This time of year, fantasy football debates always tend to revolve around value: ADPs, risk vs. reward, bargains, potential breakouts, etc. Every fantasy owner wants to learn about the best sleepers to target and the potential bust candidates to avoid. When we dive deeper into the nuances of value, it makes sense for us to evaluate specific backfields for prospective usage patterns between the starter and handcuff. Perhaps no backfield with a clear starter and handcuff will be scrutinized ahead of drafts is in Dallas, where Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard both profile as potential fantasy contributors.
To the naked eye — or the casual football fan — Elliott stands in a class by himself in this conversation, multiple tiers above the likes of Pollard. Zeke has accomplished a ton since entering the league in 2016 when he became just the 10th rookie RB to be selected as an All-Pro. Since then, the Ohio State product has 56 career TDs, nearly 7,400 rushing yards, and he's 370 yards shy of 10,000 career scrimmage yards.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2022 fantasy cheat sheet
However, the fantasy football community very much focuses on "what have you done for me lately?" and "what will you do for me this coming season?" The studs of the running back position have been known to fluctuate from one season to the next, much more than any other position in the sport.
Could Tony Pollard be more valuable to fantasy owenrs this season? If not, could he at least return more value on draft-day investment? Let’s flesh out this discussion and evaluate the ins and outs of drafting one Cowboys back over the other.
2022 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Outlook 2022
The most obvious case for Elliott is his track record. He’s a two-time All-Pro and three-time Pro Bowler, he’s led the NFL in rushing twice, and he averaged the most rushing yards per game in three different seasons. He has logged double-digit rushing TDs in three different campaigns, including 2021.
Zeke may not be as efficient as he was in his first few NFL years — he averaged 4.7 yards per carry in his first three seasons compared to 4.3 over the past three — but he still flirts with a 60-percent carry share each year. At 26 last season, he recorded 237 rushing attempts and 284 total touches. The most intriguing part is his touches and production in the red zone.
Elliott turned 35 red-zone carries into 10 touchdowns last season and scored seven TDs on 17 carries inside the opponents’ 10. That’s tremendously efficient, as is his 15-of-19 catch rate within the red zone. His size (6-0, 228 pounds), strength, good hands, excellent vision, and footwork have kept him in the discussion of best NFL RBs year in and year out.
Elliott only fumbled the ball once in all of 2021, which is pretty amazing for a guy who touched the ball nearly 300 times and scored 12 total TDs. He’s the clear No. 1 back in a solid offense that has the easiest strength of schedule in ‘22. It’s easy to understand why folks are drafting him as the RB12 or better — and 30th overall or earlier — in their fantasy redraft leagues.
2022 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
Tony Pollard Fantasy Outlook 2022
Pollard doesn't have the track record of Elliott, and thus he gets much less shine -- but that might be the exact reason to consider targeting him on draft day.
Pollard finished the 2021 season tied with Cleveland’s Nick Chubb for most efficient running back, with a superb per-carry average of 5.5 yards. He also hauled in 39-of-46 targets, good for an 84.8-percent catch rate. That’s 12.5-percent higher than Zeke’s total catch rate, and he netted 2.5 more yards per catch than Zeke.
Pollard totaled 1,056 total yards in just 169 touches last season, good for 6.2 yards per touch. He’s 25, and unlike Elliott, he has never played fewer than 15 games in a season. Pollard’s rushing attempts and overall touches have increased incrementally in each of the past two seasons. In his sophomore campaign, his touches bumped up by 28. Last year, his third season, his touch count bumped up by 40.
The trends all point to another significant jump in volume and production for Pollard this season. He could easily move closer to a 50/50 split, similar to what we saw in years past with Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland or even what we saw with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams last season. Pollard makes the most of every opportunity, so it stands to reason that the usage (and touchdown production) should increase.
Even if he simply repeats his ‘21 production and finds the end zone a couple more times, Pollard seems well worth his ADP at 79. He only scored two TDs total last season, due mostly to receiving just 15 red-zone carries (and three within opponents’ 10-yard lines — feed him!), but if Zeke misses any time, Pollard immediately jumps into auto-start RB1 territory, much like Minnesota’s Alexander Mattison does every time Dalvin Cook suffers an injury.
2022 FANTASY SLEEPERS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | One from each team
The case against drafting Ezekiel Elliott
We dropped Elliott down to RB13 in our rankings this season, and quite frankly, that sometimes feels generous. Sure, he’s still a big, strong back with a diverse skill set, and his volume in the scoring zone — 139 total red-zone carries over the past three seasons — obviously makes him a hot commodity. However, the writing has been on the wall for a looming regression, and the best fantasy owners will cut bait like Bill Belichick before one of his Patriots players peaks out.
Three main issues exist that should serve as Zeke warning signs: usage, efficiency, and scoring production.
Elliot’s carries and touches have declined in each of the past three seasons. Take a look at his total volume numbers from 2018 through '21:
| Year | Age | Carries | Catches | Touches |
| 2018 | 23 | 304 | 77 | 381 |
| 2019 | 24 | 301 | 54 | 355 |
| 2020 | 25 | 244 | 52 | 296 |
| 2021 | 26 | 237 | 47 | 284 |
2022 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Overall
Now, let’s consider Zeke’s declining efficiency since ‘18. Have a gander.
| Year | Rush A/G | Rush Y/G | Rec. Y/G | Catch % | FPTs/G |
| 2018 | 20.3 | 95.6 | 37.8 | 81.1 | 16.8 |
| 2019 | 18.8 | 84.8 | 26.3 | 76.1 | 16.1 |
| 2020 | 16.3 | 65.3 | 22.5 | 73.2 | 11.5 |
| 2021 | 13.9 | 58.9 | 16.9 | 72.3 | 12.1 |
2022 RANKINGS TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs
Finally, let’s go over Zeke’s red-zone touchdown ratio and what percentage of Zeke's fantasy points have come from touchdowns:
| Year | RZ Att. | RZ TDs | RZ TD% | Tot. TDs | Tot. FPTs | FPTs from TDs |
| 2018 | 39 | 5 | 12.8 | 9 | 252.1 | 21.4% |
| 2019 | 59 | 11 | 18.6 | 14 | 257.7 | 32.5% |
| 2020 | 45 | 6 | 13.3 | 8 | 171.7 | 27.9% |
| 2021 | 35 | 10 | 28.5 | 12 | 205.1 | 35.1% |
It’s easy to fall for the big names in fantasy, but nostalgia never wins us championship trophies. These trends demonstrate very clearly that Elliott is in the middle of a sharp decline disguised by touchdown volume. Judging by opportunity and efficiency, those '21 TD numbers are due for serious regression, even with the Cowboys’ cake schedule.
Everything about Zeke's numbers tells us he's past his prime except for the 12 TDs aided by an absurd 28.5-percent red-zone TD percentage. Those TDs accounted for a whopping 35-percent of his fantasy points. It won't happen again, I'd bet my fantasy life on it. Elliott could very well be a third-round bust. Grabbing him in the second round could be a napalm bomb to your whole season. In the words of Walter White, “tread lightly.”
2022 FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY:
Snake drafts | Auctions | Dynasty | Best ball | IDP
The case against drafting Tony Pollard
Of course, Pollard could fall victim to further usage limitations, especially in the red zone. Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore have exhibited odd levels of loyalty to their starters throughout their careers. Maybe they honestly see Zeke as the better option and will continue to ride him despite Pollard’s clear superiority in per-carry efficiency.
But I’m not buying it. You can’t overlook what all these trends suggest — these backs are on polar-opposite trajectories, and Pollard is a vital asset who can greatly contribute to chain-moving and win-stacking. He won't be a bust at an ADP of 79 unless he gets hurt.
2022 CONSISTENCY RATINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Final verdict: Which Cowboys RB has more fantasy value?
UPDATE: With star offensive lineman Tyron Smith suffering an avulsion fracture in one of his knees, which will keep him out until at least December, both Cowboys' RBs take a slight hit in value.
In keeper leagues, we decide every year which players are worth holding at specific keeper costs/rounds. We do value/cost analysis, just like we do when buying everyday items to stay within budget. For instance, this year I must decide whether to keep Travis Kelce in the second round or Josh Allen in the fifth. As elite tight ends are harder to come by than QBs, Kelce will probably be the play. In the same sense, we must also weigh out RB values by targeted rounds.
Quite simply, Elliott at his ADP of 30 is a much less valuable pick than Pollard at his ADP of 79. Elliott’s usage numbers year to year paint a vivid picture of a player whose best days are behind him, and we’ve seen in years past that he struggles as a fantasy producer if he’s not getting into the end zone. Like we said, he’s a questionable second-round pick and might even be a low-upside third-round pick.
Meanwhile, Pollard is coming off a season in which he posted career-highs in rushing attempts (130), targets (46), and just about every stat beyond TDs. No NFL back bested his 5.5 yards per carry average or 2.5 yards per route run, and only three backs with at least 100 carries averaged more yards after contact per attempt. He also had the third-best catch rate (84.8 percent) and breakaway run rate (8.5 percent).
Pollard is a very good standard-league investment in the late fifth or early sixth round and an even better pick in PPR leagues. Kellen Moore has suggested he will feature Pollard's pass-catching abilities more this season, even lining him up split wide to create mismatches. Elliott’s declining catch rates and inability to create route separation — combined with Dallas WR James Washington’s foot injury, which could force him to miss up to 10 games — means the opportunities for increased touches will come early and often for Pollard.
I’d take Pollard over Kareem Hunt and Miles Sanders in an absolute heartbeat. The Memphis product is easily the best RB handcuff, but he’s startable as a flex even if he’s not the first Cowboy RB to touch the ball each game. If he jumps Zeke, or if Zeke gets hurt at any point, Pollard becomes an RB1 lock with the potential to yield league-winning numbers.
