to be a doubles machine — he led the NL in '18 and '19 — but his past two seasons as a Halo have been anything but blessed. Still, Rendon's incredibly good at baseball when he's healthy. Good eye, heavy swing, quick bat speed — he has it all -- and his spring training numbers have looked promising: two homers, eight RBI, 24 total bases, and a slash line of .467/.529/.800. Color me intrigued! If you can bag Rendon in the 150-180 range, you've put yourself in a low-risk, potentially high-reward situation.
Ryan McMahon, Rockies (ADP: 195)
McMahon has strength, durability, and park factor on his side, so he's always one of our favorite sleepers to target late. You know what you're getting when you draft him: 20-plus homers, 150-plus games, and a .250 average. He's also good for six-seven steals per season, which in 2023 might translate to 10-12 due to pitchers' limitations with holding runners at first. If the humidor tactics are a thing of the past, Coors Field might help sluggers like McMahon become supreme values at their ADPs. He mashed three bombs in spring training, and we think he's worthy of a pick in the 13th round or later.
Josh Rojas, Diamondbacks (ADP: 209)
Fantasy owners nationwide must think Rojas's 2022 breakout season was a fluke. The guy hit nine home runs, drove in 56, batted .271, and stole a whopping 23 bases in just 125 games, and his OPS was .740. Even if I have three third basemen by pick 200, if Rojas is available I'm scooping him up. He's 2B-eligible too, so we have plenty of opportunities in larger leagues to play him at second, hot corner, middle infield, and utility.
Luis Rengifo, Angels (ADP: 328)
Rengifo has been my favorite late-draft infield flyer for a number of reasons. He has eligibility at second, third, and shortstop, he's only 26, and he's smashing the baseball this spring like my infant smashes pots and pans while I'm trying to sleep. The third-year infielder quietly hit 17 homers, swiped six bags, and drove in 52 RBIs last year in just 489 plate appearances, so just imagine what a full season will look like. He has three homers and a steal in spring training to go along with a .385/.393/.846 slash line. Don't let him go undrafted!
